Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Wheat Crosses 800 Cents

I feel like a broken record - but this is one helluva ride! Wheat futures crossed the 800 cents mark this morning.
Chart

There are ongoing harvest problems contributing to the situation. Remember that wheat inventories are already at a 26-year low, so there is no slack in the system.

How high can prices go? Honestly I have no idea. I am not a buyer at these prices - things are just too crazy. I'm content to fasten my seatbelt and hang on for the ride.

As commodity investors (as opposed to traders), we need to keep things in perspective. Short term, I'm not sure where prices are heading (though I'd love to hear input from chart readers - Toby, any thoughts?)

I do know that next year, more wheat will be planted than has been planted in awhile. Where will the acreage come from? Corn, soybeans, and cotton. The cheapest crop will probably get shafted the most - and that looks like cotton at the moment.

1 comment:

Toby said...

Tough call Brett. I'd certainly not be selling if I were you. You've got yourself long when all bullish signs are converging. If something like 3 lock limit moves happen back to back....I'd take off one contract.

So, if we are locked up 30 on the Dec contract on Thurs...I'd sell one.

YMMV

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