Chart: Gold vs. Stocks

This chart blew me away. Stocks, priced in gold, have been tanking for 8 years running.

Oil vs. Natural Gas

The ratio of the price of oil, in comparison to natural gas, is very high right now compared with historical standards. This article does a good job of explaining this (it's a few months old, but the ratio is still roughly the same).

The author is not a fan of going long nat gas and shorting oil - but I disagree. I think that is a logical 'hedge fund-esque' strategy, given the current price discrepancy. Oil could have trouble holding at current levels if the US does fall into recession (I think we're already in one). Sure, most of the growth in oil demand is from China - but will it continue at this pace if the US consumer stays in the fertile position?

Anyway a viable strategy to consider - though I am still partial to the grains and softs at this point in time.

The "Big Canadian Lumber Dump"

Very interesting opportunity ahead for us, perhaps, in the lumber market.

I have not traded lumber before, but that could change once this downtrend stops. We'll keep a close eye on the lumber charts here for you.

Weekly Positions Update - 01/27/08

My bad (thumping my chest with my palm). Tough week.

Good thing I made those "crash proof" trades Monday night - I think I managed to sell at the absolute bottom. Ah well, that's usually the way it works.

I thought about adding a YTD calculation to improve my mood - but I'll hold the gimmicks for now.

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Strike	Call/Put	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Cotton			66.45	67.89	$720.00
01/09/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Cotton			69.61	67.89	($860.00)
01/22/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Japanese Yen			0.9460	0.9380	($1,000.00)
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Sugar #11			11.10	11.90	$896.00
06/04/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.05	12.33	$2,553.60
08/01/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.48	12.33	$2,072.00
12/20/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			11.37	12.33	$1,075.20
01/02/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Swiss Franc			0.899500	0.9124	$1,612.50
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:									$7,069.30

Current Cash Balance	$72,417.54
Open Trade Equity	$7,069.30
Total Equity	$79,486.84
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$79,486.84

Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $84,486.84

Weekly return: -17.0%

Zimbabwe's $10 Million bill

Don't laugh too hard - we're not that far off ourselves at this rate.

Dangerous Times in Commodities

Even though the bull market and supply/demand story is still firmly in place for commodities, expect rocky trading going forward. Many hedge funds have been piling into these trades, driving the prices higher than normal, creating a "price premium".

So, when funds have to bail out of everything due to margin calls (a la earlier this week) - expect sharp sell offs, fundamentals be damned. These sell offs create nice buying opportunities if you are the "buying on dips" variety. What does that mean going forward in the near term? It's probably best to use reduced leverage - I learned that the hard way this week myself.

Kevin Kerr on this subject in Agora's 5 Min. Forecast:
“I am not convinced that the global market is done with the widespread selling,” our resource man Kevin Kerr chimes in. “Many of the commodities will probably lose more value. It’s very hard to say what will happen, because the volatility is so extreme that it’s tough to keep up. It is a very difficult time to trade, and I usually stay on the sidelines until the selling seems to be exhausted.

“When the Fed meets next week, it will likely make yet another dramatic rate cut -- maybe another three-quarters of a point, maybe more. However, soon, the interest rate goody bag will be empty, so Mr. Bernanke had better hope it works.

“We are seeing much of the premium disappear from the equity and commodities markets, because hedge funds and investors need to cover margin calls. It becomes a domino effect, and prices can tumble.”

How to profit from rising soft commodity prices

Nice article in Moneyweek with quotes from our hero, Jimmy Rogers.

Soros: US Recession is "Almost Inevitable"

The famed investor goes on to say that he does not expect a global recession.

I take this as a cue to be wary of going long energy (highly US dependent), but feel good about grains and softs, which should not be as affected by a US recession.

Special "Impending Crash" Positions Adjustment

Like everyone else - I'm worried the US markets are going to crash, or at least severely tank, tomorrow. Grains have been down big already this week, and the US markets have not even opened.

So instead of waiting around to be slaughtered like a lamb...I'm trying to play a little offense. Here's an overview of the trades I made tonight - we'll see how they work out tomorrow.

1. Sold the grains. They have been looking weak. Needed to deleverage.
2. Shorted crude oil. This is a hedge. If the softs drop (sugar, cotton, etc) in panic selling, I imagine crude will suffer more.
3. Bought the Japanese Yen. I expect we could see a spike in the Yen and/or Swiss Franc amid panic selling, as traders rush to cover their carry trades.

