You know a top just HAS to be near!
Showing posts with label gold futures. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gold futures. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
When the Today Show is Talking About Gold's Rise Due to the Weak Dollar...
You know a top just HAS to be near!
I know I've been early on this call - or wrong (same thing) - for a few months now. But this had to take the cake.
There I was, tying the laces on my sneakers, getting ready to walk my dog Banjo on this crisp, cool 34 degree Sacramento morning. And there they were on the Today show, yucking it up about the rising price of gold!
Here's my re-enactment of the conversation:
***
Gal Who Replaced Katie Couric: And gold continues it's rise this morning. How about that for a Holiday gift!
Token CNBC Money Honey: That's right, gold has climbed past $1200 per ounce, and there appears to be no end in sight!
Gal Who Replaced Katie Couric: What's driving gold's rise?
Token CNBC Money Honey: Well it's really being driven by the weak dollar.
Me: Agh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
***
Look - the dollar is not GOING to crash - it has ALREADY crashed!
To paraphrase Bruce Springsteen - the dollar's been going down, down, down since 2002.
(Source: Barchart.com)
The Today Show/CNBC failed to mention that despite all of the pessimism on the dollar, it has still not dropped below it's 2007 levels. A breach of which, by the way, would cause me to scream Uncle and admit I was wrong.
But when Matt Lauer & Co jump on the rising gold/falling dollar trade, one would have to believe that this trade is pretty well played out. In fact, I see that gold and stocks are retreating since I saw the TV clip. How poetic would it be if gold topped on the exact day of this clip?
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
How to Time Gold Stocks Using the BPI
Some interesting trading research and musings by Jeff Clark today, as he describes a method to time the buying and selling of gold stocks.
Clark's found that when the eight-day moving average crosses above the bullish percent index, it's time to buy - and when the converse happens, it's time to sell, or go short. It's a twist on the popular method of timing stocks using the BPI. Clark says a little adjustment is needed for gold stocks, due to their huge volatility.
I personally have become fascinated with these sentiment indexes recently. Over the weekend, I perused the Wall Street Journal, and concluded that at least anecdotally, gold seemed to be a little too popular right now.
Is the dollar a doomed currency? Of course it is. The problem is that everyone knows that right now. And when everyone is on one side of a trade, you know the other is due for a mega rally. Since it's tough to picture a scenario where both the dollar and gold rally, it may be wise to be cautious on gold for now, especially if you believe the buck is due.
Gold's latest assault on $1,000 ran out of steam soon after crossing the goal line -
at least for now.
(Source: Barchart.com)
Friday, May 01, 2009
Why Gold Is Going Much Higher Than $2,000
According to Wikipedia, the Tilt is a state of mental confusion in which a poker player adopts a less than optimal strategy, usually resulting in the player becoming over-agreesive. In this guest piece, Jeff Clark, one of our favorite analysts, explores how global economics are now "on Tilt", driven, with wreckless decision after wreckless decision being handed down by our fearless government bureaucrats.
What does this mean for gold? Read on and find out!
***
By Jeff Clark, Editor, BIG GOLD
Gold isn’t going to $2,000 an ounce.
Before you gag on your coffee or suffer chest pains, allow me to explain.
We’re about eight years into the bull market, and gold has breached the $1,000 level twice and has spent weeks trading above the old high of $850. Some observers are now saying that gold’s pretty much had its day and that once the recession is over, it will retreat for good.
However, the four-digit gold price we’ve seen so far is with no price inflation to speak of, no effects of the atrocious increase in the money supply, and despite a rising dollar. What happens to gold when each of those pictures gets turned upside down – high inflation, excess cash jolting the economy, and a falling dollar? After all, gold’s performance to date has been powered only by general anxiety, not by any visible erosion in the dollar’s value.
I decided to take a fresh look at calculations that could be used to appraise gold’s upside potential. No one of them, by itself, comes with compelling logic. But they all point in the same direction.
Gold’s Percentage Rise in the Last Bull Market. What if gold in this bull market repeats the percentage rise in the last bull market? In the 1970s gold rose from $35 to $850, a factor of 24.28. Our low in 2001 was $255.95. Multiply that by 24.28 and you get a gold price of $6,214 per ounce.
U.S. Gold Holdings to Money Supply: The M1 money supply consists of currency and checkable deposits. The U.S. government currently holds 286.9 million ounces of gold. If the government were to make each dollar redeemable by the amount of gold it possesses, we’d arrive at the following price for gold: $1.569 trillion ÷ 286.9 million oz. = $5,468.80 per ounce
Gold/Dow Ratio: The ratio was about “1” when gold peaked in 1980, meaning the Dow and gold were the same price. To restore that relationship at today’s stock prices would mean when the Dow is at 6,626, gold should be at $6,626/oz. Of course, we think it likely that the Dow will get a lot lower before gold peaks. But even if it drops all the way to 4,000, that would imply a gold price of $4,000/oz.
All the Money in the World vs. Gold Reserves: If the public eventually sees the paper game being run by the central banks for what it is, governments will be forced to back their currencies with gold (and perhaps other tangibles like silver). Assuming they had to go into the market and buy the gold needed to restore faith in their currencies, the numbers might look like this: Total central banks reserves (including gold holdings) = $4.8 trillion, divided by 929.6 million ounces total gold reserves held by all official institutions that issue currency = $5,246 gold price.
U.S. Gold Holdings to U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit: The size of a country's deficit or surplus would be of no consequence if all currencies were convertible into a fixed amount of gold. However, the dollar is increasingly considered a hot potato, and when the trade balance reverses, as it must, dollars will flow back to the U.S. and fuel domestic price inflation. Based on the cumulative trade deficit of $9.13 trillion (up from $6 trillion since June ‘07!) and U.S. gold holdings of 286.9 million ounces, the corresponding price of gold would be $31,822 per ounce.
U.S. Gold to U.S. Government Liabilities: Finally, the GAO (Government Accountability Office) calculates an income statement and balance sheet for the U.S. government. As you’d suspect, it is dominated by future liabilities for Medicare and Social Security. What if they had to be backed by the supply of gold? Official U.S. government liabilities now ring in at an incredible $55.2 trillion. To make good on that would require a $192,401 gold price.
No, we don’t think gold will hit $192,000 or even $32,000. And there really isn’t any surefire way to forecast the eventual high. But it’s clear that every weathervane is pointing in the same direction. So, yes, gold isn’t going to $2,000; it’s going higher.
Witness the Breakdown
When determining how to keep your wealth safe, the state of global affairs can be a powerful reminder that gold should be part of the strategy. And today our world, essentially, is on fire.
- Eastern Europe borders on bankruptcy. Brazil's economy is falling off a cliff. Ditto Mexico.
- Protests have erupted in Latvia, Chile, Greece, Bulgaria, Iceland, Dublin, and parts of the U.S. Workers have gone on strike in Britain and France.
- In the U.S., 36 states and the District of Columbia have proposed or implemented reductions in the civil workforce. (You think customer service is poor now...)
- An astounding one in nine homes, 14 million, sits empty in the U.S. The December median price of a home sold in Detroit was $7,500. More than 8.3 million homeowners were upside down on their mortgage in the fourth quarter. Freddie Mac's new CEO resigned after six months on the job.
- Last quarter, 12 U.S. banks failed, bringing the 2008 total to 25, the highest one-year death rate since 50 failed in 1993. More foreboding, another 252 banks joined the FDIC’s “problem list.” So far this year, 19 banks have failed.
- The central bank of Ukraine banned the early redemption of term deposits, the most popular form of savings in the country. Bank deposits have dropped 20% since September, as bank customers dodge the risk of getting locked in.
- The projected US$1.75 trillion federal budget deficit is almost four times the nation’s previous record-high budget deficit. The Times Square debt clock reads over $11 trillion. Japan’s now reads $7.8 trillion.
- High unemployment has become a worldwide epidemic, with the infection spreading.
- With world economies taking it on the chin, it’s little wonder that investor interest in gold as a safe haven is growing – a trend we expect to continue. And just wait until the dollar resumes its slide, the expanding money supply jolts the real economy, and inflation kicks in.
Both Hands on the Wheel
Given the ongoing turmoil and the swallowing darkness at the end of the crumbling economic tunnel, our recommended BIG GOLD strategy remains keeping one-third in cash, one-third in physical gold, and one-third in our selected gold stocks. New money for investment should be split among the same three categories; we just don’t see any safer places to be.
As economies around the world continue to shrink and governments continue administering larger doses of the wrong medicine, we’ll sit in relative comfort with our gold for protection and our stocks for profit. We expect the prices of both to rise as others join us.
***
More recent articles by Jeff Clark:
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Cotton Futures Hit 2009 Low - Weekly Commodities Review
Cotton Futures Hit 2009 Low
Cotton futures slumped to a 2009 low on bearish supply/demand news. Cotton's projected world stocks-to-use ratio hit their highest mark since 2004-2005.
We were stopped out of our position at $0.45, and this one hurt - I hate the idea of selling cotton at these prices - BUT, we always have to respect our stops, no matter how strong the desire to get some of these losses back.

