Interview with Sergey Kurzin, CEO of Junior Gold Miner Orsu Metals

The following is an interview Jeff Clark, co-editor of Casey’s International Speculator, conducted with Dr. Sergey Kurzin, a Casey Explorers’ League honoree. The Explorers’ League regularly inducts serially successful mine finders with at least three economic discoveries under their belts – a true accomplishment considering that most explorers don’t even have one economic find throughout their careers.

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Kazakhstan: A Positive Climate for Gold

Jeff Clark, Casey’s International Speculator, interviews Dr. Sergey Kurzin

We haven't interviewed Dr. Sergey Kurzin since his induction into the Explorers' League in October 2008. As you'll read, he's had his head down in Kazakhstan but is now ready to speak publicly about his company, Orsu Metals (T.OSU), a gold-copper exploration and development company operating in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Sergey is one of the most knowledgeable people we know about the politics in that region, including Russia. Here are his latest thoughts on his company and copper…

JEFF CLARK: It’s been two years since we talked, Sergey. Tell us what you've been doing.

DR. SERGEY KURZIN: I’ve been cleaning up the mess at our Varvarinskoye project, which we acquired from the merger with European Minerals. It was a very complicated arrangement with the banks, who could not agree with each other, and a very unforgiving, hostile, off-take agreement. On top of that, the output was hedged at $575 gold – can you imagine that at current prices? But the main problem was the deposit itself – the grades were 30% below what was stated in the reports. That’s why my head was down, to renovate this company. Now with this cleared up, we have put all our existing projects together and brought them to an advanced level.

Jeff: You’ve been operating in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan for 20-plus years now. Tell us about the business climate there.

Sergey: Well, the business climate, like everything, has its ups and downs. But one can quite comfortably operate in Kazakhstan. If you have a contract with the government, meaning a license or title, and you comply with the requirements of the contract, you don’t have a problem. You just get on with your business. When metal prices moved higher and people were making big profits, they increased taxation in Kazakhstan, as a lot of other countries did, but the climate is still positive.

Jeff: Would you consider Kazakhstan a pro-mining jurisdiction?

Sergey: Yes. Kazakhstan is predominately a natural resource country. It is a giant country with a low population. It has oil in the west and north, and metals in the central region and onwards to the east. They have oil, gas, uranium, gold, copper, zinc, chrome – what did I miss? All the metals you basically want are in Kazakhstan.

Jeff: What about the politics in Kazakhstan?

Sergey: Politically, it is stable. Perhaps it is not an identical democracy to the United Kingdom or Canada, but it is still a democracy as they understand it, in terms of consistency of legislation. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan has just had elections, which went peacefully.  The new government is democratically elected and has the support of both the United States and Russia, so I think it is going to be okay.

Jeff: How have you been able to navigate the political waters better than most other companies operating in that region?

Sergey: Well, thank you, that is a compliment. The fact is we’ve done quite a few positive things in Kazakhstan with my previous company, Oriel Resources. We took the Voskhod deposit through all the usual stages of development, obtained all the essential approvals at the regional and district level, and created jobs. I have partners in Kazakhstan who I have been working with for eighteen years. They know what they are doing in this part of the world, so in conjunction with them, we are working quite well.

Jeff: So it's important to have strong local partners.

s, it is usually because they don’t have reliable, trustworthy, long-term relations with a local partner. If you are in Canada, you don’t need such a partner. But in Kazakhstan – which is part of the former Soviet Union – there is a certain way people look at things. They were never part of the British Commonwealth or anything like that, so they look at things differently. I am a Russian by birth and an ex-Russian citizen and lived there for 30 years. I have a lot of people with a Russian background working in the company that help navigate these waters.

Jeff: How did Orsu secure property rights in Kazakhstan?

Sergey: We have a contract with the government and work in accordance with the contract, complying with all the terms and conditions. As long as you do this, you are in good shape.

Jeff: Speaking of Russia, how would you assess mineral exploration in the Russian Federation?

Sergey: Well, that is a very interesting question. As you know, Orsu Metals is not in Russia at the moment. Why? Because there is a federal law that controls strategic assets and creates risk for explorers. But to be honest – in my personal opinion – it has nothing to do with strategic assets. It has everything to do with Russian companies trying to reduce competition.

Jeff: How are they doing that?

Sergey: By keeping them from developing big strategic assets. I believe the Russians already realize that this law is a mistake, because it puts off major Western companies to mining. I think they are currently reconsidering the situation.

Jeff: What do you base that judgment on?

Sergey: Putin and his speeches. But Russia is a large country and pretty slow historically. How fast they will react, I don’t know. But they’re talking about it. At the moment, I am not sure if it is worth establishing yourself in deep Siberia for a project of less than 50 tonnes of gold – just over 1.5 million ounces – which is on the border of what's considered a strategic asset. It would be too expensive and too difficult logistically.

The problem Russia faces with all its restricting legislation and bureaucracy is basically the absence of any new exploration in the whole country! They still exploit and use what they had twenty years ago before the Soviet Union collapsed. So everything that was worth developing is basically taken. There is a lack of new projects, the existing ones are too expensive, and those still undeveloped are usually not worth the effort.

