Well, my hopes/dreams for '08 being a banner year I think are officially in the tank. Earlier in the year, I was hoping I could keep running up the account, and essentially use it as an ATM to fund my life and startup simultaneously.
Alas, it wasn't to be - really it's turning out to be a bummer year for agriculture. What started off so strong has essentially retraced all the way back (pull up the charts for soybeans, corn, cotton, etc - we haven't moved much). Tough to make money long commodities when they are not going up.
From here on in, I'm looking at doing some more trading in pairs, a la Dennis Gartman. My first try at this is my Long Cotton/Short Soybeans trade, and I must tip my cap to Bud Conrad of Casey Research for his astute short soybeans call in a recent publication. I was already long cotton, but would not have thought to short beans had it not been for an outstanding research piece by him.
Last week was a terrible time to be long any currency other than the US dollar, as the dead cat bounce is in full swing. Have to admit even though we've discussed it here that the dollar was due for a bounce, the magnitude and strength of it has really surprised me.
I'm considering adding a short British Pound position to compliment my (underwater) long Swiss Franc position. The UK economy is in trouble, and the BP could be in a race with the US dollar to the cellar - at least that pair would help hedge from further dollar rallies.
Overall a great entry point for the Swiss Franc and many of the Asian currencies here, I think. The dollar has further to drop, no doubt, but it will be a race to the cellar with many of the other currencies. I don't see the Euro, British Pound, or Canadian dollar climbing much more vs. the US dollar.
Also a great entry point for soft commodities - most notably sugar, coffee, and cotton. This trio is still trading at very depressed prices.
|Current Cash Balance||$70,774.87|
|Open Trade Equity||($6,322.10)|
|Long Option Value||$0.00|
|Short Option Value||$0.00|
|Net Liquidating Value||$64,452.77|
Cashed out: $18,000.00
Total value: $82,452.77
Weekly return: -9.3%
YTD return: 8.3%
***BTW, I usually "cash out" money just to pay for taxes, rent, and cheap beer. So total value is all pre-tax.