Cotton has been dropping about $0.01 after going "limit down" $0.03 earlier in the week.
Next support for cotton appears to be at $0.41 - we'll continue to watch cotton and see if it retests it's old lows.
Looks like cotton may continue to circle the bowl until demand is able to stage some sort of recovery. I still believe we'll see $1 cotton sooner rather than later, as soon as these stimulus packages begin to take hold. All of this newly printed money will be looking for a home.
Coffee's Rocky Week
Coffee did not fare much better this week. We are holding on to our position right now, with a stop around the 113 mark.

We discussed coffee's long term supply/demand situation last week. We'll soon see if our timing on this trade was appropriate.
Gold Stocks Starting to Catch Some Air
The rally in gold, and gold stocks, continues to look very strong.
Gold set a 100-day high on February 12th at 954.0, and closed Friday at 942.2. While the barbaric relic may be due for a pullback, the chart undoubtedly goes from the "lower left to the upper right", as Dennis Gartman is fond of saying.
Even with gold rallying, gold stocks are following, but somewhat reluctantly. The Gamco Gold fund, where my wife's entire 401K resides, has doubled off its October lows, but is still about 30% below its highs from last spring.
I recently read that last spring's valuation on gold stocks really had $1100 or $1200 priced into them, which may explain why we're not back to that point, even with gold rallying to where it is.
It's also possible that gold stocks are a fantastic bargain right now, and are poised to start doing moonshots when gold takes off. Chris Mayer, my favorite Agora analyst, expects gold stocks to make all-time highs in 2009, partly thanks to lower input costs that will fuel (no pun intended) record earnings.
For more information on gold and gold stocks, I'd recommend checking out some of the articles written by Casey Research and Big Gold editors on our blog, such as this one.
---------------------------------------------
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $51,391.54
Weekly return: -17.1% :(
2009 YTD return: -38.2% :(
Prior year's results:
2008: -8%
2007: 175%
2006: 60%
2005: 805%
Initial stake: $2,000.00
(Had to add these historical facts in to keep me from smashing my head into my keyboard).
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, living expenses, and startup capital for our time management software company that was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal and Inc magazine.
Cotton futures slumped to a 2009 low on bearish supply/demand news. Cotton's projected world stocks-to-use ratio hit their highest mark since 2004-2005.
We were stopped out of our position at $0.45, and this one hurt - I hate the idea of selling cotton at these prices - BUT, we always have to respect our stops, no matter how strong the desire to get some of these losses back.

Cotton has been dropping about $0.01 after going "limit down" $0.03 earlier in the week.
Next support for cotton appears to be at $0.41 - we'll continue to watch cotton and see if it retests it's old lows.
Looks like cotton may continue to circle the bowl until demand is able to stage some sort of recovery. I still believe we'll see $1 cotton sooner rather than later, as soon as these stimulus packages begin to take hold. All of this newly printed money will be looking for a home.
Coffee's Rocky Week
Coffee did not fare much better this week. We are holding on to our position right now, with a stop around the 113 mark.

We discussed coffee's long term supply/demand situation last week. We'll soon see if our timing on this trade was appropriate.
Gold Stocks Starting to Catch Some Air
The rally in gold, and gold stocks, continues to look very strong.
Gold set a 100-day high on February 12th at 954.0, and closed Friday at 942.2. While the barbaric relic may be due for a pullback, the chart undoubtedly goes from the "lower left to the upper right", as Dennis Gartman is fond of saying.
Even with gold rallying, gold stocks are following, but somewhat reluctantly. The Gamco Gold fund, where my wife's entire 401K resides, has doubled off its October lows, but is still about 30% below its highs from last spring.
I recently read that last spring's valuation on gold stocks really had $1100 or $1200 priced into them, which may explain why we're not back to that point, even with gold rallying to where it is.
It's also possible that gold stocks are a fantastic bargain right now, and are poised to start doing moonshots when gold takes off. Chris Mayer, my favorite Agora analyst, expects gold stocks to make all-time highs in 2009, partly thanks to lower input costs that will fuel (no pun intended) record earnings.
For more information on gold and gold stocks, I'd recommend checking out some of the articles written by Casey Research and Big Gold editors on our blog, such as this one.
Open positions
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/16/09 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Corn | 374 3/4 | 363 1/2 | ($562.50) |
| 01/20/09 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Corn | 397 1/2 | 363 1/2 | ($1,700.00) |
| 02/06/09 | Long | 1 | MAY 09 | Coffee 'C' | 121.95 | 114.75 | ($2,700.00) |
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions | ($4,962.50) | ||||||
Account Balances
| Current Cash Balance | $36,354.04 |
| Open Trade Equity | ($4,962.50) |
| Total Equity | $31,391.54 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $31,391.54 |
---------------------------------------------
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $51,391.54
Weekly return: -17.1% :(
2009 YTD return: -38.2% :(
Prior year's results:
2008: -8%
2007: 175%
2006: 60%
2005: 805%
Initial stake: $2,000.00
(Had to add these historical facts in to keep me from smashing my head into my keyboard).
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, living expenses, and startup capital for our time management software company that was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal and Inc magazine.
Sunday, February 08, 2009
Coffee Perking Up? - Weekly Commodities Review
Coffee Perking Up?
Long-time readers know that we've been quite bullish on coffee for some time in this space. So on Friday, when I received an email from my commodity broker, Robert, about possibly initiating a coffee position, I was extremely intrigued.
We wrote this article about coffee for Seeking Alpha last August.

