Where to Place Your Stops on Commodity Trades (Hint: BELOW Obvious Support)

Here's a classic example of why it's advisable to keep your stops just below obvious levels - and out of the market, too.

Our rice trade thus far has not panned out as hoped (we bought the two-year breakout in rice prices on February 1st - here's why).

After an initial continued run higher, rice broke down in a big way.  Though I had mentioned moving my stops up to higher support levels, the market dropped faster than I acted - and I kept 13.50 in mind as a level of strong support (and a logical place for a stop).

Experienced traders say you should never enter your stop in the market - but instead keep it in your head, or on a spreadsheet, or in a software program not connected to your brokerage account.  Well, here's a great example of why they say that:

Source: Barchart.com (Click to enlarge)

How many weak hands were driven out of this trade when the powers that be sent rice "limit down" 3 days in a row - just below 13.50, where most longs surely had their stops placed?

I don't know how this trade will pan out from here - perhaps it will remain a loser - but I found this to be a classic case study on why: 1) you don't put your stops in the market, and 2) why you need to set your stops below the obvious levels that everyone else is using.

Now perhaps I should consider taking the Jim Rogers approach to buy on the dips rather than the breakouts - especially at or near key support levels.  We'll keep an eye on this entry strategy, especially with respect to the grains and softs.

Though "back in the day" (cerca 2005-08), buying the breakouts was a profitable entry strategy for me in these markets.

Ed. note: We publish a free daily newsletter, The Contrary Investing Report, which highlights trading and investing stories that are key to your financial success and survival. Please subscribe here.

An Update on Our Rough Rice Futures Trade

We've seen a lot of mustard on the price action in rough rice since we initiated our long May 2011 futures position - but for all that, we are just about where we started:

Which, actually, is perfectly fine with me.  Since I generally use a 15-day low as my stop on these trades, a week or two of sideways trading is great, because it raises the stop - and hence, lowers the risk on the trade.

When entering this trade at the beginning of the month, we really had to use 13.50 cents as the stop.  After a couple weeks of sideways action, we can raise that up to around 15.00, or even 15.50.

  

Source: Barchart.com

For the fundamental reasons and motivation behind this trade, see the article I wrote for Hard Assets Investor: Why We're Setting Up For a Rally in Rice.

Rough Rice Looked Good Today - The Only Green on the Screen!

So far, so good on that "long rice" trade - always a good sign when your position is the only green on the screen!

Today was a forgettable one for most grains - but rice stood tall amidst the apathy. (Source: Barchart.com)

For some background on our rough rice trade...

• The favorable supply/demand fundamentals
• The two-year rice breakout that prompted us to "go long"

Jim Rogers' Two Favorite Commodities to Buy Right Now

Jim Rogers may like gold - but he LOVES silver.

“I would rather own silver than gold," Rogers tells India's ET Now

“Silver is still 40 percent below its all-time high. So silver has not been any sort of great bubble compared to perhaps some other assets we know." (Source: Moneynews.com)

And Jim, an agricultural bull since he opened his commodity fund in 1998, picks rice as his favorite grain:

“Likewise for the rice, if rice goes down, I will buy more rice. So both the silver and rice have a great future for the next few years,” Rogers says.

Incidentally there was an article in today's Wall Street Journal that reported farmers are reducing acreage for rice by as much as 30%, in favor of higher priced cotton and soybeans:

A shift in planting likely will come in the spring when farmers sow their fields in Arkansas and Louisiana, analysts said. They are projecting as much as a 30% cut in acreage devoted to long-grain rice. Growers will turn to soybeans, cotton or other crops after becoming frustrated with rice prices, which have lagged behind other agricultural commodities.

In 2010, U.S. rice futures fell nearly 4%, in contrast to soybean futures that climbed 34% and cotton futures that rose 91%. Driving the price gains were concerns that production wouldn't keep pace with demand, particularly as China's appetite for imports surged.

With corn, soybeans, cotton, and rice often competing for the same land, the sharp speculator can often do quite well buying the laggard(s) - which, in this case, is rice.

Precisely because farmers usually neglect the crop with the lagging price, and instead plant the crops that have already rallied.  Which reduces the supply of said grain.