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Strike	Call/Put	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
01/03/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Corn			468	478 1/4	$512.50
01/14/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Cocoa			2214	2126	($880.00)
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Cotton			66.45	70.79	$2,170.00
01/09/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Cotton			69.61	70.79	$590.00
01/22/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Japanese Yen			0.9460	0.9461	$12.50
11/09/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Coffee 'C'			126.05	133.00	$2,606.25
01/22/08	Short	1	MAR 08	Crude Oil (e-miNY)			87.450	87.400	$25.00
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Sugar #11			11.10	12.16	$1,187.20
06/04/07	Long	2	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.05	12.65	$5,824.00
08/01/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.48	12.65	$2,430.40
12/20/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			11.37	12.65	$1,433.60
10/18/06	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			12.08	12.65	$638.40
01/02/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Swiss Franc			0.899500	0.9037	$525.00
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:									$17,074.85

Weekly Positions Update - 01/20/08

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Strike	Call/Put	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
01/10/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Australian Dlr			0.8889	0.8733	($1,560.00)
12/07/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Corn			415	498 1/2	$4,175.00
12/14/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Corn			439	498 1/2	$2,975.00
01/03/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Corn			468	498 1/2	$1,525.00
01/14/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Cocoa			2214	2126	($880.00)
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Cotton			66.45	70.79	$2,170.00
01/09/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Cotton			69.61	70.79	$590.00
11/09/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Coffee 'C'			126.05	133.00	$2,606.25
12/26/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Oats			308 3/4	319 1/2	$537.50
12/21/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Rough Rice			13.855	14.270	$830.00
01/09/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Rough Rice			14.540	14.270	($540.00)
01/14/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Rough Rice			14.645	14.270	($750.00)
11/28/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Soybeans			1108	1266	$7,900.00
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Sugar #11			11.10	12.16	$1,187.20
06/04/07	Long	2	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.05	12.65	$5,824.00
08/01/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.48	12.65	$2,430.40
12/20/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			11.37	12.65	$1,433.60
10/18/06	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			12.08	12.65	$638.40
01/02/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Swiss Franc			0.899500	0.9107	$1,400.00
12/27/07	Long	1	FEB 08	Mini Gold			834.5	881.4	$1,557.08
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:									$34,049.43

Current Cash Balance	$61,663.74
Open Trade Equity	$34,049.43
Total Equity	$95,713.17
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$95,713.17

Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $100,713.17

Weekly return: -1.4%

No $100 Oil for President Trump

Great interview by The Donald on Fox News with a hilarious finish.
(search for Trump Talks).

"If I were president, you'd have $30 oil right now. I would call up Saudi Arabia and say 'That f***ing pricing is coming down...and it's coming down now. And you know what? They'd lower their price so quickly."

Unchartered Economic Waters

Great piece by Marc Faber in Wednesday's Daily Reckoning.

Deutsche Bank to Expand Commodities Staff Up to 25%

Hmmmm - as a contrarian investor, stories like this make me nervous.

On the bright side, maybe some readers can apply.

CHK Mention in Rude Awakening

Right on cue - a nice synopsis of CHK's investment allure in today's Rude Awakening.

Sugar Me Sweet

Sugar's up big this morning. I can't find any news justifying or even commenting on the reason for the move.

I know funds had been moving some money over to the sugar market, as it is being more heavily weighted on a few commodity indexes.

Regardless, sugar has some room to run. It neared the 20 cent mark a couple of years back, I believe its destined to but through that mark at some point. Even at 12 cents, sugar is quite cheap relative to a barrel of oil (thus the incentive to turn sugar into ethanol is quite high).

Mid-Week Update: Weekly Win Streak in Jeopardy, Dialing Back Leverage

Scary moment this morning as I was down over 10% overnight - never a good thing. Showed me I was using too much leverage. I sold a few contracts to bring the ratio down further (1 Platinum and 1 Rough Rice - both were showing weakness).