Here are the near term factors that may spur an upcoming coffee rally:
http://www.insidefutures.com/article/94842/Foods%20and%20Softs%20Outlook%20for%20February%206,%202009.html
In summary, expect demand to stay strong, and let's keep an eye on the supply picture for potential shortages. Anyone in Brazil care to share a weather report with us?

Stopped Out of Soybeans - Corn Flat
We were stopped out of our two mini-soybeans positions mid-week. Beans rallied to finish the week, as did corn and wheat.
I like the double-bottom formed by corn this week. Had our stop in at 350 and it held.
Looking at this chart - wow, if this isn't a classic Fibonacci Retracement - gaining back 50-62.5% of the previous move down. If anyone knows how to identify the bottom in real-time, let us know!

---------------------------------------------
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $57,855.10
Weekly return: -2.5%
2009 YTD return: -25.5% :(
Prior year's results:
2008: -8%
2007: 175%
2006: 60%
2005: 805%
Initial stake: $2,000.00
(Had to add these historical facts in to keep me from smashing my head into my keyboard).
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, living expenses, and startup capital for our time management software company that was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal and Inc magazine.
Long-time readers know that we've been quite bullish on coffee for some time in this space. So on Friday, when I received an email from my commodity broker, Robert, about possibly initiating a coffee position, I was extremely intrigued.
We wrote this article about coffee for Seeking Alpha last August.
Long-term fundamentals are very favorable for long positions. The world continues to increasingly caffeinate itself with coffee, driven by - you guessed it - China and the rest of East Asia. A small but growing coffee market continues to gain ground on tea, the traditional caffeinated drink of choice.
On the supply side, most of the world's coffee comes from Brazil. So coffee supplies are heavily dependent on the quality of the Brazilian harvest, for better or for worse.
Coffee fundamentals are set up for us to see a super spike over the next 5 years. I firmly believe we'll see $2+ coffee at some point. And coffee has not yet had a major run up, like many of the other agricultural commodities - so it's certainly due.
As you can see from the long-term chart, coffee has been in a bull market since 2001 - due to many of the reasons we've discussed above:
Here are the near term factors that may spur an upcoming coffee rally:
- Coffee demand in China is projected to continue to grow 20% annually, despite the current recession/depression
- Coffee consumption has a tendency to increase during recessions - consumption in coffee shops takes a hit, but people brew more at home
- The International Coffee Organization said earlier this month the 2009-10 crop could see a 5-million 60-kilogram bag shortfall in world supplies - note: coffee harvests have off-years every other year
http://www.insidefutures.com/article/94842/Foods%20and%20Softs%20Outlook%20for%20February%206,%202009.html
In summary, expect demand to stay strong, and let's keep an eye on the supply picture for potential shortages. Anyone in Brazil care to share a weather report with us?

Stopped Out of Soybeans - Corn Flat
We were stopped out of our two mini-soybeans positions mid-week. Beans rallied to finish the week, as did corn and wheat.
I like the double-bottom formed by corn this week. Had our stop in at 350 and it held.
Looking at this chart - wow, if this isn't a classic Fibonacci Retracement - gaining back 50-62.5% of the previous move down. If anyone knows how to identify the bottom in real-time, let us know!

Open positions
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/16/09 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Corn | 374 3/4 | 377 | $112.50 |
| 01/20/09 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Corn | 397 1/2 | 377 | ($1,025.00) |
| 12/31/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Cotton | 48.52 | 49.80 | $640.00 |
| 02/06/09 | Long | 1 | MAY 09 | Coffee 'C' | 121.95 | 121.50 | ($168.75) |
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions | ($441.25) | ||||||
Account Balances
| Current Cash Balance | $38,296.35 |
| Open Trade Equity | ($441.25) |
| Total Equity | $37,855.10 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $37,855.10 |
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $57,855.10
Weekly return: -2.5%
2009 YTD return: -25.5% :(
Prior year's results:
2008: -8%
2007: 175%
2006: 60%
2005: 805%
Initial stake: $2,000.00
(Had to add these historical facts in to keep me from smashing my head into my keyboard).
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, living expenses, and startup capital for our time management software company that was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal and Inc magazine.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Weekly Commodities Review - Next Stop: Gold $1,000
Next Stop: Gold $1,000
Gold has a date with destiny. Destiny may not be at the bar yet, but she's now definitely circling the parking lot, looking for an open spot outside the Gold $1,000 comeback party.

My comments on gold from last week's commentary, which were verified to some extent by the continued rally this week:
Adam Hewison of INO.com believes the gold market is getting wound up, ready to explode higher (check out his free video here). Long time readers know that I believe gold is heading much higher, because inflation is heading much higher.
Inflation is already through the roof - it's just that we are not yet experiencing the effects of this newly printed money, because the velocity of money has dropped off so sharply. Not that this has been any consolation to my wife - who I "protected" last July by shifting her entire 401K into gold stocks. I may have hit the exact short-term top in gold stocks.
I think Bernanke is fighting the wrong battle. As a student of the Great Depression, he's working to prevent deflation at all costs. And in the end, I think he'll be successful - and bring us a true inflationary nightmare.
Grains Still Rangebound
The grains were off a bit on the week, but still holding above the near-term resistance levels. We continue to hold, with stops set at our customary 15-day lows.

Cotton Down Slightly
Cotton dropped a bit over 1 cent this week. I'm not particulary concerned - this slowwwwwww developing uptrend still appears to be in place.

While demand for cotton is taking it on the chin, cotton supply seems to be taking an even harder fall. The Commodity Research Bureau projects that global cotton output will fall 7.4%, which outpaces the 6.1% year over year fall in global cotton consumption the USDA is projecting.
---------------------------------------------
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $58,815.58
Weekly return: -5.3% :(
2009 YTD return: -23.6% :(
Prior year's results:
2008: -8%
2007: 175%
2006: 60%
2005: 805%
Initial stake: $2,000.00
(Had to add these historical facts in to keep me from smashing my head into my keyboard).
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, living expenses, and startup capital for our time management software company that was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal and Inc magazine.
Gold has a date with destiny. Destiny may not be at the bar yet, but she's now definitely circling the parking lot, looking for an open spot outside the Gold $1,000 comeback party.