Jeff: Your flagship project is Karchiga in Kazakhstan. I read that you recently increased your interest from 70% to 94.75%.

Sergey: Yes. Karchiga is a copper play. There is a little bit of gold, but we are not even considering it. And Karchiga is the most advanced Orsu project, but not necessarily the largest. It has a lot of advantages, like the location being forty kilometers from the Chinese border. It is a well-defined area and within an historic copper mining belt. 

It is not expensive to develop. We hope to use a lot of Chinese equipment, which will give us some interesting project finance opportunities with potential Chinese off-take agreements. And the infrastructure is good. There are hard paved roads on the Chinese side and a couple of smelters in the vicinity. Electricity is 10 kilometers away, water is plentiful, and the landscape is very gentle. Our contract with the Kazakh government is good until 2022.

As of Q1 2010, we have a 43-101-compliant indicated resource of nine million tonnes at 1.87% copper and an inferred resource of 1.83 million tonnes at 1.6% copper. That's about 400 million pounds of copper, over a billion dollars worth. We expect to complete our definitive feasibility study in September 2011. So this is a good project to turn a company into a producer. We’ve done projects more complicated than this in Kazakhstan, and it is our firm target to complete construction by Q1 2013.

Jeff: I saw that China is investing $13 billion in Kazakhstan. 

Sergey: Kazakhstan is full of natural resources, which China desperately needs for its development and growth. It's easier to bring it from Kazakhstan than import it from South America or Africa. Kazakhstan has a thousand-kilometer border with China. Our Karchiga project is only forty kilometers from the border, so it’s a given synergy. And copper in particular is one of the key metals for infrastructure.

Jeff: So why should I buy shares of Orsu now?

Sergey: Because we have a major resource. Six million ounces of gold equivalent. And our enterprise value is $30 million. What is that, $5 an ounce? It’s a pretty strong case, I think. The company will grow, too. We will acquire added projects and are progressing the existing ones. We are strongly undervalued. If you can discount all the risks, we should be trading at five or six times where we are now. The fact is, we have a track record and a very good technical team. I’ve been on the road and there was big interest in Toronto, New York, and London. We’ve been very well received. I think the stock will see some movement. Nothing happens instantly, as you well know, so give me some time.

Jeff: We will. To wrap it up, Sergey, what do you see going forward with copper and gold?

Sergey: I will answer simply. I think that gold, for the foreseeable future, is not going down because it is a barometer of people's fear. But I’m even more bullish on copper because it is essential. Gold is an artificial thing, a safe haven, and insurance against currency devaluation. But copper – especially in Kazakhstan where you are next door to China – has a strong future. And don’t forget, India is not far away. Of course there will be hiccups, but the overall trend in copper is definitely up, in my opinion.

Jeff: Thanks for your time, Sergey. We'll be watching as you develop Orsu. 

Sergey: Thanks a lot.

[Finding junior mining stocks to invest in is easy… and so is losing your shirt in the process. Finding winning stocks, on the other hand, requires asking the right questions. Learn all about “The 8 Ps of Resource Stock Evaluation,” Doug Casey’s secret of success, in our FREE special report. Click here to read it.]

3 Reasons You Should Buy Silver Right Now

With sovereign nations around the globe printing money as fast as they can, what should you invest in to protect your savings?  Gold?

What about silver?  Unlike gold, it's actually far below it's all time high - and very cheap when compared with gold right now.

To explore the silver market further, we turn to Jeff Clark, our precious metals expert.  Jeff believes silver is indeed a good play right here - read on to learn why...

The 2010 Silver Buying Guide

By Jeff Clark, Senior Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report

Silver has been sizzling and causing lots of buzz in the industry. Investors are excited.

Part of the hubbub is due to its current run. Since its February 8 low, silver has roared ahead 22.4% (through June 21) and has doubled from its November 2008 low.

This excitement has spilled over into greater investment demand – especially so for coins. The U.S. Mint sold more Silver Eagles in the first quarter of this year – just over nine million – than any prior quarter in its history. The Royal Canadian Mint produced 9.7 million silver maple leafs in 2009, also a record.

Take a look at the jump in U.S. Mint coin sales since 2007.



Silver bullion ETFs are growing, too, experiencing a five-fold increase in metal holdings since 2006.

There’s plenty we could talk about with silver, but our goal is to make money. So let’s focus on answering just two questions: Is today’s price expensive or cheap? And, what are the best silver coins, ETFs, and stocks to own?

We have all the answers straight ahead, including lots of actionable info, so let’s jump right in...

Why Should I Buy Silver?

There are several reasons to own silver in addition to gold.

First, it’s cheaper! Known as the poor man’s gold, those with limited budgets will find it easier to purchase. You might hesitate plunking down $1,200 for an ounce of gold, but you can pick up 32 ounces of silver for half that amount.

Second, silver has wide industrial use and this component can help or hinder its price. As its consumption increases across a growing number of industries, this should help place a floor under demand. And because of its unique properties, new uses continue to be discovered.

Third, silver is money and has served this role more than any other material on earth, save gold. Due to its historical role, silver will always have monetary value and offer similar protection as gold to the ongoing global currency devaluations, and will definitely benefit from the inflation hurricane we see as inevitable.