I wasn't thrilled about having to sell before the 'system' said to, but better to live to see another day. Previously I had been allowing myself to use 33% of the leverage available - now I can see that's still too much. Going to dial it back to 25% and see how that goes. It's easy to dial back when you're down - I always have difficulty tempering my enthusiasm when everything is going up, up, and up. Currently have the leverage back to 28% - hopefully I can just grow my way down to the 25% mark :)

I went back and looked at weekly returns since I started the new system, and started tracking the weekly marks. A nice run of six straight positive weeks is in jeopardy, as the account sits barely positive on the week. We'll see how it shakes out. It's impossible to be up every week, but I figure if I manage to be up most weeks, with the down week not 'too' down', good things should result.

Easy Ways to Invest in Commodities

I have a lot of new readers lately, and people have been asking me how exactly to get started investing in commodities. Most people have standard brokerage accounts for trading stocks, and most do not have an account that allows them to trade futures. Very few of the major stock trading services offer futures trading.

So here I'm going to share a few ways that you can invest in commodities right from the comfort of your stock brokerage account. So all you need to do is sell your overvalued, sinking US stocks, say a few Hail Mary's, go wash your face, and you'll repent as soon as you return to your keyboard.

By the way, I would love for this to be an open discussion - please reply in the comments section if you have other ideas.

ETF's

Exchange traded funds have boomed over the past few years, and there are now ETF's that track just about anything you can think of. Here are a few ETF's you may find useful:

GLD (streetTRACKS Gold Trust) - tracks (roughly) the spot price of gold.
DBA (PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund) - invests in sugar, wheat, corn, and soybeans (25% each).
DBC (Deutsche Bank Commodities ETF) - full breakdown here.
RJA (Rogers Commodity Index - Agricultural component) - Maybe my favorite from none other than our here, Jim Rogers. Details here.

I've owned only GLD in the past, none currently. I wish I had drank my own Kool Aid earlier on this and put my stock $$$ into some of these (my regular stocks are down 5% for the year in case you're wondering - getting hammered like everyone else).

The trick with these commodity funds and ETF's is that they traditionally have weighted gold and metals heavily. And everyone here knows that we believe agricultural is the place to be. If the US hits a recession, $100 oil could look quite expensive and may drop. But it's hard to see the agricultural items dropping far, if at all - China and India and the rest of the world will continue to eat, after all.

So I'm intending to do some research on these quite soon. Again, comments welcome if you have thoughts. Now onto the next topic:

Stocks

Of course we can buy stocks that are not named Apple and Google as well - we can also pick specific plays on the commodity picture. Here are a few of my favorite themes:

1. Gold producers - When gold goes up, gold producers go up much, much more. Why? Say a gold producer is selling gold at $900/ounce, and it costs $500/ounce to pull it out of the ground. Profit of $400/ounce. Gold jumps to $1200/ounce - increase of 33% (on par with each of the last 5 or so years). Profit is now $800/ounce. So their profit is leveraged with the price of gold - which is why when gold moves higher, share prices skyrocket for gold producers.

My favs: I own NG and AUY currently.

2. Oil service providers - I mentioned before that oil could drop - but it's not going to drop to $30/barrel. If it does, we'll load up on some contracts! But there are many oil exploration activities that are wildly profitable at $90/barrel goo that don't make sense at $30 or $40. Think guys who help locate oil in the ground or deep seas.

My favs: DWSN (owned previously), HAL, BHI

3. Energy producers - The trick here is to find the guys with killer reserves that are also growing. Many of the big producers are struggling for new finds. For some reason I've been able to find Natural Gas producers with more promise - maybe because the US still has some NG left, while we are tapped out of oil.

My favs: APA (own currently), CHK (owned for much of the last 3 years, not currently)

Unchartered Territory for Gold and Silver

With Gold continuing to push higher, now north of $900, here is some commentary from GoldMoney's James Turk.

In short, he argues that we are now in unchartered waters, so all bets are off and they sky's the limit.

