Friday, October 31, 2008

Weekly Futures Positions Review - November 2, 2008

Top posts from the past week:

A review of my futures trades from the previous week:

  • No trades last week! Wow, that hasn't happened in a long time. I'd probably be better off if I did this more often.

Other existing positions I've got:
  • Short the British Pound - Last time I shorted the British Pound, it turned out to be a quite profitable trade. The fundamentals of the Pound Sterling are terrible, and I think it's possible we could see the Pound at $1.50 over the next 12 months...or maybe over the next week at this rate.
  • Short a couple of 10-Year Treasuries - Treasuries have performed quite poorly over the last two weeks, and Jim Rogers described them as the "last bubble left". Have they topped? I think they may have - and boy have they got some room to fall if interest rates skyrocket like I think they will. Although trending up since I shorted (what else is new), the chart still looks bearish, with lower highs and lower lows. Some significant potential resistance coming up around 112.

My wish list (waiting for an uptrend...and we could be waiting for awhile):
  • Sugar
  • Cotton
  • Coffee
  • Natural Gas
  • Silver
Open Positions
Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss
10/10/08 Short 1 DEC 08 British Pound 1.6870 1.6045 $5,156.25
10/15/08 Short 1 DEC 08 T-Note (10yr) 111-250 113-035 ($1,328.13)
10/13/08 Short 1 DEC 08 T-Note (10yr) 112-185 113-035 ($531.25)
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: $3,296.88

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance $48,710.90
Open Trade Equity $3,296.88
Total Equity $52,007.78
Long Option Value $0.00
Short Option Value $0.00
Net Liquidating Value $52,007.78

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $72,007.78
Weekly return: 6.0%
YTD return: -6.3%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a time management software startup I'm working on.

Agora Interview with Paul Volcker

Agora Financial just published an interview with former Fed Chairman, "Tall" Paul Volcker which they conducted in sync with the release of their new documentary I.O.U.S.A.

Brief excerpt:

When I became chairman of the Federal Reserve, I think there was a general feeling in this country that economic affairs, and inflation in particular, had reached a kind of crisis point. Things were not going very well. There was a feeling of uncertainty.

There was a lot of speculation in commodities and the gold price, which was then free to fluctuate up to $ 800 an ounce. In an odd kind of way, that’s a good time to step into a job because people thought that something needed to be done. I also think the mood of the country was willing to accept action, which 10 years earlier they wouldn’t have been willing to accept. And once we got caught up and I got caught up – or the Federal Reserve Board got caught up, for that matter the country got caught up – in an anti-inflationary effort, there was a certain willingness to take very high interest rates and eventually a rather severe recession, with the hope and expectations – certainly, the expectation that I had – that things would get better. And if we could restore any sense of stability in the currency, the country would be better off as long as we sustained that phase.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Rick Rule Interview with Porter Stansberry

Rick Rule, if you're not familiar with him, is a legendary metals and mining investor.

I'd highly recommend perusing Porter Stansberry's interview with Rick in today's issue of DailyWealth entitled Insights From the World's Top Commodity Investor.

A quick sound bite from Rick about how he is salivating at the opportunities currently available in the resource markets:

This opportunity we have in front of us right now, this is something that I've trained my whole life for. This is just as good as it gets. I have the reputation. I have the capital. I have the experience.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Bank of Japans Ready to Intervene Against the Yen's Rise

Sean Hyman from World Currency Watch says watch out, the Bank of Japan is not one to be reckoned with. They are ready to intervene to stop the Yen's rise - and you don't want to test them.

And our pal and trusted currency advisor, Chuck Butler at the Daily Pfennig, agrees with Sean in his letter today:

And... While I don't want to spend the whole letter today on Japan... I must say that I think we should all be very wary of the BOJ and their history of intervening to keep yen weak. This will be a huge battle between the Carry Trade unwinders and Uridashi Bond sellers VS the BOJ... Just don't get caught up in it... If it happens, stay to the sidelines, you don't want to get caught up in an intervention battle...


Monday, October 27, 2008

One More Jim Rogers Video - Also Bloomberg - October 24, 2008

One more video from Jim Rogers - quick summary of his thoughts on this one - a very different interview from the previous post:
  • The Japanese Yen will continue to rise - probably higher than anyone thinks it will go
  • When we come out of this forced selling, commodities will be set to take off
  • The secular case for commodities is getting even better
  • Fundamentals are better in commodities. "The world has plenty of stocks"
  • Oil has gone down >50% three or four times since the current bull market started - this correction is nothing unusual

Jim Rogers on Bloomberg: October 24, 2008

A quick summary of Jim Rogers' interview on Bloomberg from 10/24/08 - I just can't get enough of Jimmy (if you couldn't tell):
  • The best place to have your money is (drumroll...) in commodities.
  • Why? Because this credit crunch will drastically hurt the supply of commodities.
  • "Farmers cannot get loans to expand. Nobody's going to give you money to open a zinc mine in the next decade."
  • "If gold goes down, I'll buy more. If it goes up, I'll buy more. Gold's in a bull market. I expect agriculture to do better."
  • "Inventories of food are the lowest they've been in 50 years...we have a shortage of farmers now."
  • "Massive inflation is coming...get out of paper assets."
Video quality here is not great, but audio is fine. He busts out some gold bullion midway through, right out of his pocket, in case you decide to listen rather than watch.

Japanese Stocks Hit 26-Year Low

Japanese stocks have hit their lowest point since 1982, Agora Financial points out with this fine illustration:


Sunday, October 26, 2008

The Skyrocketing US Money Supply - as of October 23, 2008

I pulled this chart straight from the St. Louis Federal Reserve website.

Can you spot the trend?