Silver is more practical as a currency used for everyday purchases. When the time comes, you can sell the requisite number of silver coins to cover a specific need, as opposed to being forced to liquidate a high-dollar-value gold holding. Silver is perfect when smaller amounts of cash are required.

Fourth and last, silver could possibly outperform gold before this bull market is over. The market capitalization of silver (and silver stocks) is much smaller, making its price more susceptible to demand spikes than gold.

In the latter part of the 1970s precious metals bull market, gold gained over 700% – but silver soared over 1,400%. If you’ve got a bit of Gordon Gekko in you, we recommend investing a portion of your dollars in silver.

Caution - Hot!

Like all things, silver has its drawbacks, two in particular.

First, the price is volatile. Over the past 12 months, silver has seen gains of 53.8% and 22.9% and drops of 21.9% and 19.6%, all within a period of months or even weeks.

If you’re going to own silver, you must be prepared for big price gyrations. The best way to do that: buy it and forget about it. And...

►Make price volatility your friend. Big price swings present the opportunity to snag silver at a big discount. We give some guidance on prices below.

Second is the storage issue. As your pile grows, the advantage to storing gold will become self-evident. At $1,200 gold and $18.50 silver, $10,000 will get you eight gold eagles that will fit nicely in the credit card slots of your wallet; however, it will buy 540 silver eagles, weigh nearly 34 pounds, and fill a small bank safe deposit box.

►How to store physical silver. There are several ways to solve the storage dilemma, even if you plan to buy like the Hunt brothers.

1. Spread your holdings around. Not only is it wise to avoid keeping all your physical silver in one place, diversifying your storage arrangements allows you to buy more. Hide some at home in several locations (no cookie jars, though), and obviously tell only one trusted person. Store some in a bank safe deposit box and use more than one bank as your holdings grow.

2. Buy bars. Silver bars take up less space than a pile of coins of the same weight. We wouldn’t start out with nor have all our holdings in bars, because you want the advantage coins offer. But the larger your holdings, the easier it will be to store some of it in bar form.

3. Use pool accounts and unallocated storage. With a pool or unallocated account, you’re essentially getting free storage no matter how big your stash. That’s hard to beat. You’ll pay fabrication and delivery charges if/when you convert your holdings and take delivery, but in the meantime, you save on storage costs. Great value for the large holder.

4. Private storage. Store your silver with a private vaulting company. The advantage is that it’s outside the banking system; the disadvantage is that it’s usually expensive, though it can be cost effective for large holdings. Do your own due diligence if you go this route because we can’t vouch for any facility, but you could start by checking out delawaredepository.com. Keep in mind that using a vaulting facility beyond a reasonable driving distance will mean added shipping/insurance costs and restrict quick access.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy?

With the gains we’ve seen in silver, would we buy right now?

Let’s first look at the big picture. The following chart shows how far silver is below its inflation-adjusted peak reached in 1980.



Another clue some investors watch is the gold/silver ratio (gold price divided by silver price) shown below.



Since our current bull market in precious metals began in 2001, the ratio, while fluctuating wildly, has never gone below 45. And yet look where it went during the precious metals peak in 1980: it bottomed at 17. Even though gold was soaring at the time, silver outran it.

The ratio might show relative strength between gold and silver, but it’s not a good buying indicator. A falling ratio could mean silver is rising faster than gold, like it is currently, or it could mean silver is falling slower. As a result, we’d use the ratio to determine silver’s upside potential but not necessarily when to place an order.

These big-picture signals tell us silver is undervalued and, at the moment, a better bargain than gold. And given the currency crisis we’re convinced is in the cards, we wouldn’t want to be caught without any. If you have a long-term mindset, silver is a buy today.

Would we wait for a better price?

If you do not own any, and plan on holding what you buy until a mania develops, then we wouldn’t wait. The risk of buying silver at current prices is lower than owning none at all.

If you do own some but want to add to your holdings, we’d probably wait for a drop in price, in part because silver could more easily fall when the economy is found to be more fragile than what many believe. And with industrial uses comprising approximately half of silver’s demand, it would be more susceptible to sell-offs than gold if our research is correct about global economies.

Further, summer usually brings pullbacks in prices, and this can be especially true for silver stocks. This is the tendency, though we can’t be sure if this summer will follow past trends. Still, our best guess is to anticipate another leg down this year. If you already own silver, we’d look for a correction to add to your holdings.

In our opinion, owning no silver in this bull market would be a mistake. And your first (and biggest) investment in silver should be in a physical form.

How much physical silver should you have? There’s no right answer and one size will not fit all. But we do recommend holding more gold than silver. Our suggestion for your precious metal holdings is roughly 80% gold and 20% silver.

Like gold, silver comes in different forms. We’d start with the more popular one-ounce coins and then branch out into other types as your holdings grow.

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[The above is an excerpt from the May issue of Casey’s Gold and Resource Report. Find out our top recommended dealers, including special pricing, along with Jeff Clark’s picks for the “best silver ETF” and the “two best silver stocks in the world.” And our June issue is our annual Summer Buying Guide. You can check it all out risk-free, for just $39/year, with a 3-month, 100% money-back guarantee. Get it right here.]

Ed. note: I am a subscriber and affiliate of Casey's Gold and Resource Report.

