Commodity Futures Weekly Review - January 11, 2009

Now for the weekly review of our commodity futures positions - current as of January 11, 2009.

First, our top blog posts from the past week:

• Is It (Finally) Time to Short US Treasuries - And Make a Fortune?
• China Starting to Regurgitate US Debt
• Marc Faber on Bloomberg: World War III Has Already Begun
  

Also our coverage of Jim Rogers' and Marc Faber's Commodity Picks for 2009 was the 2nd most popular article on Seeking Alpha for much of the week.

A review of our trades and positions from the previous week:

• Sold our mini-gold futures contract - to make way for another grains contract. This was a position sizing move - gold had not yet hit our sell stop.

• Also sold our one cocoa futures contract - also for position sizing purposes. Cocoa was not performing as well as wheat, so we decided to add to our wheat position.
  

• Bought one more wheat futures contract - wheat put in a strong performance this week, up $0.20.

• Continued to hold one corn futures contract. This was an attempt to "pyramid" our grains position and diversify. Corn was up $0.02 on the week.

• Continued to hold one cotton futures contract - we LOVE cotton at these prices - as we've discussed with before in this space. Cotton was up slightly on the week.

• And finally, the dunce cap so far goes on our decision to eat our own dog food and short the 10-Year Treasury Note. We haven't lost hope yet, but will have to exit this position if new highs are hit. It won't be the first time we've gotten burned on this trade.
  

Commodities that appear quite beaten down - but we don't own them...yet...

• Sugar
• Coffee
• Natural Gas
• Silver
• Crude Oil

Open positions

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
12/29/08	Long	1	MAR 09	Corn	422 1/4	412	($512.50)
12/31/08	Long	1	MAR 09	Cotton	48.52	49.33	$405.00
01/06/09	Short	1	MAR 09	T-Note (10yr)	123-285	125-220	($1,796.88)
12/24/08	Long	1	MAR 09	Wheat	579 1/4	630	$2,537.50
01/06/09	Long	1	MAR 09	Wheat	627 3/4	630	$112.50
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions							$745.63

Account Balances

Current Cash Balance	$47,783.90
Open Trade Equity	$745.63
Total Equity	$48,529.53
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$48,529.53

---------------------------------------------
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $68,529.53
Weekly return: -2.1%
2009 YTD return: -4.5%

2008 return: -8%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes - lately we've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance our time management software company that was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal and Inc magazine.

Commodity Futures Review - January 4, 2009

Now for the weekly review of our commodity futures positions - current as of January 4, 2009.

First, our top blog posts from the past week:

• Expert Commodity Picks for 2009: Jim Rogers and Marc Faber
• GoldMoney Review: Gold Climbs for 8th Straight Year
• Jim Rogers on Kudlow: We're going to have an inflationary nightmare

Our coverage of Marc Faber's recent interview on CNBC from December 1st continues to see a lot of traffic.

A review of our trades and positions from the previous week:

• Continued to hold one cocoa futures contract - down on the week, mostly due to a sharp Friday drop.

• Continued to hold one mini-gold futures contract. Gold was stuck in the mud for the week - though it did wrap up an 8th consecutive up year vs. the US dollar.

• Continued to hold one wheat futures contract - up a bit for the week. Looking to add on further strength.

• Bought one corn futures contract. This was an attempt to "pyramid" our grains position and diversify - in hindsight, looking at the charts of each, wheat looks stronger, and we should have added to that position before initiating this one.

• Bought one cotton futures contract - we LOVE cotton at these prices - as we've discussed with before in this space.

Commodities that appear quite beaten down - but we don't own them...yet...

• Sugar
• Coffee
• Natural Gas
• Silver
• Crude Oil

Open positions

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
12/29/08	Long	1	MAR 09	Corn	422 1/4	410	($612.50)
12/15/08	Long	1	MAR 09	Cocoa	2586	2506	($800.00)
12/31/08	Long	1	MAR 09	Cotton	48.52	48.90	$190.00
12/24/08	Long	1	MAR 09	Wheat	579 1/4	610	$1,537.50
12/15/08	Long	1	FEB 09	Mini Gold	836.6	877.3	$1,351.24
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions							$1,666.24

Account Balances

Current Cash Balance	$47,887.81
Open Trade Equity	$1,666.24
Total Equity	$49,554.05
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$49,554.05

---------------------------------------------
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $69,554.05
Weekly return: -2.5% *** since 1/1/09
YTD return: -2.5%

2008 return: -8%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately we've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a cool new time management software startup that is starting to lift off - and was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal.