Sorry the picture came through a bit blurry - you can click the link above for a closer shot - that would be September 2008 where the chart does a hockey stick up to the sky.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Weekly Futures Positions Review - October 26, 2008

Top posts from the past week:

A review of my futures trades from the previous week:

  • Covered my Swiss Franc long - Turns out I didn't want a dollar neutral trade after all. The Swiss Franc kept on dropping, and I got out.

Other existing positions I've got:
  • Short the British Pound - Last time I shorted the British Pound, it turned out to be a quite profitable trade. The fundamentals of the Pound Sterling are terrible, and I think it's possible we could see the Pound at $1.50 over the next 12 months...or maybe over the next week at this rate.
  • Short a couple of 10-Year Treasuries - Treasuries have performed quite poorly over the last two weeks, and Jim Rogers described them as the "last bubble left". Have they topped? I think they may have - and boy have they got some room to fall if interest rates skyrocket like I think they will. Although trending up since I shorted (what else is new), the chart still looks bearish, with lower highs and lower lows.


My wish list (waiting for an uptrend...and we could be waiting for awhile):
  • Sugar
  • Cotton
  • Coffee
  • Natural Gas
  • Silver
Open Positions
Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss
10/10/08 Short 1 DEC 08 British Pound 1.6870 1.5804 $6,662.50
10/15/08 Short 1 DEC 08 T-Note (10yr) 111-250 115-105 ($3,546.88)
10/13/08 Short 1 DEC 08 T-Note (10yr) 112-185 115-105 ($2,750.00)
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: $365.63

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance $48,710.90
Open Trade Equity $365.63
Total Equity $49,076.53
Long Option Value $0.00
Short Option Value $0.00
Net Liquidating Value $49,076.53

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $69,076.53
Weekly return: 0.5%
YTD return: -10.4%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a time management software startup I'm working on.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Commodity Research Bureau: Foods and Softs Outlook

Remember when the grains and softs were doing moonshots, and every other column here was about bullish news for food prices? Seems like just yesterday I was imploring a much smaller readership base to sugar me sweet.

While my favorite soft commodities (sugar, coffee, cotton) remain parked on my wish list as we wait for an uptrend, here's a free outlook on cotton, coffee, sugar, cocoa, and OJ from the Commodity Research Bureau.

Looks like sugar production is still outpacing sugar consumption - but what the heck, let's see if we can channel the great sugar bull together:

Jim Rogers on CNBC: October 22, 2008

Jim Rogers lays the smack down on some CNBC poindexters.

I really enjoy these types of nitwit commentators getting toasted by Jim - it reminds me of late 80's wrestling, where they'd trot our some no name guy on Saturday afternoon WWF Superstars to get destroyed by the Ultimate Warrior in 15 seconds.

Check out the 5:40 mark for the really good stuff.

Quick hits from Jim:
  • This is not deflation. Stocks are going down, and there is forced selling in commodities. He believes this is temporary.
  • He's of the view that "the world is going to recover someday, and with all the money that is being created, history has shown this has always lead to inflation."
  • The current environment is fundamentally different from 1929. The Great Depression was a result of a lack of bank liquidity. The current crisis is the result of bad bank decisions - and right now, the bad banks are being propped up.


Ron Paul on Fox Business

Ron Paul hits the ball out of the park in his commentary on the bank bailouts and our handling of the economic downturn:

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

New GoldMoney Commentary: Gold's New Highs vs Most Currencies

James Turk's latest GoldMoney commentary is now available on his website.

Check out the charts of gold vs. other currencies - it really took me aback. As down as we all are on golds recent performance, it's important to realize that gold's performance is disappointing in US dollar terms. It is holding up relatively well in comparison with other currencies.

The US dollar is on an absolute tear right now, as we discussed this morning. It could go on longer than we all think - for me, it already has.

But all of the cash that has recently been added into the system is going to show up somewhere, someplace. Deflation rules the current day - but once the velocity of money picks up again, we could see a very rapid switch into hyperinflation.

Why the Yen and Dollar are Rallying

Here's the best explanation I've read yet - courtesy of Everbank's Chris Gaffney - in today's Daily Pfennig:

These investors had to sell some of their higher yielding assets to make up for the losses, and a move toward deleveraging started to emerge. As these first investors sold these assets, their price dropped, forcing still others to sell. The credit crisis, and the lockup of the credit markets was a final straw in the leveraged carry trades. Even investors who wanted to stay in the trades could no longer get the loans to keep these trades alive. They were forced to deleverage, selling their investments to pay back the loans.

So the benefactors of this deleveraging of the financial system? The Japanese yen and the US$, currencies which were used to funds these carry trades. The US and Japan have some of the worlds largest banks, and extremely low interest rates making them the perfect funding currencies for the carry trades. As the deleveraging has occurred, investors have purchased back these currencies to pay back loans.

Read the rest of Chris' excellent explanation here.

Monday, October 20, 2008

DailyWealth: Once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity in gold stocks

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes in today's Daily Wealth that we may have a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity in gold stocks. He believes - as many readers here do - that we're due for an incredible rise.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

The Case for Shorting Long Dated US Treasuries Right Now

Editors note: Further discussion of this topic and article can be found on SeekingAlpha.com.

I believe that long dated US treasuries are one of the worst investment options available right now. Should we short them? Let's examine the evidence:


Exhibit A: US government debt continues to baloon

I wondered last month why the rest of the world will continue to lend money to the US at 3%+ percent, while our government spends money like drunken sailors. Someone on Seeking Alpha even hilariously asked me what drunken sailors have ever done to me to earn such an insult.

Basic lending 101 dictates that the higher risk of defaulting the prospective debtor appears to have to the creditor, the higher the interest rate the creditor will demand. And right now, our government is behaving like a banana republic government.


