Short the British Pound - Last time I shorted the British Pound, it turned out to be a quite profitable trade. I plan to hold this position until the GBP hits a 15-day high against the US dollar.
My wish list...and it looks like these commodities are at least starting to form a bottom, at last:
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a cool new time management software startup that is starting to lift off.
Jim Rogers was interviewed on November 25 by Mike Schneider. Not too much new here if you've been tracking Rogers closely already, but it's a very thorough and insightful five-part interview by Rogers:
A hysterical and insightful turkey analogy in today's Daily Reckoning:
"Until today or tomorrow, the typical turkey enjoyed a fairly decent life," commented our friend Nassim Taleb, in Zurich yesterday.
"You can understand how fraudulent most economic analysis is," Nassim explained, "just by looking the life of the turkey.The animal is fed for 1000 days...and then it is killed.So, if you plotted out the turkey's life on a chart, it would look great for 1,000 days...each day, the food arrived reliably, and each day, the turkey gained weight.The turkeys would look around and say they were enjoying growth and a bull market.
Momentum investors would see it as an opportunity.The quants would run linear regressions on the data and prove that the risk was minimal. "
Ben Bernanke would describe the turkey's life - with no setbacks - as the product of a"great moderation."Turkey stockbrokers would assure their clients that nothing had ever gone wrong in the turkey's life.Turkey econometricians and theorists would come up with explanations for why the turkeys' growth would continue forever and they'd pat each other on the back for having finally mastered the "turkey cycle."Turkey politicians would run for re-election on the grounds that they had helped create a better world.And turkey economists would project further weight gains...until the turkey was the size of a hippopotamus
Then, come Thanksgiving, and all of a sudden, something goes wrong.Alas,
all the turkeys' theories, models, and conceits were for the birds.
"Rare events can't be modeled," Nassim continued."Because they are too rare.You can't get a statistically reliable sample.Alan Greenspan recently explained that he 'had never seen anything like this before.'
Well, of course he had never seen it before.It never happened before.
"Because these events are so rare, they are also completely unpredictable...and usually much worse than you can expect. Like Thanksgiving Day for the turkey."
As the economic crisis continues to unfold, recently a sense of uncertainty has begun to pervade the market. Even dyed-in-the-wool risk takers admit that they don’t know what to think anymore. Inflation, deflation, recession or depression – there are so many vagaries that it appears to be anyone’s guess what will happen next.
Despite the current, volatile environment, though, our expert team at Casey Research maintain their core prediction: that a highly inflationary cycle is not far off. While we, along with several external experts, continuously review our assumptions and conclusions and encourage dissenting opinions and analysis to avoid biased conclusions, so far we keep returning to our views about what’s coming. That said, the hardest thing to predict is not what will happen, but when.
The way I see it, the swift, far-reaching and mostly ill-conceived reactions from most of the world’s governments under the leadership of two apprentice sorcerers (Bernanke and Paulson) have until now resulted in a widespread run for an exit to nowhere, a deep credit freeze, and total and indiscriminate mistrust in the market and all of its players.
The fact remains that in the last year, many principles that have long been rooted in the success of capitalism have been thrown out of the window.
First, market players discovered that the longest-lasting asset bubble in recent history was made possible by poor regulations (as opposed to lack thereof), greed, and the misunderstood and misrepresented risks of credit derivatives.
Second, we found out the real meaning of “too big to fail.” If a business is large enough and has enough clout, it doesn’t matter how poorly managed it has been, it will be bailed out at the expense of taxpayers (us) and investors (us again).
Third, we found that the rating systems the financial markets had been relying on have been misleading investors and failing to identify some of the riskiest asset classes. As a result, investors and all other economic agents are left with no means of evaluating risk as they conduct business, hence the credit freeze and rush to cash.
Fourth, to add to the confusion, the U.S. Fed and Treasury, followed by many other central banks, have been altering the rules of the game by the minute (buying toxic waste at face value, bailing out certain financial institutions but not others, becoming shareholders of several behemoths in the banking and insurance industry, and trumping all accepted rules of creditors’ and stakeholders’ priority, prohibiting the shorting of certain classes of assets on a moment’s notice).
Last but not least, the U.S. presidency, weakened by almost eight years of mismanagement, has continued to show total lack of leadership. It has empowered a couple of technocrats to run the country’s finances without leadership until a new administration gets in and, hopefully quickly, figures out what to do. To make matters worse, the EU has shown its ugliest face and demonstrated a fact we all truly knew but didn’t want to recognize until recently -- that economic unity and coordination is easy in good times but almost impossible when the going gets tough.