Investing in Gold Stocks: So When Are We Gonna Get Rich Already?

As gold again approaches it's all-time high, gold stocks continue to be the source of frustration for many gold investors.  Exactly how bad does the financial situation need to get before gold goes to the moon?  


Casey Research's Jeff Clark takes a look at the historical performance of gold during previous bull markets, as he pieces together a guess about when he believes gold will take off...

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Gold Stocks: Math Today, Magic Tomorrow


By Jeff Clark, Senior Editor, Casey’s Gold & Resource Report


Here at Casey Research, we eagerly awaited the release of quarterly reports from the companies in our favorite sector. Why? The gold price was substantially higher last quarter than during the comparable meltdown quarter of 2008, so we were anxious to find out if it would lead to a spike in profits.


Gold and silver producers posted substantially higher net profits, and yes, much of it due to higher metals prices. But amazing to many, higher profits did not lead to higher – or at least not significantly higher – stock prices.


While most saw their stocks rise the day of their respective announcements, some actually fell if gold or the broader markets were down on the day. And they certainly didn’t jump like you might expect when “soaring profits” splashed the headlines of their press releases.


What gives?


We have some answers straight ahead, including a big fat clue as to when gold stocks will take off and give us those “magical” price levels we think are coming.


Gold Stocks Are Still Going to Take Off, Right?


We think that at some point the public is destined to participate in precious metals stocks, and when they do, we’ll see volumes jump and share prices take off.


But for now, gold stocks are playing follow the leader…

… rising and declining in tandem with the S&P since last April. So, until gold stocks separate from the overall market, we should anticipate they’ll tag along if the markets slide. And we think the path of least resistance for the stock market is down, not up, so caution is warranted about going overweight our stocks.



But just as we showed with gold last month, gold stocks will similarly propel higher when the general public crowds in, regardless of what the markets are doing. Here’s what gold stocks did in the last great bull market, compared to the S&P. 

As measured by the Barron’s Gold Mining Index (a good substitute for the HUI that didn’t exist), gold stocks rose 652% during the 1970s (through January 1980), while the S&P returned a wimpy 22%. The action in the ‘70s was definitely in gold and gold stocks, despite two recessions that decade, and we think a repeat is in the cards.


When the masses finally wake up, it’s highly probable our returns will match the chart above or the late ‘90s surge in Internet stocks.


Is Now a Good Time to Buy?


As investors, our goal is to get positioned in the best stocks at the best price. And buying low assures us of more profit when we eventually sell. So, are gold stocks “low” right now?


We have a couple clues to help answer that, with gold itself offering the most important hint. Let’s compare how gold stocks are performing in relation to gold to see if they’re overvalued or undervalued or somewhere in between.

The chart shows that gold stocks, as measured by the HUI Gold Bugs Index, outperformed gold until 2008. Since then, gold stocks have underperformed gold by a fairly wide margin.


This gold-stock-to-gold ratio tells us that in our bull market, gold stocks are currently undervalued relative to the gold price. This doesn’t mean they can’t get cheaper, of course, but it does signal they represent good value and that compared to their underlying asset, there’s lots of room to the upside.


So, if you have a long-term perspective and the patience to wait until gold stocks begin outperforming gold again, today’s prices are good prices.


So, do we buy? The answer depends on your current exposure to gold stocks, how much gold and cash you have, and your outlook. If you own equities exceeding one-third of your total investable assets, we wouldn’t rush to buy. If you have limited (or no) exposure and a patient mindset to see you through until the big payday, even enduring temporarily lower prices along the way, then buying some now is probably a good move. If you have very little in the way of savings and gold, we’d put money there first before committing a big chunk to gold stocks.


Basically, the larger your stable of gold stocks, the more stubborn you should be about price. And we wouldn’t go “all in” just yet. Your risk in loading up now is if markets were to take another nosedive. But if you’re light on stocks, adding some of the best of the best at this time should work out well, as long as you don’t panic into selling on general market weakness.


Just Tell Me When!


The #1 indicator that will tell us when gold stocks will take off has nothing to do with charts and is something you can monitor yourself: it will be when your neighbors and co-workers begin to express curiosity. You obviously want to be invested before them, but that’s when things will start to get exciting.


So when might “gold fever” strike your neighbor? History holds the best clue:


►In the 1970’s bull market, gold stocks began their big ascent when the gold price hit about $450/ounce. Adjusted for inflation, that would equal roughly $1,340 today. So, when we see gold rise decisively above $1,300 and stay there, that just might be the trigger that spurs the interest of the masses in gold stocks. That’s not a prediction, but it does give us an idea of what to look for.


Casey Research chief economist Bud Conrad was right when he called for gold breaking through the $1,150 barrier in 2009 – and now he’s calling for gold to break over $1,450 by year’s end. Weighing in as well, Doug Casey himself sees precious metals as the only asset class worth buying now, and gold stocks as being the best way to add speculative leverage to those investments.


Exciting? You bet. We’re convinced that, sooner or later, higher prices are ahead for the best gold- and silver-producing companies, along with the “magical” levels that can happen in a mania. So, while we encourage caution, we also encourage selective participation so you don’t get left behind. Waiting for the “perfect” time to buy is an exercise in self-deception; nobody can time the market.