Weekly Positions Update - 01/13/08

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Strike	Call/Put	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
01/10/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Australian Dlr			0.8889	0.8863	($260.00)
12/07/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Corn			415	495	$4,000.00
12/14/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Corn			439	495	$2,800.00
01/03/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Corn			468	495	$1,350.00
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Cotton			66.45	66.96	$255.00
01/09/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Cotton			69.61	66.96	($1,325.00)
11/09/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Coffee 'C'			126.05	135.45	$3,525.00
12/26/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Oats			308 3/4	336	$1,362.50
12/21/07	Long	1	APR 08	Platinum			1531.0	1568.0	$1,850.00
12/21/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Rough Rice			13.840	14.575	$1,470.00
12/21/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Rough Rice			13.855	14.575	$1,440.00
01/09/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Rough Rice			14.540	14.575	$70.00
11/28/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Soybeans			1108	1299 1/2	$9,575.00
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Sugar #11			11.10	11.34	$268.80
06/04/07	Long	2	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.05	12.02	$4,412.80
08/01/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.48	12.02	$1,724.80
12/20/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			11.37	12.02	$728.00
10/18/06	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			12.08	12.02	($67.20)
01/02/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Swiss Franc			0.899500	0.9110	$1,437.50
12/27/07	Long	1	FEB 08	Mini Gold			834.5	896.8	$2,068.36
12/21/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Mini Soybeans			1192 1/2	1301	$1,085.00
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:									$37,770.56

Current Cash Balance	$59,303.48
Open Trade Equity	$37,770.56
Total Equity	$97,074.04
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$97,074.04

Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $102,074.04

Weekly return: 12.0%

Economics 101 for Presidential Candidates

A solid understanding of economics is absolutely required in order to be successful in commodity trading. These markets may be the truest of them all in loyalty to the basic laws of economics, which govern all price movements.

It's safe to say that our crackpot team of presidential candidates would probably not fare well in the trading arena. Here's a great piece by John Mauldin, as he breaks down the bogus economic rhetoric being floated by the candidates.

Start Your Engines

Australian Trade Gap Shrinks, Aussie Rallies

Good news out of Australia, and a nice job by Bloomberg comparing the rate situation between Australia and the US. Bottom line is the US is basically already in a recession and rates here are coming lower - Australia is still hot and rates are going higher. That is bullish for the Aussie dollar.

By my count, this is the highest the Aussie's been since late November, marking an entry point for me.

I'm glad to be back with the Aussie dollar, though the weight of the carry trade continues to hang on what should be a bright future. I expect the Aussie to begin a climb towards parity with the US dollar, but it sure won't be a smooth ride.

Decade High Cotton Prices in '08

Prediction from T&K Futures.

Yes granted, they are obviously inclined towards the bullish end. However their fundamental case is spot on.

Brazil Coffee Crop Disappoints

A lack of rain last fall hurt the upcoming coffee crop in Brazil (far and away, the largest producer of coffee). Futures were up big yesterday, and slightly up today as I type.

Worldwide demand is forecast to climb 2.3% this year. Demand outpacing supply - music to our ears.

Cotton Ready to Launch Next?

Nothing we haven't discussed before here, but cotton looks ready to take off in the eyes of Agora's Kevin Kerr.

Strong Aussie Retail Sales

Keep an eye on that Aussie $ - let's see if it can break through the 0.89 mark.

From Chuck Butler in today's Daily Pfennig:
And on that note... Australian Retail Sales gained for a 6th month in November, advancing .8% from October. I'm telling you now, so you can hear me later... The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be raising rates this quarter... And think of what that might do to a currency that already enjoys a big rate differential to the U.S. dollar, while the U.S. dollar's rate goes lower, and lower, and lower...

Pour Some Sugar On Me (One Year High)

Finally - some life coming out of sugar! It hit a one-year high this morning. The cause? Strong biofuel demand, and speculators (readers?) as well.

Is this sugar's run, part 2? Maybe, we'll see how far it goes. I'm convinced it has at least one more run up to 20 cents and higher in it. I will continue to pyramid my positions up on further strength, though not too aggressively, since I own a significant amount already.

Shorts Beware - Bush hauls out the PPT

In case you were under the illusions that the US operated completely free markets, this should set you straight. Article goes on to state what we've talked about - that governments are between a rock and a hard place, and they will opt for inflation instead of hard landings and debt repayments.

Why keep an eye on government actions? They have the ability to move markets, like it or not - so we have to account for the government in our trades.

Right now, here's what I see:

• It's an election year - government will therefore do everything in its power to buoy markets. This includes masking statistics (see yesterday's post on inflation) and keeping asset prices afloat (if inflation is triggered, so be it).
• Rates are coming down further, dollar be damned.
• Don't be surprised to see a socialistic, inflationary housing rescue plan pumped through (as everyone figures out Paulson's plan was pure show.

