My Current Commodity Futures Positions - 10/05/08

Top posts from the past week:

• Financial Times: Wealthy Investors Demanding Unprecedented Amounts of Physical Gold
• Jim Rogers on CNBC 10/1/08
• Quick Thoughts on the Latest Black Monday
  

A review of my trades from the week that was:

• Closed out my Swiss Franc position - Yikes - this trade did not work out, I got hammered big-time. The Swissie was up big on Black Monday as the carry trade unwound...but probably not as big as it should have been. That should have been a cue for me to get out, but I hung in until around the 0.90 mark and got out.
  

Other existing positions I've got:

• Long the Japanese Yen - The Yen was way up early in the week as the carry trade was unwound in a big way on Black Monday. Then it came back down to Earth - but all in all, another impressive week in the face of continued (surprising?) strength from the US dollar.
  

• Long Gold - Very tough week for gold, but as we've discussed in this space before, I believe the government's printing of money as fast as it can will send the price of Gold and Silver higher. And not to sound like too much of a broken record here - but how long can spot prices stay low, when you can't buy the physical stuff?

• Short Soybeans - Soybean futures broke down in a big way this week. I plan to stay the course as a short.
  

• Short 10-Year Treasuries - I am quite bearish on long-dated US Treasuries. I think interest rates have to rise, and rise significantly, as I can't imagine the world will continue to lend the US government money at these bargain basement rates. Anyone care to finance a $700 billion bailout plan, by the way?
  

My wish list (waiting for an uptrend...and we could be waiting for awhile):

• Sugar
• Cotton
• Coffee
  
• Natural Gas
  
• Silver

Open Positions

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
09/04/08	Long	1	DEC 08	Japanese Yen	0.9340	0.9553	$2,662.50
09/24/08	Short	1	MAR 09	T-Note (10yr)	113-245	114-315	($1,218.75)
09/17/08	Long	1	DEC 08	Mini Gold	864.6	839.0	($849.92)
09/09/08	Short	1	NOV 08	Mini Soybeans	1168 1/4	989	$1,792.50
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:							$2,386.33

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance	$50,397.12
Open Trade Equity	$2,386.33
Total Equity	$52,783.45
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$52,783.45

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $72,783.45

Weekly return: -6.0%
YTD return: -5.2%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a software startup I'm working on.