Swiss Quit on Their Own Currency

Today, Switzerland signaled to the world that it will attempt to flush the Swiss Franc down the bowl faster than the other fiat currencies of the world.

Not only did the Swiss National Bank cut it's target rate to 0.25 percent (from 0.5 percent), but the central bank also began selling the currency, marking it's first intervention in the Forex markets since 1992 (source: Bloomberg).

The fact that no country in the history of the world has ever devalued its way to prosperity does not seem to discourage central banks.

It's a sad, sad day when the Swiss - of all people - give up on their own currency.

Weekly Futures Positions Review - December 21, 2008

Top posts from the past week:

• Inflation or Deflation - Which Will Prevail?
• Fed Out of Ammo; Dollar is Toast
• Stratfor: Oil Prices Likely to Remain Low

Our coverage of Marc Faber's recent interview on CNBC from December 1st continues to see a lot of traffic.

A review of our trades from the previous week:

• Bought a Swiss Franc position on Tuesday. Tried to pyramid with another position Wednesday night. Sold both on Friday - about even after it was all said and done. Check out this volatility:

• Bought an Australian Dollar position on Tuesday - sold it on Friday at a loss. Again, we unsuccessfully timed the breakout here.

• Bought a Mini-Gold position. Again, tried to buy the breakout.

• Bought a Cocoa position. Ditto.

Our wish list...everything here looks beaten down...silve

• Sugar
• Coffee
• Cotton
  
• Natural Gas
• Silver
• Crude Oil
• Wheat
• Corn

Open positions

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
12/15/08	Long	1	MAR 09	Cocoa	2586	2587	$10.00
12/15/08	Long	1	FEB 09	Mini Gold	836.6	837.5	$29.88
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions							$39.88

Account Balances

Current Cash Balance	$47,927.72
Open Trade Equity	$39.88
Total Equity	$47,967.60
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$47,967.60

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $67,967.60
Weekly return: -3.6% --> Mostly due to the bad Aussie dollar trade
YTD return: -11.9%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately we've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a cool new time management software startup that is starting to lift off - and was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal.

Weekly Futures Positions Review - October 26, 2008

Top posts from the past week:

• The Case for Shorting Long Dated US Treasuries
  
• Why the Yen and Dollar are Rallying
  
• GoldMoney: Gold's New Highs vs. Other Currencies
• Jim Rogers on CNBC: October 22, 2008
• Foods and Softs Outlook
  

A review of my futures trades from the previous week:

• Covered my Swiss Franc long - Turns out I didn't want a dollar neutral trade after all. The Swiss Franc kept on dropping, and I got out.

Other existing positions I've got:

• Short the British Pound - Last time I shorted the British Pound, it turned out to be a quite profitable trade. The fundamentals of the Pound Sterling are terrible, and I think it's possible we could see the Pound at $1.50 over the next 12 months...or maybe over the next week at this rate.
  

• Short a couple of 10-Year Treasuries - Treasuries have performed quite poorly over the last two weeks, and Jim Rogers described them as the "last bubble left". Have they topped? I think they may have - and boy have they got some room to fall if interest rates skyrocket like I think they will. Although trending up since I shorted (what else is new), the chart still looks bearish, with lower highs and lower lows.
  

My wish list (waiting for an uptrend...and we could be waiting for awhile):

• Sugar
• Cotton
• Coffee
  
• Natural Gas
  
• Silver

Open Positions

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
10/10/08	Short	1	DEC 08	British Pound	1.6870	1.5804	$6,662.50
10/15/08	Short	1	DEC 08	T-Note (10yr)	111-250	115-105	($3,546.88)
10/13/08	Short	1	DEC 08	T-Note (10yr)	112-185	115-105	($2,750.00)
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:							$365.63

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance	$48,710.90
Open Trade Equity	$365.63
Total Equity	$49,076.53
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$49,076.53

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $69,076.53
Weekly return: 0.5%
YTD return: -10.4%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a time management software startup I'm working on.