Exhibit B: Long term interest rates are below the current rate of inflation

The 10-Year Treasury is currently yielding 3.936%. Official CPI calculations are running around 5%, and in reality probably higher than that. According to John Williams of Shadow Stats, using the pre-Clinton era method of calculating the CPI, inflation is north of 8%.

What kind of investor commits to a long term investment that is guaranteed to lose money?


Exhibit C: Tom Dyson - The global asset liquidation may soon spill over into Treasuries


Tom writes in the October 17th edition of Daily Wealth: "My concern is, if this credit crisis gets worse, it's going to trigger even bigger whales to liquidate their Treasury bond holdings... whales like the Chinese, the Japanese, or the oil exporters."


Exhibit D: Jim Rogers is short treasuries

It's tough to argue with Jim Rogers. Here he is on Bloomberg on September 10, 2008 - he mentions his short US Treasury position at the 9-minute mark.


Exhibit E: Doug Casey also thinks interest rates are going to the moon

Here's a clip of Doug on Fox Business back on August 14 (mentioning interest rates at the 2-minute mark).


Exhibit F: The US government must print money as fast as it can

Somebody has to pay for all of these stimulus/bailout/rescue packages - and there are only two ways our government can raise the money needed to cover these:
  1. Raise taxes
  2. Print money
I think we'll see a bit of both, but raising taxes will be challenging in this bleak economic climate. I believe the printing presses are already humming quite loudly.


Exhibit G: Treasuries have started a downtrend over the past two weeks


This is especially telling because, based on the action of the equity markets, you would have expected to see investors piling into US Treasuries over the last two weeks. Instead, they behaved quite poorly in the context of the broader economic picture.

It appears that a downtrend in 10-Year Treasuries has begun.


Conclusion:
I believe long-dated US treasuries are ripe to be shorted. I have begun to build up a full short position via the futures markets, and intend to increase this position over time as interest rates rise.

I would recommend readers avoid financial positions that may be vulnerable to rising interest rates.

Ironically, this may in fact be an argument for diving back into the real estate market before it bottoms. A long-term mortgage locked in around 6% will be quite desirable if interest rates spike to their highs from the early 80's.

Aggressive investors can look to profit from rising interest rates by shorting long-dates Treasury or Eurodollar positions via the futures markets. Alternatively, there are several ETFs that inversely track interest rates - DXKSX is the one I own in my Scottrade account, because it provides 2.5x leverage.

Additional Resources:

Weekly Futures Positions Review - October 19, 2008

Top posts from the past week:

A review of my futures trades from the previous week:

  • Went long the Swiss Franc - As I mentioned last week, I wanted find a match for my short British pound position. And the Swiss Franc is my favorite European currency. I don't want to short the British pound outright, because then I'm essentially long the US dollar. This gives me a trade that is dollar neutral. And hey, if Jim Rogers is buying Swiss Francs, I figure I should be also.
  • Shorted a couple of 10-Year Treasuries - Treasuries have performed quite poorly over the last two weeks, and Jim Rogers described them as the "last bubble left". Have they topped? I think they may have - and boy have they got some room to fall if interest rates skyrocket like I think they will.

Other existing positions I've got:
  • Short the British Pound - Last time I shorted the British Pound, it turned out to be a quite profitable trade. The fundamentals of the Pound Sterling are terrible, and I think it's possible we could see the Pound at $1.50 over the next 12 months.

My wish list (waiting for an uptrend...and we could be waiting for awhile):
  • Sugar
  • Cotton
  • Coffee
  • Natural Gas
  • Silver

Open Positions
Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss
10/10/08 Short 1 DEC 08 British Pound 1.6870 1.7266 ($2,475.00)
10/13/08 Long 1 DEC 08 Swiss Franc 0.888800 0.8813 ($937.50)
10/15/08 Short 1 DEC 08 T-Note (10yr) 111-250 112-020 ($281.25)
10/13/08 Short 1 DEC 08 T-Note (10yr) 112-185 112-020 $515.63
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: ($3,178.13)

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance $52,009.45
Open Trade Equity ($3,178.13)
Total Equity $48,831.33
Long Option Value $0.00
Short Option Value $0.00
Net Liquidating Value $48,831.33

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $68,831.33

Weekly return: -3.2%
YTD return: -10.7%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a time management software startup I'm working on.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Warren Buffett: I'm Buying US Stocks Now

Staying on our "guys who got this trend right" theme - Warren Buffett has been standing on the sidelines holding a war chest of cash over the past few years.

Buffett writes in a New York Times op-ed that he is now deploying his cash hoard into US stocks.

"Fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense," wrote Buffett. "Most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now."

"Bad news is an investor's best friend," Buffett said. "It lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price."

Buffett joins Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban in the "going long" stocks club.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Marc Faber on CNBC - October 14, 2008

In these crazy times for the market, I'm turning my attention to the few prognosticators that have nailed the story so far.

Marc Faber has certainly had some impressive calls recently. On July 10th, he predicted that deflation will rule the day in the short term. And as far back as March 29th, he voiced concern that massive deleveraging could drive down asset prices across the board.

I've posted the latest video of Marc Faber on CNBC yesterday (October 14, 2008). Faber currently believes:
  • Downside to the US dollar is limited from this point

  • Resource related currencies (Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar) both have room to move up from here, but he believes we have seen their highs

  • Does not like gold exploration stocks - because exploration is difficult, and because they rely heavily on outside capital

  • Prefers physical gold

  • Likes commodities in the long run

  • Says the best thing to do right now is to "take a holiday"

  • Be careful about getting suckered into stock market rallies - in late 1929, the market bottomed out and rallied 50% going into the summer of 1930...only to collapse another 90% from there!

