Showing posts with label commodities. Show all posts
Showing posts with label commodities. Show all posts
Monday, April 14, 2008
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Weekly Positions Update - 04/13/08
I'm sorry for the lack of posts the past week - it was a really crazy week. I'm involved with a startup and we had a big pitch to give on Thursday, so the week just flew by. I caught up on the commodity news yesterday, and have a few things to post later this evening.
On a personal note, I recently left my job (this is a very good thing) - so for your added entertainment, my futures account will also serve as my sole source of income for the time being, as soon as I run through my relatively meager savings. C'mon grains - Daddy needs a new pair of shoes!!!
Hopefully the added pressure won't mess me up - I realize I need to be a bit more conservative with the leverage, as I really can't afford a large draw down. Of course this would be a great time to get the follow up sugar rally we've all been waiting for :)
Cashed out: $10,000.00
Total value: $111,196.56
Weekly return: 0.2%
YTD return: 42.6%
***BTW, I usually "cash out" money just to pay taxes. So total value is all pre-tax. Going forward, I'll be cashing out to pay the rent also - no slack in the system for hookers and booze, that will have to wait for later in the commodity bull :)
On a personal note, I recently left my job (this is a very good thing) - so for your added entertainment, my futures account will also serve as my sole source of income for the time being, as soon as I run through my relatively meager savings. C'mon grains - Daddy needs a new pair of shoes!!!
Hopefully the added pressure won't mess me up - I realize I need to be a bit more conservative with the leverage, as I really can't afford a large draw down. Of course this would be a great time to get the follow up sugar rally we've all been waiting for :)
| Open Positions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Account Balances | |
| Current Cash Balance | $100,956.56 |
| Open Trade Equity | $240.00 |
| Total Equity | $101,196.56 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $101,196.56 |
Cashed out: $10,000.00
Total value: $111,196.56
Weekly return: 0.2%
YTD return: 42.6%
***BTW, I usually "cash out" money just to pay taxes. So total value is all pre-tax. Going forward, I'll be cashing out to pay the rent also - no slack in the system for hookers and booze, that will have to wait for later in the commodity bull :)
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Weekly Positions Update - 04/06/08
| Open Positions | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Account Balances | |
| Current Cash Balance | $100,987.25 |
| Open Trade Equity | $44.00 |
| Total Equity | $101,031.25 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $101,031.25 |
Cashed out: $10,000.00
Total value: $111,031.25
Weekly return: -1.3%
YTD return: 42.3%
***BTW, I usually "cash out" money just to pay taxes. So total value is all pre-tax.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Weekly Positions Update - 03/30/08
Open Positions
Cashed out: $10,000.00
Total value: $112,361.84
Weekly return: 6.3%
***BTW, I usually "cash out" money just to pay taxes. So total value is all pre-tax.
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Strike | Call/Put | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss |
| 03/24/08 | Long | 1 | MAY 08 | Cotton | 71.87 | 71.70 | ($85.00) | ||
| 03/13/08 | Long | 1 | JUN 08 | Japanese Yen | 0.9992 | 1.0100 | $1,350.00 | ||
| 03/12/08 | Long | 1 | MAY 08 | Rough Rice | 18.980 | 19.675 | $1,390.00 | ||
| 03/13/08 | Long | 1 | MAY 08 | Rough Rice | 19.500 | 19.675 | $350.00 | ||
| 03/25/08 | Long | 1 | MAY 08 | Sugar #11 | 12.15 | 11.69 | ($515.20) | ||
| 03/17/08 | Long | 1 | JUN 08 | Swiss Franc | 1.028000 | 1.0024 | ($3,200.00) | ||
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: | ($710.20) | ||||||||
| Account Balances | |
| Current Cash Balance | $103,072.04 |
| Open Trade Equity | ($710.20) |
| Total Equity | $102,361.84 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $102,361.84 |
Cashed out: $10,000.00
Total value: $112,361.84
Weekly return: 6.3%
***BTW, I usually "cash out" money just to pay taxes. So total value is all pre-tax.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Weekly Positions Update - 03/23/08
Another tough week - I'm not really helping myself with these currency and S&P losses. Trying to cut my positions further until I get back on the winning track.