Let’s be honest: no one can guarantee when or if a gold mania will happen. But all of our research points to higher prices for gold (and silver), so we remain confident we’re in the right sector. And we can make money before the mania gets here. 


To learn where to buy physical gold and where to store it… and which major gold stocks, mutual funds, and ETFs are the safest while giving you handsome upside… read Casey’s Gold & Resource Report. At $39 per year, it’s a steal for the value you get out of it. Click here for more.

Jeff Clark Agrees: It's Time to Buy the Buck

Last Sunday I wrote that I thought it was time to go long the US dollar. Investor sentiment is near record low levels, which usually means the price has nowhere to go but up, at least in the short term.

When making a contrarian pick like this, you usually prefer to see articles that take the opposite view, rather than the same one - otherwise you start questioning your original hypothesis!

But when I saw that expert trader Jeff Clark agrees that the buck is a buy, I was pleased...in fact, I would have had to reexamine my position had he taken the opposite side! Jeff writes:

But as we've seen so many times before, when everybody lines up on one side of a trade, the odds favor it going the other way. Consider what happened in July 2008. The dollar index was pounding out new lows, and the Daily Sentiment Index dropped to just 5% bulls. It seemed everyone was bearish on the buck, and they were betting heavily on its demise. Four months later, the dollar index had rallied over 20%.

We're seeing something similar today. Everyone is convinced the dollar is a doomed currency. And they're probably right over the long term. There are a lot of stops on the way to the graveyard, however. And like the monster, Jason, in all those Friday the 13th movies... just when you think he's dead for good, there's another sequel in the making.

You can read the rest of Jeff's analysis here - and if you're interested in checking out his premium trading services (they are expensive but excellent), you can learn more here.

How can you trade this? UUP is the ETF you're looking for. Or, you can of course use futures or options as well.

The dollar may be finding a bottom.

(Source: Barchart.com)

Can The Last Dollar Bull Please Turn Out The Lights?

Over the past week, we've been investigating dollar sentiment, which appears to be overwhelmingly bearish at the moment.

I was surprised when our dollar sentiment survey revealed that only 56% of readers were bearish on the dollar. After seeing bearish readings north of 90% in some places, and anecdotal evidence to support these #'s, I was a bit surprised that our results weren't as extreme.

Though astute reader MarketAddict pointed out that perhaps our readers are a bit more contrarian in nature, and thus the balanced opinion in our house poll.

Today in Growth Stock Wire, expert trader Jeff Clark sounded a Bubble Alert in everything except the dollar.

The problem now is everybody – and I mean EVERYBODY – is bearish on the dollar. It's a doomed currency, and everyone is expecting its eventual demise. Of course, that was the case last December as well, just before the dollar kicked off a three-month rally that boosted the greenback 12% and sent stocks and commodities reeling.

From a contrarian point of view, a bottom in the dollar is near. Too many people are betting on its demise. And while they may eventually be proven correct, the market is likely to make them suffer in the short term.

We're probably no more than a few days away from an important short-term bottom in the dollar, which means we're probably close to a short-term top in the stock and commodities markets. Given the extent of the selloff in the dollar and the rally in all the other markets, a counter-trend move could be substantial.

I agree wholeheartedly with Jeff, and believe that we could be in for a powerful, sustained dollar rally coming up. So if you're glancing longingly at gold, oil, stocks, and other "dollar hedges" - this is probably a wise time to check our emotions and channel your inner contrarian.

Ed. note: I'll make a quick plug for Jeff's premium trading service, The Short Report. It's excellent - I've been a subscriber for several months now - worth checking out if you're a serious short term trader.

It's not hard to be bearish on the dollar when you see this chart.

(Source: Barchart.com)

What's the Best Month to Buy Gold

Well, we sold our gold stocks after May this year, on cue with the old addage "sell in May and go away." We were alarmed that the gold market appeared to be looking a bit toppy, at least in the short term, so we took profits and went to the sidelines.

And now we're "safely" back in cash. BUT - when do we buy back into the market? That's the conundrum involved with selling an asset that's in a bull market...you sell and wait for the pullback, often to find that you lost your position, and are resigned to watch helplessly as the market takes off without you!

Fortunately for us, guest author Jeff Clark is going to dive into this topic today, as he looks at the best months for buying into gold and gold stocks.

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When is the Best Time to Buy Gold?
By Jeff Clark, Editor, BIG GOLD

I bet you don’t own enough gold.

Before you tell me I’m wrong, let me ask it this way...

• If inflation returns, or even hyperinflation...
• If the economic crisis persists and gets worse...
• If uncertainty and fear continue, and chaos and rioting begin...
• If stock markets languish or suffer another meltdown...
• If the recovery spending of the world’s governments proves futile...
• If government interference in the economy continues to increase...
• If the value of the U.S. dollar takes a major fall...
• If world recovery from the current recession/depression takes years...
• If you’re still wondering whether you have enough “safe” money...

...would you feel you own enough gold?

If all those things come to pass, I suspect many of us, including myself, would wish we had a few extra gold coins or bars stashed away.

So let’s assume you answered “No” to my question and need to add some ounces to your collection... is now a good time to buy?

The Best Time to Buy Gold?