Part I



Part II



Part III


LinkedIn Poll Respondents: Quite bullish

I took this screen shot yesterday - respondents to a very informal LinkedIn poll appear to be quite bullish on the "market" - I'm assuming this refers to the US stock market.

Man, I should have posted it then, and we all could have used this as a contrarian indicator, shorted the S&P futures, and made a boatload of money. My bad.


Picture quality not so good on the upload - here's the breakdown:
  • 6% - Get out of the market
  • 46% - Buy beaten down stocks
  • 41% - Do nothing, wait it out
  • 5% - I do not know
87% are neutral to bullish!

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Rod Underhill: I expect more startups created because of Wall St turmoil

Rod Underhill, startup legend, co-founder of MP3.com, and, I'm very proud to say, strategic advisor and legal counsel to Chrometa, writes on his new blog that he expects to see a greater # of startups created during the current economic downturn:

However, I am expecting to see an even greater number of start ups to be created, despite the trouble on Wall Street, and really, because of the trouble on Wall Street.

A lot of people are losing their jobs right now. Many of the people who lose their jobs will find themselves feeling all "entrepreneurial" and create their own start ups. They may find it more difficult than normal to seek out venture capital funds, but they will fund themselves first with money from friends and family and angel investors still appear to be a good avenue for investment funds for early stage companies.

Always important to remember that just as bust follows boom, boom also follows bust - that's just how it's always been throughout history.

For the rest of this article, and more thoughts from Rod's unique mind and perspective, check out his blog here.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Stratfor: States, Economies and Markets: Redefining the Rules

Stratfor is an intelligence and news service that provides very high quality coverage and analysis of global events. They cover events that really matter in the big picture - not the crap you see in the mainstream news.

I'm a satisfied subscriber, and was pleased to see this latest piece of analysis could be republished with attribution to www.stratfor.com. So there's my plug for them - check them out - I believe they now offer up some quality free content as well.

States, Economies and Markets: Redefining the Rules


Graphic for Geopolitical Intelligence Report

By George Friedman

A complex sequence of meetings addressing the international financial crisis took place this weekend. The weekend began with meetings among the finance ministers of the G-7 leading industrialized nations. It was followed by a meeting of finance ministers from the G-20, the group of industrial and emerging powers that together constitute 90 percent of the world’s economy. There were also meetings with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. The meetings concluded on Sunday with a summit of the eurozone, those European Union countries that use the euro as their currency. Along with these meetings, there were endless bilateral meetings far too numerous to catalog.

The weekend was essentially about this: the global political system is seeking to utilize the assets of the global economy (by taxing or printing money) in order to take control of the global financial system. The premise is that the chaos in the financial system is such that the markets cannot correct the situation themselves, and certainly not in an acceptable period of time; and that if the situation were to go on, the net result would be not just financial chaos but potentially economic disaster. Therefore, governments decided to use the resources of the economy to solve the problem. Put somewhat more simply, the various governments of the world were going to nationalize portions of the global financial system in order to stave off disaster. The assumption was that the resources of the economy, mobilized by the state, could manage — and ultimately repair — the imbalances of the financial system.

That is the simple version of what is going on in the United States and Europe — and it is only the United States and Europe that really matter right now. Japan and China — while involved in the talks — are really in different places structurally. The United States and Europe face liquidity issues, but the Asian economies are a different beast, predicated upon the concept of a flood of liquidity at all times. Damage to them will be from reduced export demand, and that will take a few weeks or months to manifest in a damning way. It will happen, but for now the crisis is a Euro-American issue.

The actual version of what happened this weekend in the financial talks is, of course, somewhat more complex. The United States and the Europeans agreed that something dramatic had to be done, but could not agree on precisely what they were going to do. The problem both are trying to solve is not technically a liquidity problem, in the sense of a lack of money in the system — the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and their smaller cousins have been pumping money into the system for weeks. Rather, the problem has been the reluctance of financial institutions to lend, particularly to other financial institutions. The money is there, it is just not getting to borrowers. Until that situation is rectified, economic growth is pretty much impossible. Indeed, economic contraction is inevitable.

After the failures of so many financial institutions, many unexpected or seemingly so, financial institutions with cash were loath to lend money out of fear that invisible balance-sheet problems would suddenly destroy their borrowers, leaving lenders with worthless paper. All lending is driven by some appetite for risk, but the level of distrust — certainly after many were trapped in the Lehman Brothers meltdown — has meant that there is no appetite for risk whatsoever.

There is an interesting subtext to this discussion. Accounting rules have required that assets be “marked to market,” that is, evaluated according to their current market value — which in the current environment is not very generous, to say the least. Many want to abolish “mark to market” valuation and replace it with something based on the underlying value of the asset, which would be more generous. The problem with this theory is that, while it might create healthier balance sheets, financial institutions don’t trust anyone’s balance sheet at the moment. Revaluing assets on paper will not comfort anyone. Trust is in very short supply, and there are no bookkeeping tricks to get people to lend to borrowers they don’t trust. No one is going to say once the balance sheet is revalued, “well, you sure are better off than yesterday, here is a hundred million dollars.”

The question therefore is how to get financial institutions to trust each other again when they feel they have no reason to do so. The solution is to have someone trustworthy guarantee the loan. The eurozone solution announced Oct. 12 was straightforward. They intended to have governments directly guarantee loans between financial institutions. Given the sovereign power to tax and to print money, the assumption was — reasonable in our mind — that it would take risk out of lending, and motivate financial institutions to make loans.

The problem with this, of course, is that there are a lot of institutions who will want to borrow a lot of money. With the government guaranteeing the loans, financial institutions will be insensitive to the risk of the borrower. If there is no risk in the loan whatsoever, then banks will lend to anyone, knowing full well that they cannot lose a loan. Under these circumstances, the market would go completely haywire and the opportunities for corruption would be unprecedented.