No wonder economic actors are wreaking havoc as they race for shelter.
Add to this the fact that all natural resources have been hammered by the combination of a credit freeze and lower real and anticipated demand from most industrial nations.
Finally, junior exploration stocks – being very thinly traded and rightfully considered to be in a higher risk class -- have been hammered twice as hard as the rest of the markets (hence the performance of the TSX-V, which has lost 76% in the last year and 30% in the past 30 days alone). The fact that many hedge funds had to unwind large positions in such a small market certainly did not help values.
What does this mean for investors in this market?
We all have suffered significant losses in our portfolios, and although our choices may have reduced some of the downside, quality companies have been hit almost as hard as fly-by-night juniors with no future.
Several of our companies are trading at or below cash value and get no goodwill for the significant assets and outstanding management teams they have assembled.
Although there is no way to tell when we will hit a bottom in these markets, we believe that once tax-loss selling season is over and reality settles in, we will see the beginning of a slow recovery process for the best of the juniors. Investors who have the ability to stay the course and are invested in the highest-quality juniors will recover from their losses and benefit from what will eventually be another bull market in commodities.
Precious metals and agriculture, followed by certain segments of the energy sector, will lead the way to widespread price increases across the range of commodities. While we can’t predict the exact timing of this run, the fundamentals are in place once the world economies take a turn for the better or at least stabilize somewhat.
Here is why:
The current crisis is taking tremendous amounts of needed capacity off the supply pipeline. Whether it be energy, base metals, or agricultural goods, projects to bring online expensive oilfields and alternative fuel sources are being shelved and will take years to get back on track. Mines are closing and projects are being canceled, thereby removing much of the supply; the credit squeeze is cutting down on agricultural investment, and working capital constraints will dramatically limit supply.
The world’s demographics are not changing, nor are the aspirations of a hard-working, fast-growing middle class in emerging economies. The changes that drove commodity markets up for the last few years are long lasting and real.
Peak Oil and peak-everything. There is limited supply for many commodities, and although there are alternatives (curbing consumption and finding alternative sources of energy), it takes large investments to do so. In current markets, many of these investments are going to be put aside until the next crisis/shortage hits – at which point we will have years of a commodities bull run before an equilibrium is reached.
We anticipate that China, Russia, and India will take advantage of low commodity prices to secure very large, long-term supply commitments while the Western world licks its wounds and tries to recover. By the time we do, an even larger portion of the world’s available resources may no longer be available on the markets, for example oil and gas.
In the last edition of Casey Energy Opportunities, Marin Katusa pondered how the U.S. is going to replace the supply of uranium when the HEU program with Russia is set to expire in 2013. The answer is that the U.S. will struggle to replace 40% of its needs, and this will benefit a handful of U.S. suppliers with proven reserves. Currently shares of these companies, which have the cash to develop resources or are already producing with positive cash flows, are incredibly cheap – a win-win situation. Eventually similar opportunities will come from copper and strategic metals.
We can expect the world to continue to be a very unstable place, where regional conflicts can quickly spread and spin out of control, with obvious impact on the smooth supply of key commodities (Gulf region, Nigeria, former Soviet republics, to name a few). In fact, a widespread financial crisis could precipitate those events as conflicts are often linked to economic hardship.
The unprecedented deficits, a wave of bailouts, and growth in the money creation by central banks in the Western world will eventually lead to massive inflation. In the U.S. alone, the monetary supply has increased by 50% since early September. This will unequivocally reverse the current short-term deflationary pressures and lead to a steep devaluation of the dollar and other major currencies. At that point, precious metals and all tangible assets are poised for a strong recovery.
So, if you ask me if I am still bullish on the resource sector, my answer yes, now more than ever. Juniors are juniors, and when things go wrong, they get beaten down. The strong ones with great teams and lots of cash will survive and prosper, the others will disappear. When commodities come back with a vengeance, there will be fewer companies, almost all with good projects… and those who are invested in these few companies will see a very sizeable appreciation of their capital as the broader public returns.
It’s very hard to be a contrarian investor, especially when all forces seem to be against you, but one thing the markets have taught me is that memory on the Street is unbelievably short, and they will come back.
***
Not only is the economy presently going haywire, there’s also still the boogeyman of Peak Oil looming on the horizon. While oil prices are at a low not seen for a while, it is all but certain that this sweet relief for motorists won’t last very long.