Weekly Futures Positions Review - October 19, 2008

Top posts from the past week:

• Stratfor: States, Economies, and Markets: Redefining the Rules
  
• Marc Faber on CNBC - October 14, 2008
  
• Warren Buffett: I'm Buying US Stocks Now
  

A review of my futures trades from the previous week:

• Went long the Swiss Franc - As I mentioned last week, I wanted find a match for my short British pound position. And the Swiss Franc is my favorite European currency. I don't want to short the British pound outright, because then I'm essentially long the US dollar. This gives me a trade that is dollar neutral. And hey, if Jim Rogers is buying Swiss Francs, I figure I should be also.

• Shorted a couple of 10-Year Treasuries - Treasuries have performed quite poorly over the last two weeks, and Jim Rogers described them as the "last bubble left". Have they topped? I think they may have - and boy have they got some room to fall if interest rates skyrocket like I think they will.

Other existing positions I've got:

• Short the British Pound - Last time I shorted the British Pound, it turned out to be a quite profitable trade. The fundamentals of the Pound Sterling are terrible, and I think it's possible we could see the Pound at $1.50 over the next 12 months.
  

My wish list (waiting for an uptrend...and we could be waiting for awhile):

• Sugar
• Cotton
• Coffee
  
• Natural Gas
  
• Silver

Open Positions

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
10/10/08	Short	1	DEC 08	British Pound	1.6870	1.7266	($2,475.00)
10/13/08	Long	1	DEC 08	Swiss Franc	0.888800	0.8813	($937.50)
10/15/08	Short	1	DEC 08	T-Note (10yr)	111-250	112-020	($281.25)
10/13/08	Short	1	DEC 08	T-Note (10yr)	112-185	112-020	$515.63
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:							($3,178.13)

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance	$52,009.45
Open Trade Equity	($3,178.13)
Total Equity	$48,831.33
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$48,831.33

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $68,831.33

Weekly return: -3.2%
YTD return: -10.7%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a time management software startup I'm working on.

My Current Commodity Futures Positions - 10/05/08

Top posts from the past week:

• Financial Times: Wealthy Investors Demanding Unprecedented Amounts of Physical Gold
• Jim Rogers on CNBC 10/1/08
• Quick Thoughts on the Latest Black Monday
  

A review of my trades from the week that was:

• Closed out my Swiss Franc position - Yikes - this trade did not work out, I got hammered big-time. The Swissie was up big on Black Monday as the carry trade unwound...but probably not as big as it should have been. That should have been a cue for me to get out, but I hung in until around the 0.90 mark and got out.
  

Other existing positions I've got:

• Long the Japanese Yen - The Yen was way up early in the week as the carry trade was unwound in a big way on Black Monday. Then it came back down to Earth - but all in all, another impressive week in the face of continued (surprising?) strength from the US dollar.
  

• Long Gold - Very tough week for gold, but as we've discussed in this space before, I believe the government's printing of money as fast as it can will send the price of Gold and Silver higher. And not to sound like too much of a broken record here - but how long can spot prices stay low, when you can't buy the physical stuff?

• Short Soybeans - Soybean futures broke down in a big way this week. I plan to stay the course as a short.
  

• Short 10-Year Treasuries - I am quite bearish on long-dated US Treasuries. I think interest rates have to rise, and rise significantly, as I can't imagine the world will continue to lend the US government money at these bargain basement rates. Anyone care to finance a $700 billion bailout plan, by the way?
  

My wish list (waiting for an uptrend...and we could be waiting for awhile):

• Sugar
• Cotton
• Coffee
  
• Natural Gas
  
• Silver

Open Positions

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
09/04/08	Long	1	DEC 08	Japanese Yen	0.9340	0.9553	$2,662.50
09/24/08	Short	1	MAR 09	T-Note (10yr)	113-245	114-315	($1,218.75)
09/17/08	Long	1	DEC 08	Mini Gold	864.6	839.0	($849.92)
09/09/08	Short	1	NOV 08	Mini Soybeans	1168 1/4	989	$1,792.50
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:							$2,386.33

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance	$50,397.12
Open Trade Equity	$2,386.33
Total Equity	$52,783.45
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$52,783.45

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $72,783.45

Weekly return: -6.0%
YTD return: -5.2%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a software startup I'm working on.

My Current Commodity Futures Positions - 9/28/08

Top posts from the past week:

• Five Easy Ways You Can Diversify Away From the Dollar
• US Mint: Sorry, we're out of gold (again)
• Jim Rogers: Bailout is "welfare for the rich"
  

A review of my trades from the week that was:

• Went long the Swiss Franc - The Swissie is the Yen's carry trade cousin - they usually rise and fall in unison. The Swiss Franc is one of the world's sounder currencies, and I expect the carry trade will continue to unwind.
  