Therefore, as part of the eurozone plan, there has to be a government process for the approval and disapproval of loans. Since the market is no longer functioning, the decision on who gets to borrow how much at what rate — with a government guarantee — becomes a government decision.

There are two problems with this. First, governments are terrible at allocating capital. Politics will rapidly intrude to shape decisions. Even if the government could be trusted to make every decision with maximum efficiency, no government has the administrative ability to manage the entire financial sector so directly. Second, having taken control of interbank finance, how do you maintain a free market in the rest of the financial system? Will the government jump into guaranteeing non-interbank loans to ensure that banks actually lend money to those who need it? Otherwise the banking system could be liquid, but the rest of the economy might remain in crisis. Once the foundation of the financial system is nationalized, the entire edifice rests on the nationalized system.

The prime virtue of this plan is that it ought to work, at least in the short run. Financial institutions should start lending to each other, at whatever rate and in whatever amounts the government dictates and the gridlock should dissolve. The government will have to dive in to regulate the system for a while but hopefully — and this is the bet — in due course the government can unwind its involvement and ease the system back to some sort of market. The tentative date for that unwinding is the end of 2009. The risk is that the distortions of the system could become so intense after a few months that unwinding would become impossible. But that is a problem for later; the crisis needs to be addressed now.

The United States seems to dislike the eurozone approach, at least for the moment. It will be interesting to see if Washington stays with this position. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who appears to be making the decisions for the United States, did not want to obliterate the market completely, preferring a more indirect approach that would leave the essence of the financial markets intact.

Paulson’s approach was threefold. First, Washington would provide indirect aid to the interbank market by buying distressed mortgage-related assets from financial institutions; this would free up the lenders’ assets in a way that also provided cash, and would reduce their fears of hidden nightmares in each others’ balance sheets. Second, it would allow the Treasury to buy a limited stake in financial institutions that would be healthy if not for the fact that their assets are currently undervalued by the market; the idea being that the government takes a temporary share, in exchange for cash that will recapitalize the bank and reduce its need for access to the interbank market. Finally — and this emerged at 2 a.m. on Monday — the government would jump into the interbank market directly. The Federal Reserve promised to lend any amount of dollars to any bank so long as the borrower has some collateral that the Fed will accept (and these days the Fed accepts just about anything). The major central banks of Europe have already agreed to act as the Fed’s proxies in this regard.

The United States did not want to wind up in the position of micromanaging transactions between financial institutions. Washington felt that an intrusive but still indirect approach would keep the market functioning even as the government intervened. The Europeans feared that the indirect approach wouldn’t work fast enough and had too much risk attached to it (although the Fed’s 2 a.m. decision may take the air out of that belief). They also believed Washington’s attempt to preserve the market was an illusion. With the government buying distressed paper and investing in banks, they felt, what was left of the market wasn’t worth the risk or the time.

There is also an ideological dimension. The United States is committed to free-market economics as a cultural matter. Recent events have shown, if a demonstration was needed, that reality trumps ideology, but Paulson still retains a visceral commitment to the market for its own sake. The Europeans don’t. For them, the state is the center of society, not the market. Thus, the Europeans were ready to abandon the market much faster than the Americans.

Yet the Europeans and the Americans both had to intervene in some way, and now they face exactly the same problem: having decided to make the pig fly, there remains the small matter of how to build a flying pig. The problem is administrative. It is all very well to say that the government will buy paper or stock in companies, or that it will guarantee loans between banks. The problem is that no institutions exist to do this. There are no offices filled with officials empowered to do any of these things, no rules on how these things are to be done, no bank accounts on which to draw — not even a decision on who has to sign the checks. The faster they try to set up these institutions, the more inefficient, error-prone and even corrupt they will turn out to be. We can assure you that some bright lads are already thinking dreamily of ways to scam the system, and the faster it is set up, the fewer controls there will be.

But even if all of that is thrown aside, and it is determined that failure, error and corruption are an acceptable price to pay to avoid economic crisis, it will still take weeks to set up either plan (with the possible exception of the Fed’s announcement to jump into the interbank market directly). Some symbolic transactions can take place within days — and they will undoubtedly be important. But the infrastructure for processing tens of thousands of transactions simply takes time to build.

This, of course, is known to the eurozone finance ministers. Indeed, the Europeans will hold an EU-wide summit on the topic this week, while the Americans are going to be working very hard to clarify their own processes in the next few days. The financial institutions will need to have guarantees to start lending — or some sort of retroactive guarantee — but the bet is that the stock markets will stop falling long enough to give the finance ministries time to get organized. It might work.

We need to add to this another dimension we find very interesting. We have discussed elsewhere the axes on which this decision will be made: one is the degree of government intervention, the other is the degree of international collaboration. Clearly, governments are going to play the pivotal role. What is interesting is the degree to which genuine international collaboration is missing. Certainly there is voluntary collaboration — but there is not an integrated global strategy, there is not an integrated global institution administering the strategy, nor is there an irrevocable commitment on the part of governments to subordinate their sovereignty to relevant global institutions.

The Americans and Europeans seem to be diverging in their approaches, with Paulson delivering a warning about the consequences of protectionism. But the European Union is also now being split between members of the eurozone and EU members who have their own currencies (primarily the United Kingdom). Indeed, even within the eurozone, the solutions will be national. Germany, France, Italy and the rest are all pursuing their own bailouts of their own institutions. They have pledged to operate on certain principles and to coordinate — as have the United States and Europe — but the fact is that each state is going to execute a national policy through national institutions with its own money and bureaucracies.