When oil prices come roaring back, the energy market will virtually explode… and,if you are safely positioned in the right stocks by then, your bank account will too. Being a contrarian investor could earn you a fortune in the times ahead.
Editor's Note: I am a happy and satisfied Casey Research subscriber, and recently began partnering with them as an affiliate. -Brett
This is something we've been discussing here of late. Farmers cannot get basic loans for fertilizer. Forget about new capital investments. And this all happening with world inventories of the grains hovering near historic lows.
But he closes the article by mentioning that the danger is much greater on the long side of this trade - and mentions a great recent quote on the topic by legendary investor Rick Rule:
"Money will be attracted to the liquidity and transparency of the U.S. long Treasury market. I think this will be the final bubble of my generation. Crowding into a 20-year bond in a depreciating currency when inflation sets in, and long rates inevitably rise, will be a religious experience for the victims, in my opinion."
If you're trading or investing in gold, I'd recommend checking out this free video piece from INO.com: Is gold the last store of value?
The video was shot Friday afternoon, and some of the predictions have already come to fruition - namely that gold would quickly retrace 50-62% of it's previous move (which Dennis Gartman refers to as "the box") and trade in the range it's currently in.
Towards the end, you get a better perspective on the recent pullback in the context of the overall gold bull market - important to note that gold is still in a bull market. And in a bull market, you should be a buyer, not a seller.
Like many of you, I have been quite frustrated in gold not "acting like it should." I am not a gold bug by any stretch of the imagination, but I think it's an appropriate investment at this point in time, as Obama continues to fill key economic positions with money printers.
Are there any grains worth buying at these prices? Have you seen any article, commentary that may be of help?
This question was posed by our buddy and regular reader/contributor Moyo, who runs the fine commodity focused site FuturesCafe.
I think that sugar, cotton, and coffee are the most attractive agriculture plays at this point. For the simple reason that their prices have not moved up recently - therefore, additional supply has not come on the market. Couple this fact with the further tightening of supply that commodities will experience across the board as a result of the current state of the credit markets, and these, I believe, are good candidate commodities to lead the way up.
Cotton is the most attractive investment opportunity I can see - it is actually trading below the prices it was at when the bull market in commodities began in the first place.
Cotton's price spike in 07-08 was really a speculative phenomena. Traders started piling into cotton futures contracts, as everyone knew cotton was destined for a spike - driven by reduced supply as farmers planted higher priced corn and soybeans in lieu of cotton.
The self-fulfilling prophesy proved to be short-lived, as the market was not able to sustain a rally. But it's coming.
Wheat also may be worth a look here. Corn, rice, and soybeans interest me less, as they are coming off a recent run-up, and have been planted from sea to sea across the world. It may take more time to work off the new supply on the market - though it's possible that prices already reflect this.
BOTTOM LINE: "Ag-flation" is coming again, in a very big way. Agriculture is very attractive at current prices, but I would caution you against being "early" into these trades. Wait for an uptrend - you'll have plenty of time to build up your positions, as commodities, particularly agriculture, are likely to be the first assets to recover in price.
Here's a recent interview of Jim Rogers on FT.com (Financial Times) on November 17, 2008. It's a four-part interview, with a total running time of about 16-17 minutes.
Below are my notes from the interview.
Part 1 - Global recession will be long and deep.
He has not yet exited his US dollar positions, as he believes the current rally is an artificial one driven by short covering.
It could go longer and higher than anyone expects.
Reiterated his opinion that the US dollar is a flawed and maybe doomed currency.
We're going to have the worst recession since World War II
Likely we'll see exchange controls at some point in the US
Part 2 - Market correction is good for commodities.
The way to make money now is to buy the things where the fundamentals have been unimpaired.
Not only are the fundamentals of commodities unimpaired, but they have been strengthened, as supply is going to take a serious hit across the board as a result of tight credit markets.
"Farmers can't get loans for fertilizer now."
In the 30's, commodities hit bottom first because there was no supply. The same thing happened in the 1970's - again because there was no supply.
Part 3 - China economic story still intact.
"Selling China in 2008 would be like selling America in 1908. You might have looked good in the short term...but who cares?"
He bought more Chinese shares in Oct/Nov of this year.
Also believes the fundamentals of China will come out of this recession unimpaired.
Part 4 - Inflation is coming - you'd better own real assets.
We're following the mistakes of Japan by bailing everyone out.
This is the first time in world history that every government in the world is printing money.
It will lead to much, much higher prices.