My comments on gold from last week's commentary, which were verified to some extent by the continued rally this week:
Adam Hewison of INO.com believes the gold market is getting wound up, ready to explode higher (check out his free video here). Long time readers know that I believe gold is heading much higher, because inflation is heading much higher.
Inflation is already through the roof - it's just that we are not yet experiencing the effects of this newly printed money, because the velocity of money has dropped off so sharply. Not that this has been any consolation to my wife - who I "protected" last July by shifting her entire 401K into gold stocks. I may have hit the exact short-term top in gold stocks.
I think Bernanke is fighting the wrong battle. As a student of the Great Depression, he's working to prevent deflation at all costs. And in the end, I think he'll be successful - and bring us a true inflationary nightmare.
Grains Still Rangebound
The grains were off a bit on the week, but still holding above the near-term resistance levels. We continue to hold, with stops set at our customary 15-day lows.

Cotton Down Slightly
Cotton dropped a bit over 1 cent this week. I'm not particulary concerned - this slowwwwwww developing uptrend still appears to be in place.

While demand for cotton is taking it on the chin, cotton supply seems to be taking an even harder fall. The Commodity Research Bureau projects that global cotton output will fall 7.4%, which outpaces the 6.1% year over year fall in global cotton consumption the USDA is projecting.
Open positions
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/16/09 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Corn | 374 3/4 | 378 1/2 | $187.50 |
| 01/20/09 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Corn | 397 1/2 | 378 1/2 | ($950.00) |
| 12/31/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Cotton | 48.52 | 49.50 | $490.00 |
| 01/13/09 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Mini Soybeans | 987 1/4 | 981 1/2 | ($57.50) |
| 01/13/09 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Mini Soybeans | 989 1/4 | 981 1/2 | ($77.50) |
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions | ($407.50) | ||||||
Account Balances
| Current Cash Balance | $39,223.08 |
| Open Trade Equity | ($407.50) |
| Total Equity | $38,815.58 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $38,815.58 |
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $58,815.58
Weekly return: -5.3% :(
2009 YTD return: -23.6% :(
Prior year's results:
2008: -8%
2007: 175%
2006: 60%
2005: 805%
Initial stake: $2,000.00
(Had to add these historical facts in to keep me from smashing my head into my keyboard).
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, living expenses, and startup capital for our time management software company that was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal and Inc magazine.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Oil/Gold Ratio at 10-Year Extreme
Oil has not been this cheap relative to gold in 10 years, expert trader Jeff Clark writes in today's Growth Stock Wire. He believes it's time to go long oil.
The last time the ratio was this high, back in 1999, oil quadrupled from $10 per barrel to over $40 in just one year. A similar move this time will generate big gains for anyone willing to buck the trend and buy oil today.
So if you missed the shot at buying gold near $800 per ounce last week, then don't miss your shot at oil right now.
The last time the ratio was this high, back in 1999, oil quadrupled from $10 per barrel to over $40 in just one year. A similar move this time will generate big gains for anyone willing to buck the trend and buy oil today.
So if you missed the shot at buying gold near $800 per ounce last week, then don't miss your shot at oil right now.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
How to Buy Physical Gold
Interested in buying physical gold to protect yourself from the coming inflationary holocaust? Here's a quick primer on the ins and outs of buying, and taking possession of, physical gold.
Going Long
Finding Elusive Gold in This Market
By the editors of BIG GOLD, Casey Research
At this writing, gold is still 15% off its peak, at least in U.S. dollars. Yet at the same time, the metal is cruising at or near all-time highs against a host of other currencies, including the Swiss franc, British pound, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Indian rupee.
That currency disparity means buyers around the world are prepared to pay much more for gold, relative to their own currencies, than is reflected in the New York spot market, which prices gold in dollars.
Demand for gold coins in particular is running so high that there were severe shortages in 2008. Dealers’ shelves emptied, mints either rationed their output or stopped producing entirely, and premiums over the spot price rose dramatically. All of which implies that the metal’s bull market is far from over. Yet taking advantage of the trend becomes problematic if you can’t get what you want.
Sure, you can buy as much paper gold as you like, through the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE.GLD), which is bullion-backed and will be sensitive to an advancing price. But what if you simply want physical metal and want it in quantity – say, a hundred ounces?
Well, you could buy 100 coins. If you could find them. Or you could buy a single 100-ounce bar.
Take heed: if you are buying in 100-ounce, 400-ounce or 1-kilo sizes, you want a good delivery bar, one that carries a hallmark from a recognized refiner. And buy only from a source you have a good reason to trust. The gold trade has been replete with con artists since ancient metalworkers began hammering on the shiny stuff and found they could increase their profit margins by adding in a little silver, copper, or even lead. With 100 ounces going for upwards of US$85,000, caution is in order.
Once you’re ready to commit to a 100-ounce buy, the next logical question is: Is there any way to avoid the big premiums and acquire what you want at spot? The answer, fortunately, is yes. You can elect to play with the big boys and get your 100-ounce bar on the COMEX, where the bullion banks and giant funds do their trading.
Playin’ the COMEX
The COMEX is primarily a paper market, with speculators going long or short on contracts for future delivery. 99.9% of those contracts get settled in cash and are closed out before the delivery date arrives, with participants pocketing profits or taking their lumps. Very little physical gold changes hands through COMEX trading.
But some does, because every participant who goes long has the right to pay in full and insist on actual delivery. And every participant who goes short has the right to deliver the goods and get paid. Those trades represent the other 0.1% of the contracts.
The Casey COMEX User's Manual
First, get a little more acquainted with the topic. Log on to the COMEX gold section at (http://www.nymex.com/gol_pre_agree.aspx) and have a look around.
Pay close attention to the Current Session Overview. It gives you a real-time picture of trading, with the various delivery months displayed, along with the price per ounce being bid. (With gold, the months further out nearly always have higher prices, a situation known in the commodities trade as contango. The opposite, when near-term prices exceed those down the road, is called backwardation, and for gold it’s extremely rare.)
If you decide to proceed with the idea of buying on the COMEX, you have to open an account with a futures broker. To do that, you’ll need to answer some questions about your financial status and then make a deposit. We spoke with an agent at Lind-Waldock in Chicago, one of the oldest and most active futures brokers, to learn about their requirements.
First, at Lind-Waldock, you must have a yearly income and net worth of at least $25,000 and $50,000, respectively; anyone who can afford a hundred ounces of gold will surely qualify. Then you must deposit a minimum of $5,000 with the broker. Finally, you choose from among several levels of service, which affects the amount of commission you’ll pay.