Open Positions
Cashed out: $10,000.00
Total value: $106,269.24
Weekly return: -11.2%
***BTW, I usually "cash out" money just to pay taxes. So total value is all pre-tax.
Open Positions
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Strike | Call/Put | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss |
| 03/13/08 | Short | 1 | JUN 08 | E-Mini S&P 500 | 1315.75 | 1328.00 | ($612.50) | ||
| 03/13/08 | Long | 1 | JUN 08 | Japanese Yen | 0.9992 | 1.0085 | $1,162.50 | ||
| 03/12/08 | Long | 1 | MAY 08 | Rough Rice | 18.980 | 18.200 | ($1,560.00) | ||
| 03/13/08 | Long | 1 | MAY 08 | Rough Rice | 19.500 | 18.200 | ($2,600.00) | ||
| 03/17/08 | Long | 1 | JUN 08 | Swiss Franc | 1.028000 | 0.9884 | ($4,950.00) | ||
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: | ($8,560.00) | ||||||||
| Account Balances | |
| Current Cash Balance | $104,829.24 |
| Open Trade Equity | ($8,560.00) |
| Total Equity | $96,269.24 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $96,269.24 |
Cashed out: $10,000.00
Total value: $106,269.24
Weekly return: -11.2%
***BTW, I usually "cash out" money just to pay taxes. So total value is all pre-tax.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Back to the Future in Commodities?
Wow - what a crappy week in the commodity markets. The biggest one-week drop in commodities in the last 50 years took place this week - and it wasn't even a full trading week!
I hope everyone is still relatively intact. I am taking some hits myself, but still standing and fortunately still profitable on the year. Thankfully my stops took me out of most markets earlier in the downturn, though, like a drug addict of sorts, I've tried sneaking back in early and have gotten burned accordingly. Stops are something I recently introduced to my strategy - I used to be more of a "buy and hold" guy. I'm really grateful for that, as using my previous strategy, I would have been completely wiped out during this downturn.
Rather than describing the selloff myself, I'll defer to Agora's Dan Denning, who summarized better than I could have in a Rude Awakening article entitled Cold Commodities.
Just for kicks, let's take a look at some of these prices - it almost feels like Back to the Future:
(Please scroll down - not for dramatic effect, but because I couldn't figure out my HTML :))
Two words come to mind - holy crap! These prices - especially the softs - are flat out cheap!
When sugar was cranking up a few months ago, no way did I think we'd ever see it below 12 cents again. And if you were just kicking yourself earlier this year that you had "missed" the big bull run - well you're in luck, opportunity is knocking once again.
I think the question for us now is not if we buy, but when do we buy. I don't have a crystal ball, but pull up one of these charts and take a look - it's not pretty over the past three weeks. I would love to see this selloff continue, proceeded by a nice long bottom, and a slow but steady rise back up. Of course, markets rarely cooperate with what we want :)
Just remember that billions of dollars have been lost trying to catch the exact bottom or exact top. I would be surprised if these prices are not significantly higher in the next 2-5 years (due to fundamental supply/demand issues that I outlined here).
We've got a lot of upside to catch here - so let's dust ourselves off, be grateful for what we have left in our portfolios, and grab the horns for this bull's next leg up.
I hope everyone is still relatively intact. I am taking some hits myself, but still standing and fortunately still profitable on the year. Thankfully my stops took me out of most markets earlier in the downturn, though, like a drug addict of sorts, I've tried sneaking back in early and have gotten burned accordingly. Stops are something I recently introduced to my strategy - I used to be more of a "buy and hold" guy. I'm really grateful for that, as using my previous strategy, I would have been completely wiped out during this downturn.
Rather than describing the selloff myself, I'll defer to Agora's Dan Denning, who summarized better than I could have in a Rude Awakening article entitled Cold Commodities.
Just for kicks, let's take a look at some of these prices - it almost feels like Back to the Future:
(Please scroll down - not for dramatic effect, but because I couldn't figure out my HTML :))
| Commodity | Price |
|---|---|
| Coffee | 130.90 |
| Sugar | 11.89 |
| Cocoa | 2299 |
| Cotton | 71.02 |
| OJ | 113.05 |
| Corn | 507 |
| Soybeans | 1207 |
Two words come to mind - holy crap! These prices - especially the softs - are flat out cheap!
When sugar was cranking up a few months ago, no way did I think we'd ever see it below 12 cents again. And if you were just kicking yourself earlier this year that you had "missed" the big bull run - well you're in luck, opportunity is knocking once again.
I think the question for us now is not if we buy, but when do we buy. I don't have a crystal ball, but pull up one of these charts and take a look - it's not pretty over the past three weeks. I would love to see this selloff continue, proceeded by a nice long bottom, and a slow but steady rise back up. Of course, markets rarely cooperate with what we want :)
Just remember that billions of dollars have been lost trying to catch the exact bottom or exact top. I would be surprised if these prices are not significantly higher in the next 2-5 years (due to fundamental supply/demand issues that I outlined here).