What is most interesting in the long run is the fact the Europeans, even in the eurozone, have not attempted a European solution. Nationalism is very much alive in Europe and has emerged, as one would expect, in a time of crisis. And this raises a crucial question. Some countries have greater exposure and fewer resources than others. Will the stronger members of the eurozone help the weaker? At present it seems any such help would be simply coincidental. This is a global question as well. The Europeans have pointed out that the contagion started in the United States. It is true that the Americans sold the paper. But it is also true that the Europeans bought it readily. If ever there was a systemic failure it was this one.

However, it has always been our view that the state ultimately trumps the economy and the nation trumps multinational institutions. We are strong believers in the durability of the nation-state. It seems to us that we are seeing here the failure of multinational institutions and the re-emergence of national power. The IMF, the World Bank, the Bank for International Settlements, the European Union and the rest have all failed to function either to prevent the crisis or to contain it. The reason is not their inadequacy. Rather it is that, when push comes to shove, nation-states are not prepared to surrender their sovereignty to multinational entities or to other countries if they don’t have to. What we saw this weekend was the devolution of power to the state. All the summits notwithstanding, Berlin, Rome, Paris and London are looking out for the Germans, Italians, French and British. Globalism and the idea of “Europe” became a lot less applicable to the real world this weekend.

It is difficult to say that this weekend became a defining moment, simply because there is so much left unknown and undone. Above all it is unclear whether the equity markets will give governments the time they need to organize the nationalization (temporary we assume) of the financial system. No matter what happens this week, we simply don’t yet know the answer. The markets have not fallen enough yet to pose an overwhelming danger to the system, but at the moment, that is the biggest threat. If the governments do not have enough credibility to cause the market to believe that a solution is at hand, the government will either have to throw in the towel or begin thinking even more radically. And things have already gotten pretty radical.

This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with attribution to www.stratfor.com




Sunday, October 12, 2008

My Current Commodity Futures Positions - 10/12/08

Top posts from the past week:

A review of my trades from the week that was:

  • Closed out my Japanese Yen position - Closed out on the Monday spike up. The Yen went a bit higher during the week, all the way to the 98 handle - looks like it's trading down in the Asian markets right now, slightly above "parity".
  • Went long another Mini-Gold contract, and got stopped out of both contracts on Friday.
  • Ditto for silver - went long a Mini contract on Thursday, got stopped out (and lost my shirt) on Friday. Maybe I need to chill on gold/silver for right now - I keep waiting for both to explode, but maybe they won't do so until all of this extra cash is really flowing through the system.

Other existing positions I've got:
  • Short the British Pound - Just initiated this position on Thursday - maybe I shouldn't have. We'll see. Maybe I should pair up this trade with the Swiss Franc. Long the Swissie, short the BP - I like the sound of that. I'm scared to be long or short the dollar right now - it's too crazy.

My wish list (waiting for an uptrend...and we could be waiting for awhile):
  • Sugar
  • Cotton
  • Coffee
  • Natural Gas
  • Silver
Also waiting for a downtrend in long term US Treasuries - we might have that soon.

Open Positions
Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss
10/10/08 Short 1 DEC 08 British Pound 1.6870 1.7123 ($1,581.25)
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: ($1,581.25)

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance $52,042.60
Open Trade Equity ($1,581.25)
Total Equity $50,461.35
Long Option Value $0.00
Short Option Value $0.00
Net Liquidating Value $50,461.35

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $70,461.35

Weekly return: -4.4%
YTD return: -8.4%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a time management software startup I'm working on.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Latest GoldMoney Review: We Are in the Sixth Inning

The latest market review and commentary from James Turk at GoldMoney.

Turk makes an interesting point that the Great Depression was deflationary because the dollar was linked to gold - the government couldn't run the printing presses.

This time, we know the dollar is not linked to gold - is that a helicopter I hear?

Friday, October 10, 2008

Jim Rogers on Bloomberg: October 10, 2008

Another Jim Rogers interview. He's all fired up today, fantastic form.



Jim Rogers on CNBC: October 10, 2008

Our buddy Jim Rogers has been picking up:
  • More Japanese Yen
  • More Swiss Francs
  • More agricultural products
He thinks commodities, the Japanese Yen, and the Swiss Franc are the only things that will come out of the crisis unimpaired.

Sequoia Capital: Prepare for Hard Times

Sequoia Capital, one of the premier venture capital firms in Silicon Valley, gathered up its startup CEO's and gave the following presentation. The message: buckle down and tighten up your belts, the good times are over...for awhile.

Some great macroeconomic stats in here.

Mark Cuban: I'm Going Long Stocks

Mark Cuban, who you may be most familiar with as owner of the Dallas Mavericks, is a very savvy entrepreneur and investor. Sometimes he's unfairly labeled as a guy who got lucky and sold at the top of the internet bubble - I don't think that's true, the guy has an impressive track record of successes in business.

In his blog today, he says he's going long stocks, as he sees some good values out there.

It feels like just last week I advised readers to continue steering clear of stocks - hmmmm, maybe because it was last week. And earlier this week, too.

Well my stance is starting to soften - with each steep drop, investing in stocks becomes safer, not more dangerous. The most dangerous time to be invested in stocks was a few weeks or month ago - at much higher levels, when a downtrend was firmly in place.

Does this mean I advocate jumping back into stocks right away? Not at all. You're going to have plenty of time to pick up some great values, but don't be in a hurry to jump in and catch the proverbial falling knife.

Remember, this bear market started in 2000 - only 8 years ago. Bear markets in stocks usually last twice as long as this, if history is any guide (which it usually is).

Personally I am salivating over the slaughter in commodity prices across the board. When the global economy picks up again - it will, it may take time, but it will - we're going to have some fantastic buying opportunities here.

Oil below $80! Cotton below $.50! Sugar below $.12! Oh my!