Once the futures account is in place, you’re set to go.
Let’s say the bid price three months out is $850/oz., and you like gold at that price. You call your broker and place an order at $850, for one gold contract (which represents a single 100-oz. bar of good delivery metal). As with bidding on a stock, you may not get what you want if the market is heading up and runs away from your price. The alternative is to place a market order, trusting that it gets filled at close to your target price, but that can be risky in a fast-moving market.
Let's assume you get your contract and lock up what you’ll pay for the gold, most of which will be due at expiration. What next? There are two possibilities. You can just deposit the full cost of the gold, sit back, and enjoy the wait for your prize. Or you can deposit the minimum amount required (the minimum “margin”), which varies and is set at the exchange’s discretion. For a single gold contract at the moment, it’s $5,800, or about 7% of the contract’s value.
That’s how the speculators play the market, putting up as little front money as possible. For you, that won’t be a problem if the price of gold rises, since the broker will be crediting a matching amount of cash to your account on a daily basis. But you have to be careful if the price of gold falls, because the broker will then charge your account for a matching amount of money day by day – and to keep the balance from going below the minimum margin requirement, he’ll send you a margin call, insisting that you deposit more cash. If you fail to do so, the broker will enter a sale order for you, and you’ll be out of the market.
Changes in the value of a futures contract, with their attendant shifting cash requirements, are of critical importance to traders who are simply playing with paper. Since you’re only interested in acquiring a physical gold bar, the fluctuations shouldn’t affect you. Just make sure you have enough money in your account that you’re not inadvertently sold out.
Then, on the settlement date, your account will be charged for an amount equal to the settlement price multiplied by the exact weight of the particular bar that’s been assigned to you (a “100-oz.” COMEX good delivery bar can actually vary in weight between 95 and 105 ounces). This is when everything gets squared up.
Taking Delivery
If you keep your position open until delivery, the COMEX will hand your broker a warehouse receipt with the details of your specific bar (hallmark, serial number, and weight to one-thousandth of an ounce). The broker can either hold the receipt in your account or mail it to you. (If you take possession of a warehouse receipt, be aware that it’s an irreplaceable bearer instrument. Don’t lose it!)
Your bar will be sitting in the vault of one of the four designated COMEX depositories, all of which are in or near New York City. If you want to bring the bar home, you’ll have to pick it up at the depository or arrange for third-party delivery. If you intend to hold it until gold reaches a certain price and then sell, your best bet is probably to leave the bar in the COMEX depository and leave the receipt with your broker.
We called Scotia Mocatta, which operates one of the COMEX-designated vaults, and were quoted a storage fee of $15/month per bar. If, however, you want the bar in your hands, you’ll have to pay a $150 delivery fee to get the bar released by the depository. Then you’re responsible for retrieving it, which could be a problem.
Unless you want to put the bar in your suitcase and fly home with it, you’ll have to have it delivered. You can’t ship a gold bar via the U.S. mail, FedEx or UPS; you have to hire an armored car service, such as Brinks.
Shipping costs depend, of course, on how far your gold will travel from the City. VIA MAT International (USA) gave us a ballpark figure of $150 to transport one gold bar from New York to California – a heckuva lot cheaper than airfare, and you get to keep your shoes on.
One final note: armored carriers won’t deliver to a house address. You would have to arrange to receive the shipment at a business, which could be an additional worry if neither you nor a trusted friend owns one. Or you could have it delivered to your bank and slide it into a safe deposit box, provided you don’t mind the bank’s employees knowing what you’re doing.
Will You Need an Assay?
If you leave your gold bar in the COMEX depository, it will be easier to sell. You just go through the above procedure in reverse, going short a contract instead of buying one.
However, if you take physical delivery and later wish to sell through the COMEX (or through a private dealer), you will need to have the bar reassayed. A prospective buyer of such a costly item must be certain that it was genuine to begin with and hasn’t been tampered with while in your possession.
The COMEX provides a list of approved assayers on its website. The one we contacted, Ledoux and Co., quoted us $300 per bar for the service.
And that’s all you need to know to get gold wholesale.
When it comes to anything gold, the BIG GOLD experts have the inside scoop on it… an invaluable service, especially in times like these, with gold serving as a crisis hedge. For just 22 cents a day, you’ll learn everything you need to know about gold, the physical metal, as well as the safest stocks of major gold producers, royalty companies, the best gold ETFs, and much more. Learn more about our 3-month, risk-free trial subscription with 100% money-back guarantee.
Going Long
Finding Elusive Gold in This Market
By the editors of BIG GOLD, Casey Research
At this writing, gold is still 15% off its peak, at least in U.S. dollars. Yet at the same time, the metal is cruising at or near all-time highs against a host of other currencies, including the Swiss franc, British pound, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and Indian rupee.
That currency disparity means buyers around the world are prepared to pay much more for gold, relative to their own currencies, than is reflected in the New York spot market, which prices gold in dollars.
Demand for gold coins in particular is running so high that there were severe shortages in 2008. Dealers’ shelves emptied, mints either rationed their output or stopped producing entirely, and premiums over the spot price rose dramatically. All of which implies that the metal’s bull market is far from over. Yet taking advantage of the trend becomes problematic if you can’t get what you want.
Sure, you can buy as much paper gold as you like, through the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE.GLD), which is bullion-backed and will be sensitive to an advancing price. But what if you simply want physical metal and want it in quantity – say, a hundred ounces?
Well, you could buy 100 coins. If you could find them. Or you could buy a single 100-ounce bar.
Take heed: if you are buying in 100-ounce, 400-ounce or 1-kilo sizes, you want a good delivery bar, one that carries a hallmark from a recognized refiner. And buy only from a source you have a good reason to trust. The gold trade has been replete with con artists since ancient metalworkers began hammering on the shiny stuff and found they could increase their profit margins by adding in a little silver, copper, or even lead. With 100 ounces going for upwards of US$85,000, caution is in order.
Once you’re ready to commit to a 100-ounce buy, the next logical question is: Is there any way to avoid the big premiums and acquire what you want at spot? The answer, fortunately, is yes. You can elect to play with the big boys and get your 100-ounce bar on the COMEX, where the bullion banks and giant funds do their trading.
Playin’ the COMEX
The COMEX is primarily a paper market, with speculators going long or short on contracts for future delivery. 99.9% of those contracts get settled in cash and are closed out before the delivery date arrives, with participants pocketing profits or taking their lumps. Very little physical gold changes hands through COMEX trading.
