Jim Rogers: If gold goes down some more, I'll buy some more

Full article, with commentary on Jim Rogers' current takes.

• If base metals continue to consolidate, he plans to buy more
• Rice prices must go much higher to cause supply to rise
• He expects the dollar rally to continue, because everyone is bearish (including him)
• He holds the currencies of commodity producing countries, such as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand
• He's still short US investment banks
  

Rice Resilient

Maybe it's not time to quit on Rice yet!



Sorry - wrong rice :)

Close call for me - I had my stop down at 23.50. I was sure I was going to be stopped out, and am glad I hung on and waited to "take it like a man", rather than just selling around 23.70 (which I thought about).

After watching this market non-stop for the last two months or so, I definitely find today's rally (pleasantly) surprising. Lately rice has been stronger trading in the Asia sessions than the US - so I figured a down night in Asia last night would be the end of the line.

Stay tuned - we'll check back in on this one Sunday evening!

Australian rice farmers switching to growing wine grapes

Another good one from Agora - courtesy of their 5 Minute Forecast (if you couldn't tell, I read this publication religiously):

On the other side of the world, extreme drought and telling profit margins have Australian rice farmers switching to growing wine grapes. Australian rice? Yeah, that’s what we thought, too. But the reduction in rice imports from Australia has helped add pressure to an already strained global market for the little white grains.

A multiyear drought has crushed the Australian rice industry. According to The New York Times this morning, the Aussie rice crop has been decimated… down 98% over the past six years.

As the weather worsens, Australian farmers have taken to growing wine grapes -- not because the grapes command higher selling prices, but because the water required to grow rice is too expensive.

Regardless what you think of their politics, The N.Y. Times makes great charts. We nicked this one for you this morning:

USDA: Food Prices to Rise in 2008

Well...duh.

Full story

Summary:

• US retail prices in 2007 rose about 4% - highest gain in 17 years
• Similar gains expected for 2008
• Reduced production of meat and poultry expected in 2009 (our next investment theme, maybe?)
  

Potash CEO: Record Crops Needed to Avoid Famine

Full stories:

• Theglobeandmail.com
• Bloomberg

Summary:

• Potash CEO William Doyle says grain farmers need to harvest record crops every year to meet demand and avoid famine
• Potash execs are so confident in long term demand that they considered taking the company private in mid-January
• "We need a record crop in 2008 just to stay even with this very low inventory situation," Mr. Doyle said.