Rough rice is still well off its 2008 highs - with potential acreage reductions on tap, we could see a breakout soon. (Source: Barchart.com)

This is exactly the reason we we'd been salivating over the potential for cotton for so long - it was a matter of when prices would rocket, not if.  And rocket they did!

When cotton broke out - largely thanks to supply constraints - it really did a moonshot!

The playbook was analogous with King Cotton - soybeans and corn had been rallying for years, while cotton's price languished.  So farmers who had traditionally planted cotton increasingly got eyes for the sexier returns its ag cousins could bring instead.  Supply fell - and soon after, prices rocketed.

So if you're looking to invest like Jim Rogers - and get some exposure to the grains - it looks like rice is the most reasonably priced starch for your plate today.

Hat tip Daily Crux for the original link.

This Just In...There's Too Much Damn Corn! Futures Get Trashed

Corn futures are getting absolutely trashed this morning...along with basically everything else in the commodities sector.

July futures are down nearly 8% as I write, as the USDA just reported that corn stocks are up 6% from a month earlier. Obviously the market does not like this supply news, and corn is being heavily discounted as a result.

The USDA also reported soybean stocks down 12%, while wheat stocks are up 118% from a month earlier. Wheat and soybeans are also down on the report...beans down only half a percent though, so a decent performance in the wake of the carnage.

This looks like another "all or nothing" day in the markets - with the dollar and T-bonds up, and everything else down. We've been keeping an eye on this lack of decoupling...and I think we can assume it hasn't happened yet.

Notable performances in the commodity sector today by rough rice and orange juice...the only green ticks amidst a sea of red. Keep an eye on these two, as strong performances on down days can imply good things to come.

I wouldn't interpret this as a nail in the coffin of the bull market in agriculture - more likely just a respite for this year. The old saying is that if corn doesn't rally by July 4th, it's not going to happen.

We still appear, though, to be playing a game of Russian Roulette with the food supply - we basically need a bumper crop every year to keep this cheap food party going. Grain supplies remain near record lows, so the 2010 grain contracts may be an interesting speculation in the near future...or perhaps right now.

Puking up corn chunks...right past the line of support.

(Source: Barchart.com)

Interested in investing in agriculture...a la Jim Rogers? Check out our weekly series This Week in Commodities.

PS - If you haven't taken our 3-question reader survey yet, please take a minute to do so - much appreciated, as it helps me gauge what type of content we should focus on here.

Corn Demand Projected to Outpace Supply This Year

The LA Times reports that corn supplies are tightening, with supply/demand projected to be "upside down" this year:

This year's harvest is expected to yield 11.9 billion bushels, down 155 million from last month's projection. The decline is due to soggy weather in such corn-producing states as Illinois, where farmers have delayed planting.

Total use of the corn crop is projected to be 12.5 billion bushels, which would outstrip this year's supply by 525 million bushels.

That means the corn surplus would be drawn down heavily, according to the USDA report, leaving about 1.1 billion bushels at the end of the year. That's 510 million bushels fewer than USDA analysts had expected.

Also, supplies are very low for...drumroll...soybeans! Lowest supply levels since 1983 according to the article...when demand was only half of what it is today, to boot.

Thanks to my friend Jonathan of Lederer Private Wealth Management for passing this piece along.

Wheat, Corn Stocks Still at 30-Year Lows

Despite record harvests last year, corn and wheat stocks are still sitting near 30-year lows.  Which means, anything short of a bumper crop could send the grains skywards once again.

Here are some very cool charts, courtesy of Chris Mayer at DailyWealth, that depict the stocks-to-use ratios of of wheat and corn since 1970, versus their inflation-adjusted prices.

Investing in grains is actually pretty easy - when supplies are low, and prices are low, you know prices should eventually go up.  Then, at some point, high prices spur enough new supply onto the market that prices come down.  Ideally, that's when you go short!

You'll notice from the charts that grain stocks and prices move in fairly long cycles - about 15 to 20 years in length.  It takes time to bring new supply online, to replenish stocks...ultimately to rebalance the supply/demand situation.

This time should be no different.  China is industrializing in a big way, and its citizens have taken a liking to eating, a habit they're not likely to give up, no matter how bad the global economy gets.  Most notably, they are adopting Western style high protein diets, with lots more meat...and livestock require a lot of grains to raise.

