Below are my notes from the interview.
Part 1 - Global recession will be long and deep.
- He has not yet exited his US dollar positions, as he believes the current rally is an artificial one driven by short covering.
- It could go longer and higher than anyone expects.
- Reiterated his opinion that the US dollar is a flawed and maybe doomed currency.
- We're going to have the worst recession since World War II
- Likely we'll see exchange controls at some point in the US
- The way to make money now is to buy the things where the fundamentals have been unimpaired.
- Not only are the fundamentals of commodities unimpaired, but they have been strengthened, as supply is going to take a serious hit across the board as a result of tight credit markets.
- "Farmers can't get loans for fertilizer now."
- In the 30's, commodities hit bottom first because there was no supply. The same thing happened in the 1970's - again because there was no supply.
- "Selling China in 2008 would be like selling America in 1908. You might have looked good in the short term...but who cares?"
- He bought more Chinese shares in Oct/Nov of this year.
- Also believes the fundamentals of China will come out of this recession unimpaired.
- We're following the mistakes of Japan by bailing everyone out.
- This is the first time in world history that every government in the world is printing money.
- It will lead to much, much higher prices.
- Don't sell your gold, cotton, or sugar, because prices will be much, much higher in a few years.
- We are not experiencing deflation - this is forced liquidation. We're fighting the wrong battle by fighting deflation.
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