Of course there is still the risk of deflation, but wait for confirmation before you begin trading on that premise. Right now inflation seems to be taking the day, and what performs best in times of high inflation? You guessed it - gold and basically all commodities. Stocks may appear "flat", as they were in the 70's, but if you account for inflation, you're getting slammed by staying in stocks - especially as pricey as they are now.

The Real Inflation Number

The oft quoted site www.shadowstats.com says it all on the homepage - using pre-Clinton era CPI calculation methods, inflation is running north of 8%. This probably jives a bit better with your own personal observations of food and energy prices.

Suddenly a 5% savings account doesn't seem so great. Add in the depreciating dollar (down 9% last year against a basket of currencies), and you need to be making 20% annually just to stay afloat.

More from John Williams at shadowstats.com - this may come as a shocker, but you can't believe everything the government tells you:

“Politically, it is extremely important for the Bush administration to keep the monthly jobs changes on the plus side, because a down month or two could provide the timing base needed for the National Bureau of Economic Research to call a recession, and such is not wanted in an election year. As with the month before, the reported monthly payroll gain was statistically indistinguishable from a monthly contraction.

“Keep in mind that beyond the standard gimmicks, the Bureau of Labor Statistics simply can report any jobs number it desires. The current message from the reporting seems to be that the administration does not want to show a recession, but it would like Mr. Bernanke to ease further.”

Weekly Positions Update - 01/06/08

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
12/07/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Corn	415	466 3/4	$2,587.50
12/14/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Corn	439	466 3/4	$1,387.50
01/03/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Corn	468	466 3/4	($62.50)
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Cotton	66.45	68.64	$1,095.00
11/09/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Coffee 'C'	126.05	132.00	$2,231.25
12/26/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Oats	308 3/4	329 3/4	$1,050.00
12/21/07	Long	1	APR 08	Platinum	1531.0	1548.0	$850.00
12/21/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Rough Rice	13.840	14.320	$960.00
12/21/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Rough Rice	13.855	14.320	$930.00
11/28/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Soybeans	1108	1263 1/2	$7,775.00
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Sugar #11	11.10	11.31	$235.20
06/04/07	Long	2	JUL 08	Sugar #11	10.05	11.78	$3,875.20
08/01/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11	10.48	11.78	$1,456.00
12/20/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11	11.37	11.78	$459.20
10/18/06	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11	12.08	11.78	($336.00)
01/02/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Swiss Franc	0.899500	0.9081	$1,075.00
12/27/07	Long	1	FEB 08	Mini Gold	834.5	866.1	$1,049.12
12/21/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Mini Soybeans	1192 1/2	1266	$735.00
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:							$27,352.47

Current Cash Balance	$59,345.30
Open Trade Equity	$27,352.47
Total Equity	$86,697.77
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$86,697.77

Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $91,697.77

Weekly return: 15.4%

Weakening Pound Sterling - Will Aussie $ Benefit?

Anyone who's been reading for the few months know what a big fan I am of the Aussie $. Here's another angle why it's due to rise from the Daily Pfennig and Chuck Butler.

You know... A month ago, while I was in Florida on Marco Island speaking at the Wealth Masters Conference, my colleague, Chris Gaffney told everyone that pound sterling had seen better days, and he looked for pound weakness... He was quite bang on, eh? I have to say that I truly believe that the U.K. has similar problems as we do in this country with regards to housing... The one thing they don't share with us is rising inflation! Interest rates will come down in the U.K. this year, and that will end pound sterling's run as a financing currency of the Carry Trade...

So... If pounds get sold on one side of the Carry Trade, investors will be looking for other high yielders, like Aussie dollars... Where interest rates aren't coming down, and in fact could be going higher as we go along in 2008...

Unfortunately the Aussie is struggling to break to the upside - the unwinding of the carry trade continues to slam it down everytime a rally starts. We'll keep an eye on the situation here for good entry points.

On an aside, look for faster Renminbi appreciation this year. I think it was up about 7% against the US dollar last year - but down against many currencies (the US dollar depreciated about 9% last year against a basket of major currencies - yikes!)

The Chinese gov't won't let you buy Renminbi directly, so the best you can do is use a place such as Everbank, which can give you an account that tracks the currency.