Bottom line - it's safe to tune out the talking heads on TV when thinking about agriculture...just focus on supply and demand.  It's that simple.  When demand exceeds supply, prices will rise, until supply is able to overtake demand.  Sure, things like currency devaluation, a falling dollar, will toss fuel on the fire...but at the end of the day, it's all about supply and demand.

Stocks Down Today...So What Commodities Did Well?

Regular readers know that we've been anxiously awaiting the decoupling of commodities and currencies from stocks.  These asset classes are historically uncorrelated.  That changed late last year when the financial world ended, and everything went down the crapper at about the same speed.

Except, of course, the US dollar and bonds...but I digress...

Today stocks were down...the DOW dropped about 100.  These are the days I love to watch...so we can pick out the notable performers.  

Good performances from today...

• Gold...up $13.80 to close at $951
• Silver...up $0.16 to close at $14.44
• Coffee...up 2.50 to close at 135.80
• Sugar...up 0.24 to close at 15.62 (this is why you never take profits, like I recently did, to wait for a pullback...it may never pullback, and you lose your position)
• Soybeans...up 6 to close at 1175

The dollar got hit today...long dated US Treasuries got slammed BIG...makes you wonder if we're starting to see a return to fundamentals.

Gold and silver look like they could be gearing up for some big moves.  Sell in May and go away?  Maybe not quite yet.

Also, it's nice to see sugar up on a day when oil was down.  It was dumb of me to give up that position...

Marc Faber Loves Agriculture at These Prices

Marc Faber says that investing in agriculture today will be like investing in oil in 2001, when it was priced at $17/barrel, according to The National Post.

Faber says that record low inventories, declining agricultural productivity, and increasing demand for food will drive prices higher.

The falling productivity line is especially interesting...Faber says productivity in agriculture has been declining since 1990, and expects that trend to continue.  If this is true, which I'd imagine it is, it's counter to what most folks (including me) believe.

Read the full article here...

More reasons to invest in agriculture:

• Jim Rogers loves the fundamentals too
• Sugar especially has an appealing supply/demand situation shaping up

Ed. Note: Stay up to date on the latest in agriculture and be sure to check out our weekly insights published every Sunday: This Week in Commodities

Jim Rogers: The US is About to Have a Currency Crisis

If you have the majority of your savings in US dollars, this may be the most important insight you ever hear from Jim Rogers.

In an interview with Bloomberg from this morning, Rogers said:

“We’re going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall or the fall of 2010.  It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally in the dollar, so it’s time for a currency crisis.”

Jim reiterated that the place to be invested is in commodities, particularly agriculture:

"You're going to have serious food shortages in the next 3-5 years - prices are going to go through the roof."

You can view a video of this entire interview using this link (click on the "Video" tab on top).

Want some ideas about agricultural commodities with particularly appealing fundamentals right now?  Check out This Week in Commodities, which is heavily focused on agricultural commodities - right now we're invested in sugar and orange juice, both profitable trades to date and still climbing.

More recent insights from Jim Rogers:

• Rogers believes world is heading for Depression
• Jim interviewed by GoldSeek Radio
• Rogers prefers oil over gold right now

Ed. Note: I just got done reading Jim Rogers' new book - review to follow. Long story short, it's an insightful, quick read that I'd highly recommend. Pick up a copy if you haven't already:

Soft Commodities are Starting to Scream: "Inflation!"

Milton Friedman said that inflation is "always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."  Judging by the recent price action in many of the soft and agricultural commodities, they appear to agree.

Ben Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression, is making a bet the Friedman was wrong.  Bernanke believes that because Friedman did much of his work during a period of time when the velocity of money was relatively constant, he did not properly account for this factor in determining inflation.

Helicopter Ben is conducting this "Great Experiment" of money printing to stave off a Depression based on the monetary theory developed by economist Irving Fisher, who believed the Depression occurred because money velocity dropped off a cliff, and there was no increase in money supply to counter this.  Thus the US slipped into a deflationary spiral.

This is the big question - when the velocity of money drops, as it is today, should the money supply be increased?  Who's right - Fisher or Friedman?

We don't yet know - though, as always, the market will decide the winners and losers.  And lately it's hard not to notice what the commodity markets have been telling us, especially agriculture.