• Also shorted 10-Year Treasuries - As discussed earlier in the week, I am quite bearish on long-dated US Treasuries. I think interest rates have to rise, and rise significantly, as I can't imagine the world will continue to lend the US government money at these bargain basement rates.
  

Other existing positions I've got:

• Long the Japanese Yen - Not much action this week in the Yen.
  

• Long Gold - As we've discussed in this space before, I believe the government's printing of money as fast as it can will send the price of Gold and Silver higher.

• Short Soybeans - Nothing too exciting here, the trend still appears to be down. If the harvest is good, there will be a glut of soybeans on the market.

My wish list (waiting for an uptrend):

• Sugar
• Cotton
• Coffee
  
• Natural Gas
  
• Silver

Open Positions

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
09/04/08	Long	1	DEC 08	Japanese Yen	0.9340	0.9503	$2,037.50
09/22/08	Long	1	DEC 08	Swiss Franc	0.931700	0.9212	($1,312.50)
09/24/08	Short	1	MAR 09	T-Note (10yr)	113-245	113-225	$62.50
09/17/08	Long	1	DEC 08	Mini Gold	864.6	892.2	$916.32
09/09/08	Short	1	NOV 08	Mini Soybeans	1168 1/4	1167	$12.50
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:							$1,716.32

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance	$54,458.17
Open Trade Equity	$1,716.32
Total Equity	$56,174.49
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$56,174.49

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $76,174.49

Weekly return: 0.2%
YTD return: -0.4%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it to pay down my credit cards a bit. Why credit card debt? I'm financing a startup and trying to outpace my CC interest rate in the futures markets - kids, don't try this at home.

Current Commodity Futures Positions - 8/17/08

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, relief at last - that's me, pissing away the last of my 2008 gains. Glad we got that out of the way.

Tuesday I was feeling really smart, and bought a mini-silver contract at the bargain price of $15. Unfortunately nobody told me that the bargains were going to get even better! I sold silver on Friday for just over $13.

Hey, I got exactly what I deserved. Look at this chart of gold and silver, courtesy of Agora Financial:


What kind of idiot would try to time the bottom of that spike through the basement floor? (Pointing both thumbs at my chest...) "This guyyyyyy."

On Friday, I jumped into a vat of rough rice and holy water, and repented for my trading sins. Last time I fully repented was last November, when I developed a new trading outlook. That outlook served me very well until I decided I smarter than it.

Well, here's to new beginnings. As I repeat the mantra I should never have forgotten "The trend is my friend, the trend is my friend, don't eat yellow snow, the trend is my friend..."

Open Positions

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
08/12/08	Short	1	SEP 08	British Pound	1.9042	1.8620	$2,637.50
08/15/08	Short	1	DEC 08	Cocoa	2589	2587	$20.00
08/14/08	Short	1	NOV 08	Mini Soybeans	1260	1221	$390.00
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:							$3,047.50

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance	$56,272.41
Open Trade Equity	$3,047.50
Total Equity	$59,319.91
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$59,319.91

Cashed out: $18,000.00
Total value: $77,319.91

Weekly return: -8.0%
YTD return: 1.2%

***BTW, I usually "cash out" money just to pay for taxes, rent, and cheap beer. So total value is all pre-tax.

Current Commodity Futures Positions - 8/10/08

Took some more cash out this week to pay a credit card, and also pump some more cash into our startup.

Well, my hopes/dreams for '08 being a banner year I think are officially in the tank. Earlier in the year, I was hoping I could keep running up the account, and essentially use it as an ATM to fund my life and startup simultaneously.

Alas, it wasn't to be - really it's turning out to be a bummer year for agriculture. What started off so strong has essentially retraced all the way back (pull up the charts for soybeans, corn, cotton, etc - we haven't moved much). Tough to make money long commodities when they are not going up.

From here on in, I'm looking at doing some more trading in pairs, a la Dennis Gartman. My first try at this is my Long Cotton/Short Soybeans trade, and I must tip my cap to Bud Conrad of Casey Research for his astute short soybeans call in a recent publication. I was already long cotton, but would not have thought to short beans had it not been for an outstanding research piece by him.

