Showing posts with label british pound. Show all posts
Showing posts with label british pound. Show all posts

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Gordon Brown Tosses Final Nail in Coffin of UK Economy

Gordon Brown appears to now have fulfilled his destiny as one of the worst leaders in the UK's illustrious history, as he tossed the final nail in the coffin of a wheezing economy, courtesy of a budget that would make one of Ayn Rand's villains blush.

Brown, like most politicians, appears to have read few if any history books, as he plans to tax top wage earners at 50%.  Those who believe that budgets can be balanced by soaking the rich are naive - capital, like water, flows downhill, according to the path of least resistance.  The exodus of capital from the UK will only accelerate as a result of these socialist taxation rates, and the UK will continue it's slide into oblivion.

Don't laugh too hard, fellow Americans, we're not far behind.

To top it off, the UK's budget plan is based on projections that have no chance in hell of coming true - calling for economic growth of 1.25% in 2010 and 3.5% in 2011.  I'll parlay the under on those two picks, thank you very much.

One guy entitled to say "told ya so" is Daniel Hannan, the Brit who layed the smack down on Brown in Parliament a few months back.  Classic clip.

Other lowlights of Brown's career, now that we're piling on?  How about his massive sale of 60% of Britain's gold between 1999 and 2002, essentially calling the absolute 20-year bottom for gold!  Earning him the hilarious nickname from the Casey Research folks "Goldfinger Brown."

Brown's party is almost a shoe-in to get voted out of office next year.  In the meantime, we'll leave with this parting shot - the collapse of the British Pound under his watch.  Gordon, we hardly knew ye.  Please remember to write us often.




Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Jim Rogers: "I Would Not Put Any Money in the U.K."

Jim Rogers tells Bloomberg News that he would avoid investing in the U.K., and that he's sold all of his Pound Sterling.

He also mentions he's been buying Chinese shares and commodities (agriculture, metals, and energy) since the October/November "selling climax."


Saturday, December 13, 2008

Weekly Futures Positions Review - December 14, 2008

Top posts from the past week:

A review of my futures trades from the previous week:
Existing positions I've got:
  • None!

My wish list...and it looks like these commodities are at least starting to form a bottom, at last:
  • Sugar
  • Coffee
  • Cotton
  • Natural Gas
  • Silver
  • Crude Oil
  • Wheat
  • Corn

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance $49,196.88
Open Trade Equity $0.00
Total Equity $49,196.88
Long Option Value $0.00
Short Option Value $0.00
Net Liquidating Value $49,196.88

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $69,196.88
Weekly return: -2.7%
YTD return: -10.2%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a cool new time management software startup that is starting to lift off.

Friday, August 29, 2008

My Current Commodity Futures Positions - 8/31/08

A contemplation on my trades from the week that was:
  • Shorted the British Pound (again) - Roll over, Sterling! The trend is my friend, the trend is my friend, the trend...bad economic data keeps on coming from the UK. This move was long overdue.
Other existing positions I've got:

My wish list (waiting for an uptrend):

Open Positions
Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss
08/29/08 Short 1 SEP 08 British Pound 1.8190 1.8213 ($143.75)
08/12/08 Short 1 SEP 08 British Pound 1.9042 1.8213 $5,181.25
08/26/08 Long 1 DEC 08 Coffee 'C' 146.55 146.60 $18.75
08/21/08 Long 1 DEC 08 Mini Silver 1390.1 1369.0 ($211.00)
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: $4,845.25

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance $52,962.94
Open Trade Equity $4,845.25
Total Equity $57,808.19
Long Option Value $0.00
Short Option Value $0.00
Net Liquidating Value $57,808.19

Cashed out: $18,000.00
Total value: $74,518.00

Weekly return: 2.3%
YTD return: -1.0%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it to pay down my credit cards a bit. Why credit card debt? I'm financing a startup and trying to outpace my CC interest rate in the futures markets - kids, don't try this at home.

Roll Over, British Pound! Going Short Two Contracts

A jolly good day to you, dear reader chap. This morning, over tea and biscuits, I posed the following query to myself:

Q: What's better than one short British Pound contract?

A: Well that's easy, my good man - the answer is TWO short British Pound contracts.

Check out this chart - is this dog waking up anytime soon?


Look, George Soros made $1 Billion shorting the British Pound in his most famous trade - I've got some catching up to do!

Further reading:
  • FX Street: How Much Lower Can the Sterling Slide?
    • "The news for sterling has gone from bad to worse," said Ian Stannard, a currencies strategist at BNP Paribas in London. He said that the pound could test resistance at $1.8180 area "before a corrective rebound develops," as sterling catches up with the dollar's recent move lower.