Don't sell your gold, cotton, or sugar, because prices will be much, much higher in a few years.
We are not experiencing deflation - this is forced liquidation. We're fighting the wrong battle by fighting deflation.
Want to be alerted about Jim Rogers coverage as it happens? Send an email to "Brett(at)CommodityBullMarket.com" and put "Rogers updates" in the subject line - we'll add you to our email alert list.
A review of my futures trades from the previous week:
No trades last week! The semi-vacation from the markets continues. And why not - these markets are too tough to trade, at least for a hack like me.
Other existing positions I've got:
Short the British Pound - Last time I shorted the British Pound, it turned out to be a quite profitable trade. I plan to hold this position until the GBP hits a 15-day high against the US dollar.
My wish list (waiting for an uptrend...and we could be waiting for awhile):
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a bitchin' time management software startup that is starting to lift off.
"There is no wonder the dollar will weaken," said Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's former top currency official and now a professor at Waseda University. "The dollar now looks strong for a technical reason. The money the US financial firms had invested in the world is being repatriated into the homeland, causing dollar-buying. But once this conversion into the dollars is done, the currency will head south," Sakakibara said at a forum in Tokyo on Sunday.
I completely agree with the assessment of the Japanese economists quoted in this story. The irresponsible fiscal behavior is not only bad for the future of the US dollar, but it's going to cause long term interest rates to rise significantly. That could result in an outright crash of our currency.
"If Americans ever allow banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless." - Thomas Jefferson
I joked last week that cotton futures were heading towards zero - apparently oil took exception to my joke, and has accelerated it's speed towards the basement.
Can you spot the trend in the oil chart?
Many folks, myself included, thought we'd never see sub-$50 oil again. The speed of this decline has been absolutely breathtaking.
What's next? I wouldn't try to pick the bottom yet. But there will be a bottom eventually. This is a result of forced selling. None of the supply/demand imbalances have been corrected.
They say the cure for high prices is high prices - and high prices sure did the trick when oil topped $140. The global economy basically stopped working, and demand dropped.
Well the flip side of that coin is that the cure for low prices is low prices. Unfortunately all of our energy conservation and alternative energy efforts take a back seat in our minds when gas is back under two bucks ($2 gas again! I almost dropped my bottle of beer as we walked our dog around the neighborhood last night and saw 1.97 unleaded on the sign down the street.)
Demand will come back eventually, provided the world is not ending - and the world does have a habit of not ending. And when demand comes back, we'll see oil above $150 or even $200...likely sooner than we think.
I would highly recommend checking out Taleb's book Fooled by Randomness - it's a very insightful, interesting read about the weakness of financial "certainties" - and was written before the financial world melted down.
Warning: after watching this video, you may be tempted to jump out of the nearest window. Please watch from a 1st story location, or even better, the basement of your house.
Legendary investor Jim Rogers says bonds will be a "terrible" investment as economic problems may persist until 2010.
"Stocks in the West are still expensive on any historic valuation method,'' while "bonds are going to be a terrible place to be for the next 10, 20 years,'' Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said at a conference in Seoul today. Equities in the West will be "in a trading range for years to come,'' he said.
George Soros says a "deep recession is now inevitable, and the possibility of a depression cannot be ruled out, according to Soros' recent Congressional testimony.
A review of my futures trades from the previous week:
Covered my short of 10-Year Treasuries- Unfortunately I got stopped out of this position. I was either early on this trade, or wrong - is there a difference? Though I'm primed and ready to reinitiate this position if we see interest rates skyrocket like I think they will.
Other existing positions I've got:
Short the British Pound - Last time I shorted the British Pound, it turned out to be a quite profitable trade. The fundamentals of the Pound Sterling are terrible - and that huge rate cut just delivered by the Bank of England will not help protect their currency.
My wish list (waiting for an uptrend...and we could be waiting for awhile):
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a time management software startup I'm working on.
A plan to save the world -- part two, or is it three? by Adam Hewison, President, INO.com
When Paulson came out today and stated that his earlier plan to save the western world was not working, he offered up a plan "C" (or is it "D") to relieve pressure on consumer credit, scrapping his earlier effort to buy the value mortgage assets.
No matter what happens or what the next plan is here, are the 3 reasons I believe stocks are headed lower.
* Number one: The trend in most all stocks is down. This trend is likely to persist and last longer than most people imagine.
* Number two: There is no plan. The government is floundering and does not have a plan that is going to work anytime soon.
* Number three: We have a lame-duck president, and nothing is going to happen of any consequence until President-elect Obama is sworn in.