Last week was a terrible time to be long any currency other than the US dollar, as the dead cat bounce is in full swing. Have to admit even though we've discussed it here that the dollar was due for a bounce, the magnitude and strength of it has really surprised me.

I'm considering adding a short British Pound position to compliment my (underwater) long Swiss Franc position. The UK economy is in trouble, and the BP could be in a race with the US dollar to the cellar - at least that pair would help hedge from further dollar rallies.

Overall a great entry point for the Swiss Franc and many of the Asian currencies here, I think. The dollar has further to drop, no doubt, but it will be a race to the cellar with many of the other currencies. I don't see the Euro, British Pound, or Canadian dollar climbing much more vs. the US dollar.

Also a great entry point for soft commodities - most notably sugar, coffee, and cotton. This trio is still trading at very depressed prices.

Open Positions

Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss 06/17/08 Long 1 DEC 08 Cotton 82.20 69.05 ($6,575.00) 08/05/08 Short 1 MAR 09 Soybeans 1303 3/4 1220 $4,187.50 07/29/08 Long 1 OCT 08 Sugar #11 12.84 13.46 $694.40 07/31/08 Long 1 OCT 08 Sugar #11 13.91 13.46 ($504.00) 07/31/08 Long 1 SEP 08 Swiss Franc 0.954900 0.9219 ($4,125.00) Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: ($6,322.10)

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance	$70,774.87
Open Trade Equity	($6,322.10)
Total Equity	$64,452.77
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$64,452.77

Cashed out: $18,000.00
Total value: $82,452.77

Weekly return: -9.3%
YTD return: 8.3%

***BTW, I usually "cash out" money just to pay for taxes, rent, and cheap beer. So total value is all pre-tax.

Commodity Market Thoughts

• Cattle's looking good - I'm keeping an eye on the Feeder market also. Wish I still had all my Live Cattle contracts, but oh well - looking to add on a new breakout.

• Pork bellies are not looking good - same article linked above mentions too much supply on the market.

• Quite a breakout by gold and silver over the past few days. Silver looks particularly intriguing, as it has a compelling supply/demand story also. I believe both are sitting right around their 50-day moving averages.

• All the commodity currencies are rallying quite strong. Will be interesting to see if the Aussie dollar can stay strong if the market turns down. I personally think there will be some short term panic selling, which will also drive the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc up.

• Sugar, as our buddy Toby said once, is acting like a giant turd. Too much supply on the market, it appears. Long term it's going much higher - until then, probably best to wait.

• Coffee is looking strong also. I'm going to sit back and wait on this one - coffee head fakes more often than #24.
  

Kevin Kerr: The Food Crisis, A First-Hand Report

Same story we've been following here. A nice rally in the grains today, and a little bit of life in the softs as well.

Can corn continue to break out from here? It's been rangebound for the past couple of months - I keep thinking that fundamentals will eventually prevail and push corn past the $7 mark.

In a "close your eyes and buy" trade, I picked up a mini Nat Gas contract this morning. I've been itching to buy it since it crossed the $8 mark, but lacked the testicular fortitude. I hate the volatility of Nat Gas, but no doubt which way the trend is going.

Also keeping a close eye on the Yen and Swiss Franc here. Both appear cheap, but could head lower as long as the "good times" remain on Wall St. When the next leg of the bear market hits, I expect these two to shoot up.

Dollar, Carry Trade Thoughts from Chuck Butler

A couple of good ones from Chuck in today's Daily Pfennig:

Well... How about that U.S. dollar? That's some currency Rudy! Why, look at it rallying against the euro and other currencies as if it's on a mission from God! It looks as if the U.S. has turned things around... The Deficit no longer needs to be financed with over $2 Billion a day in foreign investment... Interest rates are where they need to be to fight this soaring inflation... The Government has stopped spending wildly, and the Budget is balanced... The mortgage lenders have recovered all of their losses... There is no longer a credit crunch... And finally, the war is the Middle East is over...

But Wait! Unless I pulled a Rip Van Winkle and slept through all of that... These things haven't happened, nor do they look as though they might begin to happen any time soon! So, what the heck has the dollar bulls dancing in the streets swinging a mighty hammer?