We've got a lot of upside to catch here - so let's dust ourselves off, be grateful for what we have left in our portfolios, and grab the horns for this bull's next leg up.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
More Lumber Research
Regular readers know that we're keeping an eye on developments in the lumber market, which is suffering from its lowest prices in decades. I got the idea from Tom Dyson at DailyWealth, and his follow up article earlier this week inspired me to do some more research on the subject.
If you're also intrigued by this opportunity, here are some other links you may be interested in:
You've seen this script before over the past few years - supply is neglected due to low prices. Then demand picks up, and boom! You've got a jump in prices...and hopefully a big profit if you had the trade!
If you're also intrigued by this opportunity, here are some other links you may be interested in:
- Elliott Wave International - this is really just an intro for an advertisement for their services, but has a few useful points
- Reuters on a recent lumber ruling
- Al.com (that's short for Alabama) - Sawmills whacked by falling lumber prices, little demand
You've seen this script before over the past few years - supply is neglected due to low prices. Then demand picks up, and boom! You've got a jump in prices...and hopefully a big profit if you had the trade!
Friday, January 04, 2008
Weekly Positions Update - 01/06/08
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss |
| 12/07/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Corn | 415 | 466 3/4 | $2,587.50 |
| 12/14/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Corn | 439 | 466 3/4 | $1,387.50 |
| 01/03/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Corn | 468 | 466 3/4 | ($62.50) |
| 12/20/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Cotton | 66.45 | 68.64 | $1,095.00 |
| 11/09/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Coffee 'C' | 126.05 | 132.00 | $2,231.25 |
| 12/26/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Oats | 308 3/4 | 329 3/4 | $1,050.00 |
| 12/21/07 | Long | 1 | APR 08 | Platinum | 1531.0 | 1548.0 | $850.00 |
| 12/21/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Rough Rice | 13.840 | 14.320 | $960.00 |
| 12/21/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Rough Rice | 13.855 | 14.320 | $930.00 |
| 11/28/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Soybeans | 1108 | 1263 1/2 | $7,775.00 |
| 12/20/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Sugar #11 | 11.10 | 11.31 | $235.20 |
| 06/04/07 | Long | 2 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 10.05 | 11.78 | $3,875.20 |
| 08/01/07 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 10.48 | 11.78 | $1,456.00 |
| 12/20/07 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 11.37 | 11.78 | $459.20 |
| 10/18/06 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 12.08 | 11.78 | ($336.00) |
| 01/02/08 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Swiss Franc | 0.899500 | 0.9081 | $1,075.00 |
| 12/27/07 | Long | 1 | FEB 08 | Mini Gold | 834.5 | 866.1 | $1,049.12 |
| 12/21/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Mini Soybeans | 1192 1/2 | 1266 | $735.00 |
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: | $27,352.47 | ||||||
| Current Cash Balance | $59,345.30 |
| Open Trade Equity | $27,352.47 |
| Total Equity | $86,697.77 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $86,697.77 |
Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $91,697.77
Weekly return: 15.4%
Saturday, December 29, 2007
Weekly Positions Update - 12/30/07
Happy New Year's everyone! Last post for the year here - back in '08, ready to first recap '07 and yearly returns since inception in '05, then it's time to figure out the year ahead!
Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $80,140.47
Weekly return: 4.53%
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Strike | Call/Put | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss |
| 12/07/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Corn | 415 | 451 3/4 | $1,837.50 | ||
| 12/14/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Corn | 439 | 451 3/4 | $637.50 | ||
| 12/20/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Cotton | 66.45 | 67.89 | $720.00 | ||
| 11/09/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Coffee 'C' | 126.05 | 133.25 | $2,700.00 | ||
| 12/26/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Oats | 308 3/4 | 303 | ($287.50) | ||
| 12/21/07 | Long | 1 | APR 08 | Platinum | 1531.0 | 1537.1 | $305.00 | ||
| 12/21/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Rough Rice | 13.840 | 13.970 | $260.00 | ||
| 12/21/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Rough Rice | 13.855 | 13.970 | $230.00 | ||
| 11/28/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Soybeans | 1108 | 1223 | $5,750.00 | ||
| 12/20/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Sugar #11 | 11.10 | 10.95 | ($168.00) | ||
| 06/04/07 | Long | 2 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 10.05 | 11.38 | $2,979.20 | ||
| 08/01/07 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 10.48 | 11.38 | $1,008.00 | ||
| 12/20/07 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 11.37 | 11.38 | $11.20 | ||
| 10/18/06 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 12.08 | 11.38 | ($784.00) | ||
| 12/27/07 | Long | 1 | FEB 08 | Mini Gold | 834.5 | 842.6 | $268.92 | ||
| 12/21/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Mini Soybeans | 1192 1/2 | 1223 | $305.00 | ||