Okay, so let's look at the first problem. Most people trading the market today have had no experience in a prolonged bear market like the one we had in the '70s. That bear market was brutal as it did not let anyone out. Over the course of the early '70s, the bear market basically wore people out to the extent they eventually just threw in the towel. We believe the market is going to make another new low and take out the recent lows that were put in place in early October. Unlike a bull market that constantly needs positive news to drive it higher, a bear market just falls under its own weight.
The second problem we have is that there is no concrete plan in place to rescue the economy. In fact, the domestic and global economic issues are so great that they are overwhelming in scope. The Paulson plan, which is being changed and will continue to change, is a major concern and creates significant uncertainty in the marketplace. Only when we see the new regime take! off ice this coming January will we see any meaningful changes.
The third problem we have is a lame-duck president. This is a major problem for the markets as President-elect Obama can not make any sweeping changes until he is sworn into office. Yes, he may hit the ground running, but the reality is, it's not for over two months from now and a lot can happen to the market in two months. The key levels that everyone is going to be watching for are the recent lows we saw in early October. If these lows are taken out, and I expect they will be, it's going to push this market and everything else down to new lows. It will exacerbate the housing situation, the unemployment situation and most of all, the morale of the country.
Having lived through the bear market of the '70s, I know firsthand how difficult the journey we face is going to be. Now this may seem like a very pessimistic outlook and in some ways it is, however there are always opportunities to make mone! y i n the marketplace. These opportunities may not be in stocks! , it may be in forex or the commodity markets.
Trading below 40 cents, cotton must be one of the most underpriced commodities in the history of western civilization.
Supply was already under pressure, as farmers neglected planting cotton in recent years in favor of higher priced grains, such as corn and soybeans.
Lock and load, because we're going to see cotton skyrocket at some point over the next few years. Prices are now at their lowest levels since 2001 - before this whole commodity parted really got started!
Here's another news bit that appears to be medium-long term bullish for sugar futures. I recall reading that sugar based ethanol is cost competitive with oil at $50 or above, so even with the recent correction in oil, the sugarcane based ethanol industry of Brazil continues to boom.
peHUB: Paladin Puts Sugar in the Gas Tank The Brazilian ethanol market is booming, due to both the cost-effectiveness of sugarcane and a national adoption of ethanol as the power source of choice. Ninety percent of new cars sold in Brazil are flex-fuel, and new plants keep popping up to satisfy demand. VREC will focus on building new production plants, which will include co-generation facilities that can sell gas byproduct into the Brazilian power grid.
China is in a precarious position as the world economy grinds to a halt. Out of it's 1.3 billion people, most have not participated in the economic boom the greater country has experienced.
Let me know if this sounds familiar - the rich have gotten richer, while the poor have stayed, well, relatively poor. As a side note, you can see there is nothing unique, wrong, or evil about this phenomenon that has taken place in the US. It's the way of nature - the greater the progress, the more of a gap that develops between the haves and have nots - a topic we could explore at great length in and of itself.
Back to China - the majority of the population still lives in the countryside, and the majority of the population is still poor. And they do not like seeing their fellow countrymen get rich without their fair share (sound familiar again?)
To this point, the Chinese government has been able to pacify the masses with sufficient government bread and circuses, as long as the economy continues to hum. But the Chinese state, as currently constituted, may not be able to survive a deep recession, at least without a potential revolution from its countryside.
Historically, most Chinese uprisings originate from the countryside. Expect the Chinese government to do whatever is necessary to prevent a severe slowdown. They must establish domestic demand for their products and stop relying on exports, and they must do it soon.
I think they'll be able to hold things together. Unlike the US, the balance sheet of China (both consumers and the greater government) is quite plush right now. The Chinese save a lot of their money, and they have sufficient capital to get through this - not to mention if/when they really catch on to credit cards, which we saw evidence of earlier this summer.
So what does this all have to do with interest rates in the US? The Chinese government will have less money to stash in US Treasuries - which will put a significant dent in the demand for US Treasuries - which should send rates up, up, and up.
How can you participate in this trade? I'd suggest looking at the ETF TBT, which was suggested by several of our readers here, and probably the easiest way to short long-dated treasuries. By buying TBT, you are essentially placing a leveraged short on long-dated treasuries.
TLT is another potential play - it's the inverse of TBT, so you'd want to short it. For what it's worth, legendary trader Dennis Gartman said he prefers a long TBT position to a short TLT position.