But some does, because every participant who goes long has the right to pay in full and insist on actual delivery. And every participant who goes short has the right to deliver the goods and get paid. Those trades represent the other 0.1% of the contracts.
The Casey COMEX User's Manual
First, get a little more acquainted with the topic. Log on to the COMEX gold section at (http://www.nymex.com/gol_pre_agree.aspx) and have a look around.
Pay close attention to the Current Session Overview. It gives you a real-time picture of trading, with the various delivery months displayed, along with the price per ounce being bid. (With gold, the months further out nearly always have higher prices, a situation known in the commodities trade as contango. The opposite, when near-term prices exceed those down the road, is called backwardation, and for gold it’s extremely rare.)
If you decide to proceed with the idea of buying on the COMEX, you have to open an account with a futures broker. To do that, you’ll need to answer some questions about your financial status and then make a deposit. We spoke with an agent at Lind-Waldock in Chicago, one of the oldest and most active futures brokers, to learn about their requirements.
First, at Lind-Waldock, you must have a yearly income and net worth of at least $25,000 and $50,000, respectively; anyone who can afford a hundred ounces of gold will surely qualify. Then you must deposit a minimum of $5,000 with the broker. Finally, you choose from among several levels of service, which affects the amount of commission you’ll pay.
Once the futures account is in place, you’re set to go.
Let’s say the bid price three months out is $850/oz., and you like gold at that price. You call your broker and place an order at $850, for one gold contract (which represents a single 100-oz. bar of good delivery metal). As with bidding on a stock, you may not get what you want if the market is heading up and runs away from your price. The alternative is to place a market order, trusting that it gets filled at close to your target price, but that can be risky in a fast-moving market.
Let's assume you get your contract and lock up what you’ll pay for the gold, most of which will be due at expiration. What next? There are two possibilities. You can just deposit the full cost of the gold, sit back, and enjoy the wait for your prize. Or you can deposit the minimum amount required (the minimum “margin”), which varies and is set at the exchange’s discretion. For a single gold contract at the moment, it’s $5,800, or about 7% of the contract’s value.
That’s how the speculators play the market, putting up as little front money as possible. For you, that won’t be a problem if the price of gold rises, since the broker will be crediting a matching amount of cash to your account on a daily basis. But you have to be careful if the price of gold falls, because the broker will then charge your account for a matching amount of money day by day – and to keep the balance from going below the minimum margin requirement, he’ll send you a margin call, insisting that you deposit more cash. If you fail to do so, the broker will enter a sale order for you, and you’ll be out of the market.
Changes in the value of a futures contract, with their attendant shifting cash requirements, are of critical importance to traders who are simply playing with paper. Since you’re only interested in acquiring a physical gold bar, the fluctuations shouldn’t affect you. Just make sure you have enough money in your account that you’re not inadvertently sold out.
Then, on the settlement date, your account will be charged for an amount equal to the settlement price multiplied by the exact weight of the particular bar that’s been assigned to you (a “100-oz.” COMEX good delivery bar can actually vary in weight between 95 and 105 ounces). This is when everything gets squared up.
Taking Delivery
If you keep your position open until delivery, the COMEX will hand your broker a warehouse receipt with the details of your specific bar (hallmark, serial number, and weight to one-thousandth of an ounce). The broker can either hold the receipt in your account or mail it to you. (If you take possession of a warehouse receipt, be aware that it’s an irreplaceable bearer instrument. Don’t lose it!)
Your bar will be sitting in the vault of one of the four designated COMEX depositories, all of which are in or near New York City. If you want to bring the bar home, you’ll have to pick it up at the depository or arrange for third-party delivery. If you intend to hold it until gold reaches a certain price and then sell, your best bet is probably to leave the bar in the COMEX depository and leave the receipt with your broker.
We called Scotia Mocatta, which operates one of the COMEX-designated vaults, and were quoted a storage fee of $15/month per bar. If, however, you want the bar in your hands, you’ll have to pay a $150 delivery fee to get the bar released by the depository. Then you’re responsible for retrieving it, which could be a problem.
Unless you want to put the bar in your suitcase and fly home with it, you’ll have to have it delivered. You can’t ship a gold bar via the U.S. mail, FedEx or UPS; you have to hire an armored car service, such as Brinks.
Shipping costs depend, of course, on how far your gold will travel from the City. VIA MAT International (USA) gave us a ballpark figure of $150 to transport one gold bar from New York to California – a heckuva lot cheaper than airfare, and you get to keep your shoes on.
One final note: armored carriers won’t deliver to a house address. You would have to arrange to receive the shipment at a business, which could be an additional worry if neither you nor a trusted friend owns one. Or you could have it delivered to your bank and slide it into a safe deposit box, provided you don’t mind the bank’s employees knowing what you’re doing.
Will You Need an Assay?
If you leave your gold bar in the COMEX depository, it will be easier to sell. You just go through the above procedure in reverse, going short a contract instead of buying one.
However, if you take physical delivery and later wish to sell through the COMEX (or through a private dealer), you will need to have the bar reassayed. A prospective buyer of such a costly item must be certain that it was genuine to begin with and hasn’t been tampered with while in your possession.
The COMEX provides a list of approved assayers on its website. The one we contacted, Ledoux and Co., quoted us $300 per bar for the service.
And that’s all you need to know to get gold wholesale.
When it comes to anything gold, the BIG GOLD experts have the inside scoop on it… an invaluable service, especially in times like these, with gold serving as a crisis hedge. For just 22 cents a day, you’ll learn everything you need to know about gold, the physical metal, as well as the safest stocks of major gold producers, royalty companies, the best gold ETFs, and much more. Learn more about our 3-month, risk-free trial subscription with 100% money-back guarantee.
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Weekly Commodities Review: Is Gold Breaking Out?
Gold Breaking Out?
Adam Hewison of INO.com believes the gold market is getting wound up, ready to explode higher (check out his free video here). Long time readers know that I believe gold is heading much higher, because inflation is heading much higher.
Inflation is already through the roof - it's just that we are not yet experiencing the effects of this newly printed money, because the velocity of money has dropped off so sharply.
Not that this has been any consolation to my wife - who I "protected" last July by shifting her entire 401K into gold stocks. I may have hit the exact top in gold stocks.
I think Bernanke is fighting the wrong battle. As a student of the Great Depression, he's working to prevent deflation at all costs. And in the end, I think he'll be successful - and bring us a true inflationary nightmare.