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

ATM Limits Down to $100 - Do the Banks Actually Have Any Cash?

A couple of weeks ago, an investment writer I respect a great deal wrote that he recommended everyone take out some cash from the bank and keep it on hand - enough for a month or two of living expenses.

Since then, I've heard this mantra repeated in several other financial publications. Extended bank "holidays" have not happened since the 1930's, to my knowledge - but enough smart people are now sufficiently scared that I am, well, sufficiently scared myself.

Now let me be clear, I have almost no money in my savings or checking accounts - I haven't pulled a salary since I left my job in March. And self-funding our early stage software startup has not exactly been conducive to building up a cash hoard.

Anyway, I voiced my concerns to my wife (yes, the same wife who had previously yelled at me to stop trading the Yen) and voiced my concerns.

---------------------------------------------
Me: "Hey Honey - we should have some cash on hand. If this financial crisis gets much worse, they could declare bank holidays and lock up cash. Because the banks don't really have any cash."


Wife: "Really?"

Me: "It could happen."

Wife: "But WE don't have any cash in the BANK either. Because I have to pay for everything now, and...I don't even know where you're getting your money from. I don't want to know. In fact, I can't read your blog anymore, it makes me cringe - our friends think its funny, but it's not as funny when your own life savings depends on the Yen or Soybeans."

Me: "Your hair looks great today."

---------------------------------------------

So, with ~$16K of credit card debt, no income, and no cash in the bank, I realized I'm in quite the pickle! Not exactly prepared for a financial system meltdown myself!

Well a gift from the Gods dropped into my mailbox yesterday:


Yes, an offer from my only credit card without any juice running, that they're offering 3.99% APR on any:
  • Balance transfer, or
  • Cash advance
I had to reread this offer a few times, and splash some cold water on my face. Who in their right mind would lend money at 3.99% - with inflation running at a much higher rate - and lend in US dollars no less, a currency on the verge of collapse?

Well I wasn't arguing - I wrote myself a check for $9K, my new credit limit, and sprinted to the bank! Take the money and run!

Well after depositing my new fat check, I hit the old "another transaction button", with the goal of taking out $500 or so to stuff under my mattress.

And much to my chagrin, I was only allowed to take out $100 at a time! (This is Wells Fargo, if you're keeping score at home). Then I had to withdraw my card, reinsert it, in order to take out another $100. Rinse and repeat. No longer an option to select or key in a withdrawal over $100!

It seems as if the US no longer has any physical cash, or physical gold. Barter, here we come. Sugar, anyone?


We got the last $1,000 in the whole town!

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

AuEx Ventures: An Intriguing Gold Junior Opportunity

Tuesday night, our Sacramento-based Casey Research investment group had the privilege of hosting Ron Parratt, CEO of AuEx Ventures, for a presentation and discussion about his company, and the challenge and adventure that is junior gold exploration.

First a quick primer on junior gold exploration for those not familiar with this field. Unlike gold majors, who have actual gold reserves to pull out of the ground, juniors have not yet found any gold. An investment in a junior is, in overly simple terms, essentially a bet that they will find gold before they run out of capital, and/or over dilute their shareholder base.

With that said, why would somebody want to invest in a junior, when they could just invest in one of the big gold producers and have a much safer investment?

Primarily because the upside potential is so tantalizing. The share price of a junior can do a moon shot if things go well - on the flip side of the coin, though, share prices are also very vulnerable to the downside. Ask anyone who has been invested in the juniors this year (your author included) - it has not been a fun ride so far this year.

Personally, I see three attractive aspects of investing in juniors:
  1. The majors have been under-investing in exploration for decades, as a result of the gold bear market from 1980-2000. Even today, with the price of gold nearly tripled off its lows from earlier this decade, mining input costs are also way up, so the major gold producers are not making as much money as you would have imagined with gold at these prices. How are majors going to replenish their gold reserves? Probably by buying promising juniors.
  2. I would rather bet on a talented entrepreneur and geologist - like Ron Parratt - finding something substantial, than a large bureaucratic company. I believe that talented, motivated people can accomplish amazing things when given room to operate freely.
  3. If you can find a junior led by someone you trust and believe in, that's very powerful.
Now back to Ron and AuEx.

Ron is a very experienced explorer with exceptional qualifications. In 2003, he ventured on his own and co-founded AuEx Ventures, based out of Reno, NV. AuEx employs a joint venture model to exploration, where they will team up with a gold major on a given project, which allows AuEx to leverage their expenditures and minimize share dilution.

That is, their partner will pick-up a significant amount of the investment tab, in exchange for a share of the projects profits. This kind of leverage allows AuEx to have it's hand in many more projects than it could handle by itself.

Similar to the way an investor in gold juniors will keep a very diversified portfolio - with the idea being most will fail, but the few winners will carry the day for you - Ron takes the same approach with AuEx.

The JV approach in their own words:

At AuEx we believe that the joint venture business model is the most effective approach to the conduct of business in the mineral exploration industry. AuEx adopted the JV model because we are committed to minimizing risk by leveraging out that risk to select partners. Significant bi-products of the JV process include; (a) the protection of the corporate vehicle through minimal share dilution, (b) diversification of the Company's exploration programs, (c) annexation of partners' technical strengths and knowledge base and (d) the attraction of additional resources to multiply AuEx's exploration efforts.

I asked Ron what his general strategy towards JV's was, and he said basically they try to keep as much of the project as they can, which giving up as little as they can.

A quick, important aside about Ron: he comes across as an extremely honest, hard-working, talented guy who is great at what he does. Exactly the type of CEO you want to invest in. He owns a healthy equity stake, and is focused on constantly creating shareholder value - and you can't argue with his track record there (side note: he mentioned his initial friends/family round was issued ~$0.12/share - those folks are sitting pretty now).