Before glancing at the chart below, if you had to pick the month with the weakest average gold price, which would you select?

In our current 8-year bull market, June has seen the lowest return for gold. In other words, it’s been, on average, one of the best times to buy.

How does this compare to the bull market of the 1970s?

In the last great bull market, summer also was a good time to buy gold (although April was even better.)

What about gold stocks?

Since 2001, July and October have been the weakest months for gold stocks, as measured by the AMEX Gold Bugs Index, and the best times to buy.

However, keep in mind that these are price tendencies and not certainties. There were Junes when gold was up, and some Julys when gold stocks were up. Meaning, avoid using this chart for trading purposes or in anticipation of an immediate gain. Instead, use it to prepare for possible gold price weakness ahead. And if the weakness shows up, treat it as a buying opportunity and add to your holdings to position yourself for the next leg up in the bull market. Consider that this summer could be the last chance to buy gold for three figures.

Don’t lose sight of where we are at this point in the recession – in an intermission in the bad economic news. When it becomes apparent that the good ole days aren’t coming back, sentiment – and markets – could move rapidly. And gold is one of the best forms of capital that can protect you in a financial Armageddon. That gold was up in 2008 is a reminder of its protective power.

How much gold should you have? Continue to accumulate physical gold until you can honestly say you don’t care how many dollars Ben Bernanke prints.

Having physical gold in your possession is always a good idea in times of economic turmoil – there is no “uncertainty hedge” like it. But to actually make money, you should also look at premium gold stocks. Our current favorite has been so consistently successful that we call it “48 Karat Gold.” Click here to learn more.

Ed. note - I'm a Casey Research subscriber and can vouch for the quality of their research and analysis.

How to Time the Gold Market

I've learned - the hard way - that the best way to time the gold market - is not to time it at all.  Remember last summer after the government bailed out Fannie/Freddie, and it looked like a sure bet that gold was heading to the moon?  

Well that didn't pan out - yet.  But if you believe, as we do, that printing money will eventually lead to inflation (as it always has every other time it's happened in history), then you may want to position yourself ahead of the herd into some gold positions, if you haven't already.  So if you don't yet have a full position size, is now the best time to load up?  Read on to see what Casey's Jeff Clark has to say.

Gold Stocks – the Best Strategy for Portfolio Building
by Jeff Clark, Editor of BIG GOLD

October 27, 2008 was the gold mining sector’s Black Monday, the day nearly every stock hit rock bottom. Hindsight makes it plain they got caught in the violent deleveraging that sucked down every equities market in the world.

The broader markets were of course making year-to-date lows at the same time, and unlike gold stocks, they continued falling after a short intermission. In fact, the Dow fell 2,000 points after Obama was elected. In sharp contrast, the mining stocks went on a tear. Between November ’08 and January ’09, many of our BIG GOLD picks made substantial gains, rising anywhere from 45% to 149%.

This good news isn’t the whole story, of course; many mining stocks saw percentage losses greater than the broader market averages during the Big Selloff. But given the fact that gold stocks started rebounding while the broader markets continued lower, the BIG GOLD portfolio ended the year down 24% while the S&P lost 38%. We were also glad to see our portfolio responded better than the HUI; the broad-based mining index lost 32% on the year. Meanwhile, the demand for physical gold and silver was surging, likely attributed to investors who’d been spooked by the broad meltdown.

We held on to our shares throughout the selloff and advised our readers to do the same – and subsequently watched our stocks rebound mightily. And we fully expect these kinds of surges to repeat as gold pushes higher. Keep in mind that the real mania is yet to come. Once inflation responds to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing monetary foolishness, gold will need a space suit and our miners oxygen masks.

A key point to remember going forward is that gold mining shares constitute a minute fraction of the global equities market, and a small shift in investor interest toward our sector can move gold stocks sharply higher in a big hurry. The market cap of the fifteen largest gold producers in the world -- combined -- is a paltry $125 billion. That’s barely more than a single company such as General Electric, at $116B; much less than Microsoft ($175B); and waaay less than Exxon Mobil at $400B.

Miners have also had a temporary respite from high energy costs due to the collapse in the price of crude oil. Energy is one of the biggest expenses a miner has to carry. As energy prices came down, the cost of producing gold also declined, fattening the bottom line. Oil is likely to get back to and then beyond $143 per barrel at some point, but not for a while. We doubt it will top $75 this year, which is enormously helpful for our companies.

Recently, gold stocks have outperformed bullion, a trend we’re keeping an eye on and one we’re confident will continue in the future, especially when we see the certain emergence of serious inflation and the dollar resumes its downtrend.

So… what to do now?

What we hope you’ve been doing all along. Our general rules: If you’re already fully committed to this sector, stay the course; you will be well rewarded.

For those with money still to invest, accumulate well-run, sound companies on weakness. Volatility will continue; we expect days and weeks marked by retracement in the prices of even the best companies. The dips will be your buying opportunities. Place below-market bids and let the price come to you. Take positions with half or so of the funds you’ve allotted for this sector, then fill out your portfolio with whatever bargains come your way.

Whether you’re already full-up with gold stocks or are just getting started, you should be well positioned before the all-out mania for gold stocks hits.