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: | $15,772.82 | ||||||||
| Current Cash Balance | $59,367.65 |
| Open Trade Equity | $15,772.82 |
| Total Equity | $75,140.47 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $75,140.47 |
Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $80,140.47
Weekly return: 4.53%
Friday, December 21, 2007
Weekly Positions Update - 12/23/07
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Strike | Call/Put | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss |
| 12/07/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Corn | | | 415 | 443 1/2 | $1,425.00 |
| 12/14/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Corn | | | 439 | 443 1/2 | $225.00 |
| 12/20/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Cotton | | | 66.45 | 66.58 | $65.00 |
| 11/09/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Coffee 'C' | | | 126.05 | 133.85 | $2,925.00 |
| 12/21/07 | Long | 1 | APR 08 | Platinum | | | 1531.0 | 1522.5 | ($425.00) |
| 12/21/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Rough Rice | | | 13.840 | 13.875 | $70.00 |
| 12/21/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Rough Rice | | | 13.855 | 13.875 | $40.00 |
| 11/28/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Soybeans | | | 1108 | 1196 | $4,400.00 |
| 12/20/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Sugar #11 | | | 11.10 | 11.12 | $22.40 |
| 06/04/07 | Long | 2 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | | | 10.05 | 11.45 | $3,136.00 |
| 08/01/07 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | | | 10.48 | 11.45 | $1,086.40 |
| 12/20/07 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | | | 11.37 | 11.45 | $89.60 |
| 10/18/06 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | | | 12.08 | 11.45 | ($705.60) |
| 12/21/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Mini Soybeans | | | 1192 1/2 | 1196 | $35.00 |
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: | $12,388.80 | ||||||||
| Current Cash Balance | $59,490.07 |
| Open Trade Equity | $12,388.80 |
| Total Equity | $71,878.87 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $71,878.87 |
Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $76,878.87
Weekly return: 7.20%
Friday, December 14, 2007
Weekly Positions Update - 12/16/07
Yesterday I pounded through a great read, Winner Take All: A Top Commodity Trader Tells It Like It Is, by William R. Gallacher. I'll gather my thoughts and post what I took away shortly.
Overall on the portfolio side, I'm sure you notice some major changes from about a month ago (when things were running quite reckless and out of control). I am doing my best to reform my old ways - here's how I'm currently approaching things:
Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $72,051.70
Weekly return: 12.75%
Overall on the portfolio side, I'm sure you notice some major changes from about a month ago (when things were running quite reckless and out of control). I am doing my best to reform my old ways - here's how I'm currently approaching things:
- Since we're in a flat out bull market for commodities, I'm buying anything that hits a 20-day high. Anything. Could be crude oil, feeder cattle, or sugar - doesn't matter. Everything goes higher in a bull market, so I'm letting the market sift these out rather than me buying and holding something - which I have been doing.
- If a current position hits a 20-day low, I sell. Again, no questions asked. I'll re-enter the position on a new 20-day high. Easy - automates the exiting process.
- Not have more than 25-30% of the portfolio "at-risk" at any given moment. In other words, if the world went to hell in a handbasket in 0.001 seconds flat, here's what I would lose.
- I'm working on a spreadsheet to calculate this, which I am still tinkering with. I'll share when finished. Basically the idea is that I have trailing stops at the 20-day low of each position. The difference between the current price and the stop (times the amount of leverage) equals how much I can lose on that position.
- The new return goal is 2% per week. If I break this, great. The idea is to try not to lose money in a given week. I figure if I can hit this # approximately, the returns will be great. Helps me to focus on the weekly # rather than trying to triple my portfolio in a year (which is what 2% will do over 52 weeks)
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Strike | Call/Put | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss |
| 12/07/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Corn | 415 | 438 1/4 | $1,162.50 | ||
| 12/14/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Corn | 439 | 438 1/4 | ($37.50) | ||
| 11/09/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Coffee 'C' | 126.05 | 133.80 | $2,906.25 | ||
| 11/28/07 | Long | 1 | JAN 08 | Rough Rice | 13.080 | 13.125 | $90.00 | ||
| 11/28/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Soybeans | 1108 | 1175 | $3,350.00 | ||
| 06/04/07 | Long | 2 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 10.05 | 10.84 | $1,769.60 | ||
| 08/01/07 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 10.48 | 10.84 | $403.20 | ||
| 10/18/06 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 12.08 | 10.84 | ($1,388.80) | ||
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: | $8,255.25 | ||||||||
| Current Cash Balance | $58,796.45 |
| Open Trade Equity | $8,255.25 |
| Total Equity | $67,051.70 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $67,051.70 |
Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $72,051.70
Weekly return: 12.75%
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