Rangebound Grains
A pretty quiet week in the grains, after last week's excitement (nausea). We continue to hold our corn and soybean positions, and are waiting for the market to tell us what to do next.


Cotton Rallies Late
A BIG Friday for cotton! The "Pakistan Observer" reports that cotton rallied on news a major merchant took out significant amounts of cotton from the exchange - hey, it's on the internet, so it must be true.
While demand for cotton is taking it on the chin, cotton supply seems to be taking an even harder fall. The Commodity Research Bureau projects that global cotton output will fall 7.4%, which outpaces the 6.1% year over year fall in global cotton consumption the USDA is projecting.

A Socialist Plea
Earlier this week, I felt compelled to step up to the plate and defend free market capitalism, after receiving this socialist plea from our local utility company.
What do you think - did I take it too far? Not far enough? You decide, Komrade!
Open positions
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/16/09 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Corn | 374 3/4 | 390 1/4 | $775.00 |
| 01/20/09 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Corn | 397 1/2 | 390 1/4 | ($362.50) |
| 12/31/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Cotton | 48.52 | 50.55 | $1,015.00 |
| 01/13/09 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Mini Soybeans | 987 1/4 | 1006 | $187.50 |
| 01/13/09 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Mini Soybeans | 989 1/4 | 1006 | $167.50 |
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions | $1,782.50 | ||||||
Account Balances
| Current Cash Balance | $39,223.08 |
| Open Trade Equity | $1,782.50 |
| Total Equity | $41,005.58 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $41,005.58 |
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $61,005.58
Weekly return: 0.6%
2009 YTD return: -19.3%
Prior year's results:
2008: -8%
2007: 175%
2006: 60%
2005: 805%
Initial stake: $2,000.00
(Had to add these historical facts in to keep me from smashing my head into my keyboard).
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, living expenses, and startup capital for our time management software company that was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal and Inc magazine.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Commodity Futures Weekly Review - January 11, 2009
Now for the weekly review of our commodity futures positions - current as of January 11, 2009.
First, our top blog posts from the past week:
- Is It (Finally) Time to Short US Treasuries - And Make a Fortune?
- China Starting to Regurgitate US Debt
- Marc Faber on Bloomberg: World War III Has Already Begun
A review of our trades and positions from the previous week:
- Sold our mini-gold futures contract - to make way for another grains contract. This was a position sizing move - gold had not yet hit our sell stop.
- Also sold our one cocoa futures contract - also for position sizing purposes. Cocoa was not performing as well as wheat, so we decided to add to our wheat position.
- Bought one more wheat futures contract - wheat put in a strong performance this week, up $0.20.

- Continued to hold one corn futures contract. This was an attempt to "pyramid" our grains position and diversify. Corn was up $0.02 on the week.

- Continued to hold one cotton futures contract - we LOVE cotton at these prices - as we've discussed with before in this space. Cotton was up slightly on the week.

- And finally, the dunce cap so far goes on our decision to eat our own dog food and short the 10-Year Treasury Note. We haven't lost hope yet, but will have to exit this position if new highs are hit. It won't be the first time we've gotten burned on this trade.

Commodities that appear quite beaten down - but we don't own them...yet...
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Natural Gas
- Silver
- Crude Oil
Open positions
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/29/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Corn | 422 1/4 | 412 | ($512.50) |
| 12/31/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Cotton | 48.52 | 49.33 | $405.00 |
| 01/06/09 | Short | 1 | MAR 09 | T-Note (10yr) | 123-285 | 125-220 | ($1,796.88) |
| 12/24/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Wheat | 579 1/4 | 630 | $2,537.50 |
| 01/06/09 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Wheat | 627 3/4 | 630 | $112.50 |
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions | $745.63 | ||||||
Account Balances
| Current Cash Balance | $47,783.90 |
| Open Trade Equity | $745.63 |
| Total Equity | $48,529.53 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $48,529.53 |
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $68,529.53
Weekly return: -2.1%
2009 YTD return: -4.5%
2008 return: -8%
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes - lately we've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance our time management software company that was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal and Inc magazine.
Sunday, January 04, 2009
Commodity Futures Review - January 4, 2009
Now for the weekly review of our commodity futures positions - current as of January 4, 2009.
First, our top blog posts from the past week:
- Expert Commodity Picks for 2009: Jim Rogers and Marc Faber
- GoldMoney Review: Gold Climbs for 8th Straight Year
- Jim Rogers on Kudlow: We're going to have an inflationary nightmare
Our coverage of Marc Faber's recent interview on CNBC from December 1st continues to see a lot of traffic.
A review of our trades and positions from the previous week:
- Continued to hold one cocoa futures contract - down on the week, mostly due to a sharp Friday drop.

- Continued to hold one mini-gold futures contract. Gold was stuck in the mud for the week - though it did wrap up an 8th consecutive up year vs. the US dollar.

- Continued to hold one wheat futures contract - up a bit for the week. Looking to add on further strength.

- Bought one corn futures contract. This was an attempt to "pyramid" our grains position and diversify - in hindsight, looking at the charts of each, wheat looks stronger, and we should have added to that position before initiating this one.

- Bought one cotton futures contract - we LOVE cotton at these prices - as we've discussed with before in this space.