The Quandary of Timing

It may surprise some to hear that we are not “all-in” yet with our portfolio. Why? Because our attitude is one of caution, and because we know that our big gains since October could get clawed back, partly or wholly, by another reversal – which would lead to another buying opportunity we wouldn’t want to miss.

But caution can be expensive when the market runs away from you. What if the train has already left the station? In that case, those waiting on a pullback will be disappointed. Just as all below-market bids placed on October 28 of last year went unfilled, so could today’s, or tomorrow’s.

Looking as little as a year out, our money is confidently on our stocks going higher – much higher. We expect the government’s assorted “stimulus” packages to fail to deliver as advertised, and usher in high inflation. This will push gold and gold stocks much higher.

But the question is, if the broader markets head lower, will gold stocks follow them down or ride on gold’s coattails?

That question leaves you in a quandary only if you’re looking at the short term. Or if you get emotional about this stuff. Those with no stomach left after the gut-wrenching selloff into last October probably shouldn’t deviate from the cautious strategy outlined above. If you’re one of those who see the big picture and ignore the gyrations along the way – which is what Doug Casey does – then you’re drawn to the idea of placing a bet when you judge that the odds are in your favor. It’s when you see the price of something is far less than its value that you can have the confidence to load up, whether that’s today or perhaps later this summer.

Whether you buy today or wait in hopes of a pullback, we believe you’ll be looking at profits a year from now. In the big picture, our stocks are still deeply undervalued, even after so many of them have doubled off their lows. But could they retreat again? In a general market pullback, definitely. Could they tread water for a while? Certainly. And could they leave present levels in the dust and double again from here? Absolutely.

There are times when one must put away the crystal ball and simply prepare for more than one scenario. This is one of them. Whether you respond more conservatively or more aggressively, keep your eye on the endgame. We think you’ll be glad you did.

Prudent precious metals strategies for conservative investors – that’s what BIG GOLD is all about. And now that the gold price is going up again, you shouldn’t wait to jump on the bandwagon. Read in our latest report why super-low interest rates mean we could see $1,500/oz gold this year – click here to learn more.

Why Gold Is Going Much Higher Than $2,000

According to Wikipedia, the Tilt is a state of mental confusion in which a poker player adopts a less than optimal strategy, usually resulting in the player becoming over-agreesive.  In this guest piece, Jeff Clark, one of our favorite analysts, explores how global economics are now "on Tilt", driven, with wreckless decision after wreckless decision being handed down by our fearless government bureaucrats.  

What does this mean for gold?  Read on and find out!

***

Global Economics on Tilt – How to Protect Your Ass(ets)
By Jeff Clark, Editor, BIG GOLD


Gold isn’t going to $2,000 an ounce.

Before you gag on your coffee or suffer chest pains, allow me to explain.

We’re about eight years into the bull market, and gold has breached the $1,000 level twice and has spent weeks trading above the old high of $850. Some observers are now saying that gold’s pretty much had its day and that once the recession is over, it will retreat for good.

However, the four-digit gold price we’ve seen so far is with no price inflation to speak of, no effects of the atrocious increase in the money supply, and despite a rising dollar. What happens to gold when each of those pictures gets turned upside down – high inflation, excess cash jolting the economy, and a falling dollar? After all, gold’s performance to date has been powered only by general anxiety, not by any visible erosion in the dollar’s value.

I decided to take a fresh look at calculations that could be used to appraise gold’s upside potential. No one of them, by itself, comes with compelling logic. But they all point in the same direction.

Gold’s Percentage Rise in the Last Bull Market. What if gold in this bull market repeats the percentage rise in the last bull market? In the 1970s gold rose from $35 to $850, a factor of 24.28. Our low in 2001 was $255.95. Multiply that by 24.28 and you get a gold price of $6,214 per ounce.

U.S. Gold Holdings to Money Supply: The M1 money supply consists of currency and checkable deposits. The U.S. government currently holds 286.9 million ounces of gold. If the government were to make each dollar redeemable by the amount of gold it possesses, we’d arrive at the following price for gold: $1.569 trillion ÷ 286.9 million oz. = $5,468.80 per ounce

Gold/Dow Ratio: The ratio was about “1” when gold peaked in 1980, meaning the Dow and gold were the same price. To restore that relationship at today’s stock prices would mean when the Dow is at 6,626, gold should be at $6,626/oz. Of course, we think it likely that the Dow will get a lot lower before gold peaks. But even if it drops all the way to 4,000, that would imply a gold price of $4,000/oz.

All the Money in the World vs. Gold Reserves: If the public eventually sees the paper game being run by the central banks for what it is, governments will be forced to back their currencies with gold (and perhaps other tangibles like silver). Assuming they had to go into the market and buy the gold needed to restore faith in their currencies, the numbers might look like this: Total central banks reserves (including gold holdings) = $4.8 trillion, divided by 929.6 million ounces total gold reserves held by all official institutions that issue currency = $5,246 gold price.

U.S. Gold Holdings to U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit: The size of a country's deficit or surplus would be of no consequence if all currencies were convertible into a fixed amount of gold. However, the dollar is increasingly considered a hot potato, and when the trade balance reverses, as it must, dollars will flow back to the U.S. and fuel domestic price inflation. Based on the cumulative trade deficit of $9.13 trillion (up from $6 trillion since June ‘07!) and U.S. gold holdings of 286.9 million ounces, the corresponding price of gold would be $31,822 per ounce.

