Sunday, November 23, 2008

Jim Rogers Video on - November 17, 2008

Here's a recent interview of Jim Rogers on (Financial Times) on November 17, 2008. It's a four-part interview, with a total running time of about 16-17 minutes.

Below are my notes from the interview.

Part 1 - Global recession will be long and deep.
  • He has not yet exited his US dollar positions, as he believes the current rally is an artificial one driven by short covering.
  • It could go longer and higher than anyone expects.
  • Reiterated his opinion that the US dollar is a flawed and maybe doomed currency.
  • We're going to have the worst recession since World War II
  • Likely we'll see exchange controls at some point in the US
Part 2 - Market correction is good for commodities.
  • The way to make money now is to buy the things where the fundamentals have been unimpaired.
  • Not only are the fundamentals of commodities unimpaired, but they have been strengthened, as supply is going to take a serious hit across the board as a result of tight credit markets.
  • "Farmers can't get loans for fertilizer now."
  • In the 30's, commodities hit bottom first because there was no supply. The same thing happened in the 1970's - again because there was no supply.
Part 3 - China economic story still intact.
  • "Selling China in 2008 would be like selling America in 1908. You might have looked good in the short term...but who cares?"
  • He bought more Chinese shares in Oct/Nov of this year.
  • Also believes the fundamentals of China will come out of this recession unimpaired.
Part 4 - Inflation is coming - you'd better own real assets.
  • We're following the mistakes of Japan by bailing everyone out.
  • This is the first time in world history that every government in the world is printing money.
  • It will lead to much, much higher prices.
  • Don't sell your gold, cotton, or sugar, because prices will be much, much higher in a few years.
  • We are not experiencing deflation - this is forced liquidation. We're fighting the wrong battle by fighting deflation.
Editors note: Click here to read more recent coverage of Jim Rogers.

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