Commodities that appear quite beaten down - but we don't own them...yet...
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Natural Gas
- Silver
- Crude Oil
Open positions
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/29/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Corn | 422 1/4 | 410 | ($612.50) |
| 12/15/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Cocoa | 2586 | 2506 | ($800.00) |
| 12/31/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Cotton | 48.52 | 48.90 | $190.00 |
| 12/24/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Wheat | 579 1/4 | 610 | $1,537.50 |
| 12/15/08 | Long | 1 | FEB 09 | Mini Gold | 836.6 | 877.3 | $1,351.24 |
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions | $1,666.24 | ||||||
Account Balances
| Current Cash Balance | $47,887.81 |
| Open Trade Equity | $1,666.24 |
| Total Equity | $49,554.05 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $49,554.05 |
---------------------------------------------
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $69,554.05
Weekly return: -2.5% *** since 1/1/09
YTD return: -2.5%
2008 return: -8%
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately we've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a cool new time management software startup that is starting to lift off - and was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Weekly Futures Positions Review - December 28, 2008
Top posts from the past week:
Our coverage of Marc Faber's recent interview on CNBC from December 1st continues to see a lot of traffic.
A review of our trades and positions from the previous week:
Our wish list...everything here looks beaten down...some starting to form a bottom it appears...
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $70,332.72
Weekly return: 4.9%
YTD return: -8.6%
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately we've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a cool new time management software startup that is starting to lift off - and was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal.
Our coverage of Marc Faber's recent interview on CNBC from December 1st continues to see a lot of traffic.
A review of our trades and positions from the previous week:
- Continued to hold one cocoa futures contract - up slightly on the week. Looking to add to this position on higher high's.
- Continued to hold one mini-gold futures contract - a nice bounce on Friday for Gold also made this position a solid performer on the week. Looking to pyramid if/when gold makes a serious run at $1,000.
- Purchased one wheat futures contract. All of the grains look like they are now breaking out - the corn and soybean charts look very similar. I think the grains are seriously oversold, and the bullish fundamentals are quite intriguing at these price points. I prefer wheat and corn over soybeans personally from a fundamental perspective.
Our wish list...everything here looks beaten down...some starting to form a bottom it appears...
- Sugar
- Coffee
- Cotton
- Natural Gas
- Silver
- Crude Oil
- Corn
Open positions
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/15/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Cocoa | 2586 | 2616 | $300.00 |
| 12/24/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 09 | Wheat | 579 1/4 | 599 | $987.50 |
| 12/15/08 | Long | 1 | FEB 09 | Mini Gold | 836.6 | 870.6 | $1,128.80 |
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions | $2,416.30 | ||||||
Account Balances
| Current Cash Balance | $47,916.42 |
| Open Trade Equity | $2,416.30 |
| Total Equity | $50,332.72 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $50,332.72 |
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $70,332.72
Weekly return: 4.9%
YTD return: -8.6%
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately we've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a cool new time management software startup that is starting to lift off - and was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Why eBay is the Best Indicator of Gold's Fair Value
We've discussed before how the paper market for gold can easily be manipulated - including recently that three US banks allegedly account for the majority of all net short positioning on the COMEX.
In the following article, the editors of Big Gold, a Casey Research publication, discuss how gold prices on eBay are the best indicator of the true price of gold. And they believe current prices are a steal.
The eBay Index
The one place that shows you how much gold is really worth
By the editors of BIG GOLD
Anyone who has watched the price of gold lately must have felt that something was off. While public demand for bullion coins went through the roof and major bullion dealers ran out of coins to sell, the spot gold price was flat, teetering between the upper 700- and lower 800-dollar range.
Managing Editor Jeff Clark of BIG GOLD wrote in the November 2008 newsletter:
Many dealers are out of 1-oz. coins, and not just here in the U.S. Londoners have been queuing up in front of coin shops; German suppliers are refusing new orders; demand exceeds mint capabilities in Canada, Australia, and South Africa; and Switzerland is working around the clock. If you’re fortunate enough to locate a source of coins, expect to pay an unusually high premium over the price of spot gold -- in the U.S. perhaps 10%, 15%, or more -- triple the normal level. Even then you may have to wait eight weeks or longer for delivery.
According to the laws of supply and demand, shouldn’t the spot price have skyrocketed?
Whatever the reason that it didn’t – hypotheses bounced around on the Internet ranged from deleveraging to governmental price manipulation – the BIG GOLD editors managed to find an unexpected indicator of the true value of gold that seems to be more reliable than the spot gold market itself…
The eBay Index.
Just like The Economist with its Big Mac Index or its modern cousin, CommSec’s iPod Index, both of which explain and compare the purchasing power of currencies, online auction house eBay makes an excellent yardstick for the true value of, well, just about everything.
In recent years, politics and economics seem to have entered an unholy alliance, thus increasingly obstructing the view on causes and effects in the markets. eBay, on the other hand, is the free market at its best and simplest. In other words, a seller’s item is worth exactly what a prospective buyer is willing to pay for it.
In April of this year, when the U.S. Mint rationed one-ounce, 2008 Silver Eagles to its thirteen authorized buyers, those same Silver Eagles sold on eBay for $25 apiece… nearly 50% over the then-spot price of $16.80.
Along the same lines, a few weeks ago, when gold was at $750/oz, one-ounce Gold Eagles got bids of $1,000 on eBay… a premium of 33% over spot price.
At the time of this writing, the availability of bullion coins has slightly improved, and major bullion dealers like Kitco.com have resumed offering some of their standard bullion products. Even though inventories are still selling like hotcakes, at least there is an inventory – and the eBay Index has reacted accordingly. Right now, with spot gold at $852, 2008 Gold Eagles are fetching bids of $876 on average… a premium of only 2.8% over spot.
This is a Christmas gift. It means any investor concerned about the government’s out-of-control printing of dollars has a window of opportunity to buy gold bullion at reduced markup. You can, at the moment, buy gold while both it and the underlying premiums are cheap. The eBay Index demonstrates that premiums can spike any time and without notice.
And since the editors of BIG GOLD recommend keeping 33% of your portfolio in gold bullion, it is well worth watching the eBay Index to gauge how high gold prices should be at any given time. For it is almost certain that the spot market will follow the Index sooner rather than later. Buy gold now before eBay signals premiums are expensive again.
***
Deflation today + government responses = inflation tomorrow. This means you would be well advised to own some physical gold, as well as crisis-proof stocks of major gold producers and quality ETFs. BIG GOLD is the monthly advisory for the prudent investor, focusing on precious metals investments that are safe havens in times of crisis. Learn more about it here.
In the following article, the editors of Big Gold, a Casey Research publication, discuss how gold prices on eBay are the best indicator of the true price of gold. And they believe current prices are a steal.
The eBay Index
The one place that shows you how much gold is really worth
By the editors of BIG GOLD
Anyone who has watched the price of gold lately must have felt that something was off. While public demand for bullion coins went through the roof and major bullion dealers ran out of coins to sell, the spot gold price was flat, teetering between the upper 700- and lower 800-dollar range.
Managing Editor Jeff Clark of BIG GOLD wrote in the November 2008 newsletter:
Many dealers are out of 1-oz. coins, and not just here in the U.S. Londoners have been queuing up in front of coin shops; German suppliers are refusing new orders; demand exceeds mint capabilities in Canada, Australia, and South Africa; and Switzerland is working around the clock. If you’re fortunate enough to locate a source of coins, expect to pay an unusually high premium over the price of spot gold -- in the U.S. perhaps 10%, 15%, or more -- triple the normal level. Even then you may have to wait eight weeks or longer for delivery.
According to the laws of supply and demand, shouldn’t the spot price have skyrocketed?
Whatever the reason that it didn’t – hypotheses bounced around on the Internet ranged from deleveraging to governmental price manipulation – the BIG GOLD editors managed to find an unexpected indicator of the true value of gold that seems to be more reliable than the spot gold market itself…
The eBay Index.
Just like The Economist with its Big Mac Index or its modern cousin, CommSec’s iPod Index, both of which explain and compare the purchasing power of currencies, online auction house eBay makes an excellent yardstick for the true value of, well, just about everything.
In recent years, politics and economics seem to have entered an unholy alliance, thus increasingly obstructing the view on causes and effects in the markets. eBay, on the other hand, is the free market at its best and simplest. In other words, a seller’s item is worth exactly what a prospective buyer is willing to pay for it.
In April of this year, when the U.S. Mint rationed one-ounce, 2008 Silver Eagles to its thirteen authorized buyers, those same Silver Eagles sold on eBay for $25 apiece… nearly 50% over the then-spot price of $16.80.
Along the same lines, a few weeks ago, when gold was at $750/oz, one-ounce Gold Eagles got bids of $1,000 on eBay… a premium of 33% over spot price.
At the time of this writing, the availability of bullion coins has slightly improved, and major bullion dealers like Kitco.com have resumed offering some of their standard bullion products. Even though inventories are still selling like hotcakes, at least there is an inventory – and the eBay Index has reacted accordingly. Right now, with spot gold at $852, 2008 Gold Eagles are fetching bids of $876 on average… a premium of only 2.8% over spot.
This is a Christmas gift. It means any investor concerned about the government’s out-of-control printing of dollars has a window of opportunity to buy gold bullion at reduced markup. You can, at the moment, buy gold while both it and the underlying premiums are cheap. The eBay Index demonstrates that premiums can spike any time and without notice.
And since the editors of BIG GOLD recommend keeping 33% of your portfolio in gold bullion, it is well worth watching the eBay Index to gauge how high gold prices should be at any given time. For it is almost certain that the spot market will follow the Index sooner rather than later. Buy gold now before eBay signals premiums are expensive again.
***
Deflation today + government responses = inflation tomorrow. This means you would be well advised to own some physical gold, as well as crisis-proof stocks of major gold producers and quality ETFs. BIG GOLD is the monthly advisory for the prudent investor, focusing on precious metals investments that are safe havens in times of crisis. Learn more about it here.
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