A review of my futures trades from the previous week:
No trades last week - again!
Other existing positions I've got:
Short the British Pound - Last time I shorted the British Pound, it turned out to be a quite profitable trade. The fundamentals of the Pound Sterling are terrible - and that huge rate cut just delivered by the Bank of England will not help protect their currency.
Short a couple of 10-Year Treasuries- Treasuries have performed quite poorly over the last month or so, and Jim Rogers described them as the "last bubble left". Have they topped? I think they may have - and boy have they got some room to fall if interest rates skyrocket like I think they will. Although trending up since I shorted (what else is new), the chart still looks bearish, with lower highs and lower lows. Some significant potential resistance coming up around 112.
My wish list (waiting for an uptrend...and we could be waiting for awhile):
***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a time management software startup I'm working on.
It's worth a quick look, I think, to appreciate the speed and magnitude of this recent decline. And also a good reminder why trying to pick the exact bottom is a fool's game. But, we're all guilty of it - it's so tempting, and you think it just CAN'T go any lower!
Also a side note, this is the 1st video I've posted from INO.com, so I would be interested to hear feedback on this. I deemed it worth a look, but probably only for the 1st minute or 2 - then it turns into more of a sales pitch, in my opinion.
Staying on the beat of shorting US Treasuries, I came across this article from Money Morning - quick excerpt and link to full article:
The U.S. Treasury Department announced Nov. 3 that it intended to borrow a record $550 billion in the fourth quarter. That represents a staggering $408 billion increase over Treasury’s borrowing estimate from early August and includes $260 billion for the recapitalization of U.S. banks.
I don't know about you, but I've got a case of the election blues. And not because my guy didn't win - I didn't even have a horse in this race, I couldn't bring myself to vote for any of these turkeys.
So to cheer up, I've dug out the latest Jim Rogers video. Now here's a guy I KNOW is angrier than I am right now - with free market economics going the way of the Dodo Bird, Tyrannosaurus Rex, and the capital gains tax cut (ugh).
Jim Rogers' latest thoughts (and some great one-liners):
Bailouts are going to lead to inflation, higher interest rates, and a declining dollar
The US is making the same mistakes Japan has made, by not letting bad banks fail
My favorite line: "Ben Bernanke is not even as smart as Greenpan, and he was not smart at all"
My 3rd favorite: "You can have 10-15 years of bad economics, or you can have 1-2 of bad economics"
My 2nd favorite: "All (Paulson) has to do is resign and close the Federal Reserve, and the crisis takes care of itself"
Another gem: "That's why they're in politics - because they don't know anything"
The only way to make money is to buy the things where the fundamentals are unimpaired - and the only thing that fits that bill is...drumroll...wait for it...wait for it...commodities!
He owns gold, but the IMF is about to sell a lot of gold - so it could go to $600. If it does, he'll buy a lot. If it goes to $900, he'll buy a lot.
He's buying agriculture, oil, and shorting government bonds "today"
Sugar's going to go through the roof over the next two decades - and he breaks out a packet on air!
Highly recommended 20/20 piece by John Stossel - this originally aired on October 17, 2008. Summary of each video by yours truly.
What does this have to do with investing and markets? Everything. You can't invest today without a thorough understanding of the idiotic decisions coming down the pike by our elected bureaucrats.
I'd recommend parts I, II, and V specifically - but the whole piece is great from start to finish.
Part I - People who believe politicians can make society better are fools.
Part II - Today's economic problems were caused by too much government meddling, not too little.
Part III - The comedy of errors by the government in rebuilding New Orleans - the best results were generated by volunteers who went around the government.
Part IV - Making fun of bureaucratic red tape that prevents newbies from getting involved in politics.
One of my absolute favorite blogs is johnsterling.blogspot.com, for its absolutely hilarious coverage of the New York Yankees.
Our content usually does not overlap, but here's a gem I have to point out. For all you Republicans out there, I present you with - The Reagan, by Edgar Allen Limbaugh.
Here's an excerpt of the first verse:
Once upon a midnight dryly, while I pondered Bill O’Reilly, Raging o’er The New York Times, their leftist crimes, in times, unsure. While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping,
Like some rapper, loudly yapping, rapping to his latest score. “’Tis some liberal,' I muttered, “singing songs against the war, “Only this, and nothing more.”
I first got interested in commodities in 2005 after reading Jim Rogers' book Hot Commodities. Since then I've been an armchair trader and blogger.
My "day job" is running a software startup, Chrometa.
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