Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Another Record High for Rice

Courtesy of Agora's 5 Min Forecast:

Headlining the global food crisis, rice found itself another record high yesterday.

Futures in Chicago ticked up another 2.3%, to $22.67, per 100 pounds when the Philippines -- the world’s biggest rice importer -- put in a buy order for 1 million metric tons. That’s more than 50% of all the Philippine rice imports in 2007… clearly, the government is concerned about food supplies.

According to the USDA yesterday, only 2% of the Arkansas rice crop is in the ground. Arkansas, the biggest rice state in the U.S., had planted 31% of its crop this time last year. As Kevin reported yesterday about corn crops this year… too wet, too cold to plant.


pharmer said...

First, congrats on the decision to step out of the old job and into something new, hope all works well for you. Sure would be nice to just trade from home for a living huh?... Anyways, two quick things, Gartman says now's the time to take profits in rice and pull the eject lever. He thinks a major round of liquidation is on the way here. Also, WTF on the yen man!?! I totally agree with you it's a good buy, but I'm getting killed down here at.98 and change. Seriously though, congrats and keep up the blogging!

-Kyle (pharmer)

SugarHigh said...

Hey Kyle - thanks man!

Certainly have to listen when Gartman speaks - I guess I just have a problem selling while rice is in runaway mode. I'm keeping a tight stop - am also wary that another mass liquidation could be on the way - but I feel that I have no way to predict it until it starts.

Worth noting - Gartman also called for a rice correction back around 18-19 cents.

Hear ya on the Yen - but you know, the Yen and the Swissie will take off when the next round of liquidation does stop. But I don't really have a good feel for it - I have not really been successful in my currency trading, though I insist on still doing it for some reason. I do have the Yen stop at 0.975 - we'll see if it gets hit before it takes off again.


Toby said...

Just wanted to mention that a TON of stops are probably right there on the Yen. Be careful, they might go stop hunting :)

Arghhh, I got in today on Cotton and quickly got stopped out. Bizarre action. Up huge yesterday, then reverse and big time continuation today. Bought a wheat contract though. Would like a corn one too if we can correct another 5-10 points.

Good luck on the carry trade currencies man, my feeling is that we are actually gonna test these recent lows.

SugarHigh said...

Good point Toby - actually did sell my Yen contract, in favor of coffee :)

Had to sell the worst performer to make room, and the Yen was it. I'd love to re-enter at some point, but I'm just terrible at figuring out when currencies are about to move.

Toby said...

Haha, well that makes two of us...damn currencies are impossible.

I bought a sugar contract too...thought you'd be proud :)

Coffee, I almost bought at 132 but I find coffee to be a gnarly beast. Sheesh even Cotton kicked my butt and stopped be out in 50 minutes! I remember that same stop kept me in Cotton for months in the past. Different times I guess.

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