U.S. Gold to U.S. Government Liabilities: Finally, the GAO (Government Accountability Office) calculates an income statement and balance sheet for the U.S. government. As you’d suspect, it is dominated by future liabilities for Medicare and Social Security. What if they had to be backed by the supply of gold? Official U.S. government liabilities now ring in at an incredible $55.2 trillion. To make good on that would require a $192,401 gold price.

No, we don’t think gold will hit $192,000 or even $32,000. And there really isn’t any surefire way to forecast the eventual high. But it’s clear that every weathervane is pointing in the same direction. So, yes, gold isn’t going to $2,000; it’s going higher.

Witness the Breakdown

When determining how to keep your wealth safe, the state of global affairs can be a powerful reminder that gold should be part of the strategy. And today our world, essentially, is on fire.

• Eastern Europe borders on bankruptcy. Brazil's economy is falling off a cliff. Ditto Mexico.

• Protests have erupted in Latvia, Chile, Greece, Bulgaria, Iceland, Dublin, and parts of the U.S. Workers have gone on strike in Britain and France. 

• In the U.S., 36 states and the District of Columbia have proposed or implemented reductions in the civil workforce. (You think customer service is poor now...) 

• An astounding one in nine homes, 14 million, sits empty in the U.S. The December median price of a home sold in Detroit was $7,500. More than 8.3 million homeowners were upside down on their mortgage in the fourth quarter. Freddie Mac's new CEO resigned after six months on the job. 

• Last quarter, 12 U.S. banks failed, bringing the 2008 total to 25, the highest one-year death rate since 50 failed in 1993. More foreboding, another 252 banks joined the FDIC’s “problem list.” So far this year, 19 banks have failed. 

• The central bank of Ukraine banned the early redemption of term deposits, the most popular form of savings in the country. Bank deposits have dropped 20% since September, as bank customers dodge the risk of getting locked in.

• The projected US$1.75 trillion federal budget deficit is almost four times the nation’s previous record-high budget deficit. The Times Square debt clock reads over $11 trillion. Japan’s now reads $7.8 trillion. 

• High unemployment has become a worldwide epidemic, with the infection spreading. 

• With world economies taking it on the chin, it’s little wonder that investor interest in gold as a safe haven is growing – a trend we expect to continue. And just wait until the dollar resumes its slide, the expanding money supply jolts the real economy, and inflation kicks in. 
  

Both Hands on the Wheel

Given the ongoing turmoil and the swallowing darkness at the end of the crumbling economic tunnel, our recommended BIG GOLD strategy remains keeping one-third in cash, one-third in physical gold, and one-third in our selected gold stocks. New money for investment should be split among the same three categories; we just don’t see any safer places to be.

As economies around the world continue to shrink and governments continue administering larger doses of the wrong medicine, we’ll sit in relative comfort with our gold for protection and our stocks for profit. We expect the prices of both to rise as others join us.

***

Even though some of the mainstream media are already popping the champagne, cheerfully pronouncing the end of the crisis, we beg to differ. The economic quagmire the U.S. and much of the developed world is in is far from over… so be right and sit tight, as we at Casey Research like to say. And find out how you can make the most out of gold as a safe-haven investment, by clicking here.



More recent articles by Jeff Clark:

• Natural gas is Ready to Rally
• Why eBay is the Best Indicator of Gold's Fair Value

Is Natural Gas As Low As It Can Go?

May Natural Gas futures currently sit a shade above $3.50 - their lowest point since 2002!  Check out this chart...can you spot the trend?

Source: BarChart.com

Jeff Clark writes that $3.50 is widely regarded as the "shut in" price for natural gas - the price where drillers are better off closing the well than continuing to operate it.

When the price of a commodity drops below the cost of production, that is music to our ears.  After all, the best cure for low prices is low prices.  Keep an eye on the natty, because something has to give, sooner or later.

Looking for an easy way to invest in natural gas?  Check out UNG, a fund that tracks the price of the natty - it's a simple way to speculate on natural gas prices from the comfort of your stock trading account.

Coal Stocks Ready to Launch (Again)?

Jeff Clark writes for Growth Stock Wire about his favorite energy trading indicators, and thinks that coal will be the next big trade in energy.

The (coal) index itself is consolidating, and it'll take a move above 200 to spark a bullish uptrend. Several of the individual stocks that make up the index broke out to the upside last week. So the odds are high the index will break out as well.

We're still bullish on oil stocks, and on just about everything else in the energy sector. The run in the coal stocks, though, is just getting started. From a risk/reward perspective, coal stocks are the next place to be.

Oil/Gold Ratio at 10-Year Extreme

Oil has not been this cheap relative to gold in 10 years, expert trader Jeff Clark writes in today's Growth Stock Wire. He believes it's time to go long oil.

The last time the ratio was this high, back in 1999, oil quadrupled from $10 per barrel to over $40 in just one year. A similar move this time will generate big gains for anyone willing to buck the trend and buy oil today.

So if you missed the shot at buying gold near $800 per ounce last week, then don't miss your shot at oil right now.