First, let's see Exhibit A - the adjusted monetary base of the US, which still appears to be in a "bull market":

Many of us saw the initial spike and immediately yelled "Inflation!"  We loaded up and gold and ran for the hills.  And what happened?  The spike in monetary growth continued to grow to the sky, and gold got slammed - along with almost every other asset class.  (Save the US Dollar and US Treasuries - hats off if you had that trade, as you are a true "contrarian's contrarian"!)

Fast forward to a few weeks ago, and we noticed that not only had commodities appeared to have formed a bottom, but they were starting to climb.

This week, we saw a full fledged break out in the softs and the grains - let's quickly have a look at three of our current favorites.

Sugar futures - our old favorite - rallied over 5% this week, to close a shade under 15-cents.  Sugar's been on a steady climb - fundamentals look quite appealing, as we discussed last week, and there's no arguing with this chart:

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View the full YO/K9-NM chart at Wikinvest

Cotton futures continued their strong rally, breaking right past the low 50's resistance we were keeping an eye on:

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View the full CT/K9-CT chart at Wikinvest

Finally take a look at Soybeans!  This rally was kicked off when soybean acreage came in below expectations, and it's been off to the races ever since:

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View the full S/K9-CB chart at Wikinvest

So which will it be, inflation or deflation?  Don't get too hung up in economic theory - remember that the markets are always right.  And right now, these markets, buoyed as well by strong fundamentals, appear to be casting an emphatic vote for inflation!

 

Top Commodity and Economic News...

• Why gold is going much higher than $2,000
• Jim Rogers interviewed by GoldSeek Radio
• The US is now "swimming" in Natural Gas
• Atlas Shrugged sales are soaring!

Current Futures Positions

Nothing new...unfortunately!  I thought about adding to the sugar position on Thursday - and I should have!  Will seriously look at adding another contract tomorrow or Tuesday on continued strength.

Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Last Profit

04/08/09  Long  1 JUL 09 Orange Juice 81.95 85.10 $472.50

04/20/09  Long  1 JUL 09  Sugar #11     13.79  14.91$1,713.60

Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions $2,186.10

Current Account Value: $26,920.49

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $46,920.49
Weekly return: 3.5%
2009 YTD return: -47.0% (Don't call it a comeback!)

Prior year's results:
2008: -8%
2007: 175%
2006: 60%
2005: 805%

Initial stake: $2,000.00

Editor's Note: This article was also published by SeekingAlpha.com.

Jim Rogers in BusinessWeek - April 14, 2009

Our favorite investor, Jim Rogers, was recently interviewed by BusinessWeek magazine - he's been in the media quite a bit recently, plugging his new book A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons for Life and Investing, which is scheduled to be released this Tuesday, April 28.

Here are a few of my favorite excerpts below - and you can read the whole piece on BusinessWeek.com.

On diversification:

"Diversification is something that stock brokers came up with to protect themselves, so they wouldn't get sued [for making bad investment choices for clients]. Henry Ford never diversified, Bill Gates didn't diversify. The way to get rich is to put your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket very carefully. And make sure you have the right basket."

On commodities:

"If the world economy is going to revive, commodities are going to lead it back up. If the world economy is not going to revive, commodities are still the place to be—especially with governments printing so much money. Look at the 1970s. The world economy was in the tank, but commodities did very well. We have supply constraints. Oil production is declining."

"The prices historically are still very depressed, compared with most other commodities. I bought all commodities recently, but I probably bought more agriculture than anything else."

More recent coverage of Jim Rogers:

• Jim prefers oil over gold right now
• An excellent 30-min TV interview from March, where he mentions he thinks the world is heading for a depression
• Rogers waiting to short US Treasuries - again

Receive our Jim Rogers updates on Twitter: https://twitter.com/commoditybull

Sugar Futures Rally, OJ Takes a Breather - This Week In Commodities

Sugar Futures Surge to a 6-Month High

Sugar futures rallied nearly 4% on Friday, over half a cent, to close the week at 14.18.  Looks like we've got a new breakout to the upside!