Weekly Futures Positions Review - December 28, 2008

Top posts from the past week:

• Lean Hog Prices Poised to Climb in 2009
  
• Why eBay is the Best Indicator of Gold's Fair Value
  

Our coverage of Marc Faber's recent interview on CNBC from December 1st continues to see a lot of traffic.

A review of our trades and positions from the previous week:

• Continued to hold one cocoa futures contract - up slightly on the week. Looking to add to this position on higher high's.
  

• Continued to hold one mini-gold futures contract - a nice bounce on Friday for Gold also made this position a solid performer on the week. Looking to pyramid if/when gold makes a serious run at $1,000.
  

• Purchased one wheat futures contract. All of the grains look like they are now breaking out - the corn and soybean charts look very similar. I think the grains are seriously oversold, and the bullish fundamentals are quite intriguing at these price points. I prefer wheat and corn over soybeans personally from a fundamental perspective.

Our wish list...everything here looks beaten down...some starting to form a bottom it appears...

• Sugar
• Coffee
• Cotton
  
• Natural Gas
• Silver
• Crude Oil
• Corn

Open positions

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
12/15/08	Long	1	MAR 09	Cocoa	2586	2616	$300.00
12/24/08	Long	1	MAR 09	Wheat	579 1/4	599	$987.50
12/15/08	Long	1	FEB 09	Mini Gold	836.6	870.6	$1,128.80
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions							$2,416.30

Account Balances

Current Cash Balance	$47,916.42
Open Trade Equity	$2,416.30
Total Equity	$50,332.72
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$50,332.72

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $70,332.72
Weekly return: 4.9%
YTD return: -8.6%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately we've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a cool new time management software startup that is starting to lift off - and was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal.

Weekly Futures Positions Review - December 14, 2008

Top posts from the past week:

• Marc Faber: The 2009 Global Economy Will Be A "Total Disaster"
  
• US Bailout Price Tag Heading for $10+ Trillion(!)
  
• Yearly Oil Demand Drops for 1st Time in 25 Years
  
• Consumer Credit Crisis: The Next Shoe to Drop
  

A review of my futures trades from the previous week:

• Covered my British Pound short. British Pound futures have been trading sideways over the last few weeks. And it looks like the US dollar rally is starting to run out of steam.
  

Existing positions I've got:

• None!

My wish list...and it looks like these commodities are at least starting to form a bottom, at last:

• Sugar
• Coffee
• Cotton
  
• Natural Gas
• Silver
• Crude Oil
• Wheat
• Corn
  

Account Balances

Current Cash Balance	$49,196.88
Open Trade Equity	$0.00
Total Equity	$49,196.88
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$49,196.88

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $69,196.88
Weekly return: -2.7%
YTD return: -10.2%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a cool new time management software startup that is starting to lift off.

Marc Faber: The 2009 Global Economy Will Be A "Total Disaster"

Marc Faber's observations on a CNBC interview from December 1, 2008:

• We're experiencing the largest asset deflation since World War II

• Since 2001, every asset class in the world went up - except the US dollar. Fast forward to 2008, and every asset class has collapsed - except the US dollar.

• The global economy will continue to deteriorate badly next year. It will be a "total disaster".
  

• He sees a short-term rally in US stocks, due to the current oversold conditions.

• The "Warren Buffett" approach of buying and holding stocks has been dead for 10 years, and it will be dead for another 10 years.

• He expects volatility to stay sky high. It will be a "trader's market".

• Equities will not make new highs in real terms for years to come.

• Commodities have corrected within a bull market. He believes there are opportunities to be found there.

• The Chinese economy is a "disaster." It's going to get worse.
  

Marc Faber's current investment recommendations:

• Commodities...when the global economy recovers (and he expects this to take 5-10 years!)

• Within the next 12 months - short US long term government bonds
  

Part I: Marc Faber on CNBC - Dec 1, 2008:




Part II - Marc Faber on CNBC - Dec 1, 2008:



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