Sunday, August 24, 2008

Current Commodity Futures Positions - 8/24/08

A review of trades from the week that was:
  • Covered my Soybean Short - beans rallied, along with the rest of the grains. Closed this out at a loss. And a good thing too - the grains markets continue to rally strong, even into the Asian session this evening. I can't make heads or tails of the grains markets, and I don't think any clarity will be found until the harvest results are in - I'm on the sidelines here for a bit.
  • Also covered by Cocoa Short, also at a loss - took a bath on the big cocoa rally. It gapped up, and I got out.
Looking ahead:

My wish list (waiting for an uptrend):

Open Positions
Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss
08/12/08 Short 1 SEP 08 British Pound 1.9042 1.8391 $4,068.75
08/21/08 Long 1 DEC 08 Mini Silver 1390.1 1337.0 ($531.00)
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: $3,537.75

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance $52,980.25
Open Trade Equity $3,537.75
Total Equity $56,518.00
Long Option Value $0.00
Short Option Value $0.00
Net Liquidating Value $56,518.00

Cashed out: $18,000.00
Total value: $74,518.00

Weekly return: -4.7%
YTD return: -2.8%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it to pay down my credit cards a bit. Why credit card debt? I'm financing a startup and trying to outpace my CC interest rate in the futures markets :)

Friday, August 15, 2008

Current Commodity Futures Positions - 8/17/08


Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, relief at last - that's me, pissing away the last of my 2008 gains. Glad we got that out of the way.

Tuesday I was feeling really smart, and bought a mini-silver contract at the bargain price of $15. Unfortunately nobody told me that the bargains were going to get even better! I sold silver on Friday for just over $13.

Hey, I got exactly what I deserved. Look at this chart of gold and silver, courtesy of Agora Financial:


What kind of idiot would try to time the bottom of that spike through the basement floor? (Pointing both thumbs at my chest...) "This guyyyyyy."

On Friday, I jumped into a vat of rough rice and holy water, and repented for my trading sins. Last time I fully repented was last November, when I developed a new trading outlook. That outlook served me very well until I decided I smarter than it.

Well, here's to new beginnings. As I repeat the mantra I should never have forgotten "The trend is my friend, the trend is my friend, don't eat yellow snow, the trend is my friend..."

Open Positions
Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss
08/12/08 Short 1 SEP 08 British Pound 1.9042 1.8620 $2,637.50
08/15/08 Short 1 DEC 08 Cocoa 2589 2587 $20.00
08/14/08 Short 1 NOV 08 Mini Soybeans 1260 1221 $390.00
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: $3,047.50


Account Balances
Current Cash Balance $56,272.41
Open Trade Equity $3,047.50
Total Equity $59,319.91
Long Option Value $0.00
Short Option Value $0.00
Net Liquidating Value $59,319.91

Cashed out: $18,000.00
Total value: $77,319.91

Weekly return: -8.0%
YTD return: 1.2%

***BTW, I usually "cash out" money just to pay for taxes, rent, and cheap beer. So total value is all pre-tax.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Current Commodity Futures Positions - 8/10/08

Took some more cash out this week to pay a credit card, and also pump some more cash into our startup.

Well, my hopes/dreams for '08 being a banner year I think are officially in the tank. Earlier in the year, I was hoping I could keep running up the account, and essentially use it as an ATM to fund my life and startup simultaneously.

Alas, it wasn't to be - really it's turning out to be a bummer year for agriculture. What started off so strong has essentially retraced all the way back (pull up the charts for soybeans, corn, cotton, etc - we haven't moved much). Tough to make money long commodities when they are not going up.

From here on in, I'm looking at doing some more trading in pairs, a la Dennis Gartman. My first try at this is my Long Cotton/Short Soybeans trade, and I must tip my cap to Bud Conrad of Casey Research for his astute short soybeans call in a recent publication. I was already long cotton, but would not have thought to short beans had it not been for an outstanding research piece by him.

Last week was a terrible time to be long any currency other than the US dollar, as the dead cat bounce is in full swing. Have to admit even though we've discussed it here that the dollar was due for a bounce, the magnitude and strength of it has really surprised me.

I'm considering adding a short British Pound position to compliment my (underwater) long Swiss Franc position. The UK economy is in trouble, and the BP could be in a race with the US dollar to the cellar - at least that pair would help hedge from further dollar rallies.

Overall a great entry point for the Swiss Franc and many of the Asian currencies here, I think. The dollar has further to drop, no doubt, but it will be a race to the cellar with many of the other currencies. I don't see the Euro, British Pound, or Canadian dollar climbing much more vs. the US dollar.

Also a great entry point for soft commodities - most notably sugar, coffee, and cotton. This trio is still trading at very depressed prices.

Open Positions
Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss
06/17/08 Long 1 DEC 08 Cotton 82.20 69.05 ($6,575.00)
08/05/08 Short 1 MAR 09 Soybeans 1303 3/4 1220 $4,187.50
07/29/08 Long 1 OCT 08 Sugar #11 12.84 13.46 $694.40
07/31/08 Long 1 OCT 08 Sugar #11 13.91 13.46 ($504.00)
07/31/08 Long 1 SEP 08 Swiss Franc 0.954900 0.9219 ($4,125.00)
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: ($6,322.10)

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance $70,774.87
Open Trade Equity ($6,322.10)
Total Equity $64,452.77
Long Option Value $0.00
Short Option Value $0.00
Net Liquidating Value $64,452.77


Cashed out: $18,000.00
Total value: $82,452.77

Weekly return: -9.3%
YTD return: 8.3%

***BTW, I usually "cash out" money just to pay for taxes, rent, and cheap beer. So total value is all pre-tax.

Most Popular Articles This Month