Sugar futures continue their steady climb.  (Source: Barchart.com)

The market continued to focus on the news that India may turn into a net importer of sugar this year.  Indian production is falling to a 4-year low, which, surprise surprise, is spurring prices up.  Don't worry though, Indian politicians are on the scene, with rhetoric and threats of banning futures trading to "halt" this price rise - ha!  

Also bullish for sugar is continued strength in oil prices, which means Brazil will use more of its sugar for fuel.  Last report I recall reading had Brazilian ethanol profitable at roughly $50 oil, so that's the number I keep an eye on.

Finally demand for sugar is still projected to outpace supply this year, so we've got some strong underpinnings for a sustained rise in sugar in the months to come.  

OJ Takes a Breather

Orange juice futures took a bit of a breather this week.  Appears to be just a technical correction and profit taking, as I was not able to find any fundamental news to challenge our initial hypothesis for going long OJ.

Orange juice cooled off this week.

Other Commodity and Economic News

• Oil supply is coming offline at a breathtaking clip
• Natural gas is nearing its cost of production
• How bad will the financial crisis get?

Current Futures Positions

Rolled the May contract over to July earlier in the week.  Other than that, not much new. 

Thinking about adding to OJ, sugar positions on further strength.

Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Last Profit

04/08/09  Long  1 JUL 09 Orange Juice 81.95 85.00 $457.50

02/27/09  Long  1 JUL 09  Sugar #11     13.79  14.12 ($672.00)

Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions $1,286.30

Current Account Value: $26,020.69

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $46,020.69
Weekly return: 0.1%
2009 YTD return: -48.8% (Don't call it a comeback!)

Prior year's results:
2008: -8%
2007: 175%
2006: 60%
2005: 805%

Initial stake: $2,000.00

The Snowball Effect of Agricultural Subsidies in America

The folks at Reason TV recently put together an excellent 8-minute video about agricultural subsidies in America, from their roots in the Great Depression, to their effects today on commodity prices and economies around the world.

As a commodities trader and/or investor, it's extremely important for you to be familiar with these subsidies.

I should warn that you may get a little riled up and enraged in exploring the absurdity of these subsidies, and the collective ignorance of the politicians who allow them to continue.  

Just be sure to regather your personal Zen before trading reopens on Monday. While agricultural subsidies are obviously complete bullshit, their existence, and more importantly, future changes to them, can have drastic effects on commodity prices, and hence our trading. So it's important that we anticipate their effects with a clear head.

For example, if there was a real chance that cotton subsidies could be reduced or eliminated in the US, you can believe that the futures markets would quickly take this fact into account, and you'd see cotton futures prices start to really take off.

And if you want some cocktail party fodder for riling up any liberals in your life - higher cotton prices would indeed help many poor Africa nations, whose farmers are not cost competitive today because they don't have a government behind them printing money and subsidizing their farming.  So there you go - we can profit by speculating on cotton, and also help the poor kids in Africa.  

Yes we can!

Donald Coxe Still a Commodity Bull

Famous investor Donald Coxe took a real bath in 2008 (along with the rest of us commodity bulls) - he was heavily overweighted in commodities, and, though bearish on the overall economy, he still believed commodities were the place to be.  Hmmmmm, sounds a little familiar.

Despite the huge setbacks last year, Coxe still believes commodities are the place to be for the medium to long term, citing his belief that rising middle classes in India and China will drive demand to new heights.  Coxe is especially bullish on agriculture.

Cotton Ready to Bounce off its "Double Bottom"?

Cotton put in a strong effort today - up 1.21, on a day when many of the softs were down - so I perused the short and long term charts for May futures.

Looks like cotton definitely has put in a double bottom, which is usually seen as a bullish indicator, and is rallying off its lows.  If cotton breaks above its highs from earlier this year, we'll be very interested in potentially taking a position here.

Source: BarChart.com

USDA Planting Intentions Report Sparks Rally in Grains

Corn and soybean futures each jumped roughly 5% today after the USDA released its Planting Intentions Report.

Some quick highlights from the report reveal that there appears to be plenty of corn and beans coming our way, but cotton will continue to be neglected, as we had anticipated.

• Corn acreage is down 1% from last year, but is still projected to be the 3rd largest acreage in over 50 years.

• Soybean acreage is on track for a record year, up slightly from 2008.  This is below expectations though, hence the rally.

