Sunday, January 04, 2009

Commodity Futures Review - January 4, 2009



Now for the weekly review of our commodity futures positions - current as of January 4, 2009.

First, our top blog posts from the past week:

Our coverage of Marc Faber's recent interview on CNBC from December 1st continues to see a lot of traffic.

A review of our trades and positions from the previous week:
  • Continued to hold one cocoa futures contract - down on the week, mostly due to a sharp Friday drop.

  • Continued to hold one mini-gold futures contract. Gold was stuck in the mud for the week - though it did wrap up an 8th consecutive up year vs. the US dollar.

  • Continued to hold one wheat futures contract - up a bit for the week. Looking to add on further strength.

  • Bought one corn futures contract. This was an attempt to "pyramid" our grains position and diversify - in hindsight, looking at the charts of each, wheat looks stronger, and we should have added to that position before initiating this one.



Commodities that appear quite beaten down - but we don't own them...yet...
  • Sugar
  • Coffee
  • Natural Gas
  • Silver
  • Crude Oil

Open positions

Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss
12/29/08 Long 1 MAR 09 Corn 422 1/4 410 ($612.50)
12/15/08 Long 1 MAR 09 Cocoa 2586 2506 ($800.00)
12/31/08 Long 1 MAR 09 Cotton 48.52 48.90 $190.00
12/24/08 Long 1 MAR 09 Wheat 579 1/4 610 $1,537.50
12/15/08 Long 1 FEB 09 Mini Gold 836.6 877.3 $1,351.24
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions $1,666.24

Account Balances

Current Cash Balance $47,887.81
Open Trade Equity $1,666.24
Total Equity $49,554.05
Long Option Value $0.00
Short Option Value $0.00
Net Liquidating Value $49,554.05

---------------------------------------------
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $69,554.05
Weekly return: -2.5% *** since 1/1/09
YTD return: -2.5%

2008 return: -8%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately we've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a cool new time management software startup that is starting to lift off - and was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal.

2 comments:

Moyo said...

Excellent picks, especially on the wheat and cotton. I have reservations on corn, because it is lagging.

Soybeans seems to be gaining some strength...

btw congrats on your day's gain :-)

thoughts on sugar...it made a new 2 month high?

Brett Owens said...

Thanks Moyo - and a fair point on corn, I concur.

You know sugar's my original love :) But, as they say, you can't kiss all the girls, so I'm content to wait for now. Grains and cotton looking stronger I think.

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