And on the carry trades:

The U.S. stock market has been on a feeding frenzy since the rate cut on Wednesday... All this euphoria in stocks has the Carry Trade going great guns once again... This is being reflected in the price of yen and Swiss francs... I just don't see how this can continue to go on and on and on... The Carry Trade has longer lasting power than the Energizer Bunny! But one day, it will all come crashing down like a house of cards... At least that's my opinion...

Daily Pfennig: Blue Light Specials on Yen, Swiss Franc

Currency guru Chuck Butler at the Daily Pfennig has been waiving the flag for the Swissie and Yen for some time, long before their recent moves up.

He loves them at today's prices:

Swiss francs are back to parity with the dollar, and even beyond! Japanese yen is flirting with a sub-100 figure too! I believe the term, "blue light specials" was used by someone (me!) a couple of weeks ago describing the cheaper levels to buy these currencies... I love it when a plan comes together!

Chuck Butler on the Swiss Franc

Chuck Butler on the Swiss Franc and potential end of the carry trade, from his must-read currency newsletter, the Daily Pfennig:

Swiss inflation is really putting the pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to raise interest rates... Inflation in Switzerland accelerated faster than expected in March. In fact, it was the fastest monthly pace in 14 years! OK, get ready for this... Because from that introduction, you would think inflation was out of control here, right? Well... Inflation rose to 2.6%... Nonetheless, this is higher than the SNB's target of 2%... So... Hopefully the SNB will not rely strictly on the stronger franc to combat this rise in inflation... A rate hike in Switzerland could all but end the short selling in francs...

Why you ask? Ahhh grasshopper, sit... You, see... When a low yielding currency is used as the funding currency of the Carry Trade, it is sold "short", and the proceeds are used to purchase a higher yielding currency... Since the "short" currency's yields are low, the borrowing costs are low too... (when you sell short, someone has to lend it to you to sell, thus you are borrowing the currency)... But if the borrowing costs begin rise, that causes the trade to lose... And who wants a "losing" trade?

So... Grasshopper... If Switzerland's interest rates would go higher, their borrowing costs would go higher. This would cause the Carry Trades using Swiss francs as a funding currency to unwind, which means the "short" would get covered, and to cover a short... You BUY the currency! Thus driving the price of Swiss francs higher! YAHOO! That's it... That's all there is!

Jeremy Grantham Interview in Barron's

An interesting interview with superinvestor Jeremy Grantham.

Perhaps of interest to readers of this blog: he mentions he is long the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, and the Singapore dollar.

Dollar Ready to Rally vs. Euro?

Interesting take in Daily Wealth on why the dollar is about to rally vs. the Euro (scroll to bottom - though the top article is good too).

My opinion - even if the dollar does not rally vs. the Euro, I don't think it has much farther to fall vs. the Euro either. However the dollar does have a ways to drop vs. the Asian currencies in order to restore some sort of balance to the trade balances - those currencies have been artificially depressed for some time.

And don't forget the carry trade currencies - favorite of Jim Rogers right now - the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.

Jim Rogers Interview on resourceinvestor.com

Recent interview by our hero, Jim Rogers, on Resource Investor.

Much of the same material we've talked about here before, but I tried to read anything by Jim Rogers I can find. He reiterated his best investment ideas for right now:

• agriculture
• Chinese renminbi
• Swiss franc
• Japanese yen
• short Investment Banks

I have been reading that a lot of value investors are taking a hard look at Japan - stocks are so beaten down that many are trading for the cash on the books. Maybe another good way to get Yen exposure - something to investigate.

Swiss Francs Rallying...and I'm Back in!

Today we got a buy signal from the Swiss franc - and I'm happy to jump back in. I only wish I could have jumped in at a lower price...but I had to honor the new system. Rules are rules, you know. And I don't have the luxury of ignoring the rules of system like the Fed has the luxury of ignoring the rules of basic economics!

As previously mentioned, Jim Rogers is a huge fan of the Swiss franc, which should be enough to put it on the radar screen of any sophisticated investor. He believes the carry trade will unwind someday in a big way, which will send the Swiss franc soaring.