• Cotton acreage is projected to be 7% below last years total, and the lowest since 1983.  The Associated Press reports that low acreage and high production costs are being blamed.

Cotton futures rallied on today's planting intentions report.

Coffee Grounds Make Good Biodiesel, Researchers Report

The Economist reports that researchers at the University of Nevada at Reno have found that coffee grounds can be turned into biodiesel that is comparable in quality to top biodiesel on the market today.

Because the biodiesel is made from grounds, no extra land has to be diverted in order to generate the inputs for this type of biodiesel. And if that wasn't green enough for you - the grounds can even be composted after the biodiesel is extracted.

We've discussed before that the long term supply/demand picture for coffee points towards higher prices, and we'll stay tuned to see if biodiesel is able to warp the coffee market that way it was able to send corn up to $8.  I know the process looks green on paper, but never say never, we may get some good crops diverted for biodiesel yet.

Weekly Commodities Review: Which Side of the Corn Trade Should We Take?

On Monday, the USDA released it's agriculture supply and demand projections, which sent grains "limit down" for the day across the board, and many of the softs down sharply as well.

That proved to be the worst of it - as grains slowly recovered during the week as the market digested the news, finishing the week off with a sharp rally on Friday.

As you can tell from my positions as of last Sunday, I was not prepared to handle a "limit down" day across the grains board. It's one of those days that, as a leveraged trader, you just want to vomit.

I had an offsite meeting in the morning, so returned to the home office after markets had closed to see the carnage. Not only was I down 25% (!) on the day, but also still had these positions open. Everything had closed limit down, and I had no clue where this market was going to find a bottom - and even when I'd be able to get out of these positions.

Fortunately I was able to get out that evening during the Asian trading sessions - basically covered the grains positions and also my Treasuries short, leaving only cotton open.

Then while sipping some wine and reading the WSJ later that night, I read analysts mentioned they liked soybeans more than corn. So the next day, I went long soybeans, and short corn - nothing like a little wreckless pair trading to get over a big loss.

Well this trade actually held up OK until Friday morning, when, bless his heart, my commodities broker Robert gave me a call.

"Brett, I'd really like to get you in on this corn trade. It's trading $0.50 below the cost of production. Farmers are already switching to soybeans."

After picking Robert's brain for about 10 minutes, I had him put the trade through for me (he manages my Rollover IRA account), and ran to my computer here to cover that corn short, and then go long.

Phew - not a moment too soon - corn finished the day on a sharp rally.

Yesterday I did some online research and found that, indeed, it could be a difficult year for corn farmers. $4 corn ain't what it used to be for these guys, with input costs sharply higher these days.

We'll continue to watch the corn markets closely.



Recommended reading:

• Doug Casey believes we've begun what he calls "The Greater Depression." In this insightful article, he explores the foundations of the current crisis we're facing.

• Sugar prices continue to climb, and there could be a supply shortage shaping up soon.

Open positions

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
01/16/09	Long	1	MAR 09	Corn	374 3/4	389 3/4	$750.00
12/31/08	Long	1	MAR 09	Cotton	48.52	48.84	$160.00
01/13/09	Long	1	MAR 09	Mini Soybeans	987 1/4	1020	$327.50
01/13/09	Long	1	MAR 09	Mini Soybeans	989 1/4	1020	$307.50
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions							$1,545.00

Account Balances

Current Cash Balance	$39,234.38
Open Trade Equity	$1,545.00
Total Equity	$40,779.38
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$40,779.38

---------------------------------------------
Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $60,779.38
Weekly return: -16.0%
2009 YTD return: -19.7%

2008 return: -8%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, living expenses, and startup capital for our time management software company that was recently covered by the Sacramento Business Journal and Inc magazine.

Tough Year Ahead for Corn Farmers?

Corn farmers could be in some trouble this year reports the Batavia News, an upstate New York newspaper.

The (corn) price has been hovering near $4. That could be trouble for farmers if there is an average or below average crop.

Many of his customers have ordered more soybean seed. That crop requires less fertilizer. New York farmers last year planted 235,000 acres of soybeans, the most ever in the state. That was up 15 percent from the previous high of 205,000 planted in 2007.

Tip of the hat to Tom Rivers on a very well written and investigated piece!