Back to basics - why is this important? The carry trade involves borrowing "cheap" currencies (with low interest rates) and investing in currencies with high interest rates. The carry trade currencies of choice are the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, which many (including Rogers) believe have been unfairly pounded down by this trade. The reasoning is that someday the music will stop, people will have to unwind this trade (we've seen this in fits and starts since the credit crunch), and the yen and Swiss franc will soar.

Chuck Butler, author of the Daily Pfennig on why he likes the Swiss francs fundamentals:
OK... Back to currencies... The Bhutto assassination reminded us that Swiss francs are still considered "safe assets" as we saw Swiss francs rise steadily during the day after the Bhutto news was printed. Gold also gained... And so did U.S. Treasuries... All considered to be "safe assets" in times of turmoil...

I like Swiss francs... I think they've been held down too long by the Carry Trade.... Good fundamentals... And no sub prime exposure!

Weekly Positions Update - 11/04/07

Shed about 3K this week, mostly because of coffee. Damn rain in Brazil is killing me.

Anyway a few new entries and old friends revisited:

* The gold contracts were added when Bernanke dropped his pants. Gold broke the important $800 mark and is showing no signs of slowing down. Still a decent entry point if you're not in the trade yet. I keep waiting for a correction - it has pretty much gone straight up for awhile here - but no signs of one at all.

* Loaded up on Aussie dollars again on Friday. When the market tanked on Thursday, carry trades were unwound which trashed the Aussie. This is getting to be a recurring theme. Anyway, this changes nothing. The Aussies are still going to have to raise interest rates later this year or early next. It's heading to parity - not a matter of it, but when.

* Bought some Swiss Franc's on the tip from our buddy Jim Rogers. Great interview here if you haven't seen it yet with the Financial Times. He mentions the Swiss Franc as one of his top rec's right now - he says when the carry trade ends someday (and it will), the Swiss Franc and Yen will pop. Saw this on Thu/Fri with the carry trade unwinding - I already have a nice gain on my position.

Also read this from Chuck Butler in the Daily Pfennig: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Gov. Roth, told the press that he will "take the necessary measures on interest rates should the franc's weakness stoke inflation." WOW! I can tell you this, he's directing that talk at the Carry Trade vultures that have preyed on the Swiss franc because of the low interest rates there... Look for franc strength from these words.

* The grains - a crappy week altogether. But these are all just waiting to pop, so we wait. Maybe not this month, maybe not next, but they all have a big run in them in the next few years.

The current positions:

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Strike	Call/Put	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss	Market Value	Action
11/01/07	Long	2	DEC 07	Australian Dlr			0.9135	0.9171	$720.00
10/29/07	Long	1	DEC 07	Australian Dlr			0.9188	0.9171	($170.00)
10/31/07	Long	1	DEC 07	Australian Dlr			0.9285	0.9171	($1,140.00)
09/24/07	Long	1	DEC 07	Cotton			66.00	64.31	($845.00)
01/22/07	Long	1	DEC 08	Cotton			63.00	75.21	$6,105.00
04/16/07	Long	1	DEC 08	Cotton			64.50	75.21	$5,355.00
07/27/07	Long	1	DEC 07	Coffee 'C'			115.30	119.90	$1,725.00
06/19/07	Long	1	DEC 07	Coffee 'C'			120.50	119.90	($225.00)
09/26/07	Long	1	DEC 07	Coffee 'C'			129.50	119.90	($3,600.00)
03/29/07	Long	1	NOV 09	Soybeans			828	930	$5,100.00
09/26/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Sugar #11			10.02	9.94	($89.60)
08/11/06	Long	1	MAR 08	Sugar #11			14.50	9.94	($5,107.20)
06/04/07	Long	2	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.05	10.12	$156.80
08/01/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.48	10.12	($403.20)
10/18/06	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			12.08	10.12	($2,195.20)
10/31/07	Long	1	DEC 07	Swiss Franc			0.864500	0.8694	$612.50
10/31/07	Long	3	DEC 07	Mini Gold			789.2	809.3	$2,001.96
10/31/07	Long	1	DEC 07	Mini Gold			797.2	809.3	$401.72
10/31/07	Long	1	DEC 07	Mini Gold			797.3	809.3	$398.40
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:									$8,801.18

Current Cash Balance	$71,592.01
Open Trade Equity	$8,801.18
Total Equity	$80,393.19
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$80,393.19

Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $85,393.19