Ron, a pretty even keel guy, really beams with excitement when talking about AuEx's Long Canyon project, which is looking very, very good. The bulk of the company's value is contained in Long Canyon, and good progress continues there.

AuEx's share price has taken a hit since topping the $3 mark earlier in 2008. According to Ron, business fundamentals are better now than when the share price peaked back in January.

All in all, I have the feeling that the recent pullback in AuEx's share price presents a great opportunity to invest in a world-class explorer like Ron. I don't own any shares yet, but plan to pick some up later this week. I'd encourage you to consider AuEx as a worthy addition to your mining portfolio.

Editor's Note: This article was also published by Seeking Alpha.

Are We Due For a Short Term Pop in Equities?

Many people smarter than I think that, indeed, a short term contrarian play of going long stocks could be a profitable one.
  • Jeff Clark writes in today's Growth Stock Wire that yesterday was a short term bottom in the markets. OK, maybe his timing wasn't exactly right, but Jeff's trades are traditionally pretty well on point, so I wouldn't ignore him by any means.
And finally, I'll leave you with this chart, courtesy of Agora Financial. Over the last 10 years, short term spikes in the VIX have preceeded rallies on the broader stock market.



Personally though, I'll leave these trades to folks braver and bolder than I.

Historically, commodity bull markets coincide with stock bear markets, which typically last roughly 15-20 years. We're not even 10 years into this cycle. Cheap cotton, anyone?

Monday, October 06, 2008

Quick Thoughts on The (Very) Latest Black Monday

  • Sure looked like the old Plunge Protection Team was out in full force this afternoon - could we have seen a 1000 point plunge for the Dow if not for the PPT?
  • The best place to be right now is cash. We're going to have some great buying opportunities someday, but it's not here yet. Please, protect your capital in the meantime.
  • A good friend forwarded me a copy of Dennis Gartman's letter today - Gartman is up 4% on the year, and is feeling pretty good about it, since the S&P is down over 30%. Even Gartman is fearful right now, he has no idea how to trade these markets.
  • So much for the bailout calming the markets, eh?
  • Finally - an early Christmas present for me - I woke up to find the Yen up $.04 overnight! I promptly sold. I was burned once before for not selling the Yen and Swiss Franc after a gap up, and didn't want to make that mistake again. Could the Yen keep going up? Sure, and I think it probably will. But I also think I'll have a chance to buy it back at slightly cheaper prices.

Thoughts on the Current State of the Markets

At least Lenny Bruce is not afraid.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Doug Casey Video: Interest Rates are Going to the Moon

Doug Casey, founder of Casey Research, on Fox Business describes his current outlook:
  • Interest rates are going to the moon
  • Gold, though not cheap any longer, is still a best bet

A Bailout Bill Stuffed With Pork

Thank you United States legislature, for stuffing the 451-page bailout bill with such gems as:
  • Sec. 211. Transportation fringe benefit to bicycle commuters.
  • Sec. 308. Increase in limit on cover over of rum excise tax to Puerto Rico and
    the Virgin Islands.
  • Sec. 309. Extension of economic development credit for American Samoa.
  • Sec. 325. Extension and modification of duty suspension on wool products; wool
    research fund; wool duty refunds.
  • Sec. 503. Exemption from excise tax for certain wooden arrows designed for
    use by children.
  • Sec. 512. Mental health parity.
  • Sec. 601. Secure rural schools and community self-determination program.
Additional resources:

My Current Commodity Futures Positions - 10/05/08

Top posts from the past week:

A review of my trades from the week that was:

  • Closed out my Swiss Franc position - Yikes - this trade did not work out, I got hammered big-time. The Swissie was up big on Black Monday as the carry trade unwound...but probably not as big as it should have been. That should have been a cue for me to get out, but I hung in until around the 0.90 mark and got out.

Other existing positions I've got:
  • Long the Japanese Yen - The Yen was way up early in the week as the carry trade was unwound in a big way on Black Monday. Then it came back down to Earth - but all in all, another impressive week in the face of continued (surprising?) strength from the US dollar.
  • Long Gold - Very tough week for gold, but as we've discussed in this space before, I believe the government's printing of money as fast as it can will send the price of Gold and Silver higher. And not to sound like too much of a broken record here - but how long can spot prices stay low, when you can't buy the physical stuff?
  • Short Soybeans - Soybean futures broke down in a big way this week. I plan to stay the course as a short.
  • Short 10-Year Treasuries - I am quite bearish on long-dated US Treasuries. I think interest rates have to rise, and rise significantly, as I can't imagine the world will continue to lend the US government money at these bargain basement rates. Anyone care to finance a $700 billion bailout plan, by the way?

My wish list (waiting for an uptrend...and we could be waiting for awhile):
  • Sugar
  • Cotton
  • Coffee
  • Natural Gas
  • Silver

Open Positions
Date Position Qty Month/Yr Contract Entry Price Last Price Profit/Loss
09/04/08 Long 1 DEC 08 Japanese Yen 0.9340 0.9553 $2,662.50
09/24/08 Short 1 MAR 09 T-Note (10yr) 113-245 114-315 ($1,218.75)
09/17/08 Long 1 DEC 08 Mini Gold 864.6 839.0 ($849.92)
09/09/08 Short 1 NOV 08 Mini Soybeans 1168 1/4 989 $1,792.50
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: $2,386.33

Account Balances
Current Cash Balance $50,397.12
Open Trade Equity $2,386.33
Total Equity $52,783.45
Long Option Value $0.00
Short Option Value $0.00
Net Liquidating Value $52,783.45

Cashed out: $20,000.00
Total value: $72,783.45

Weekly return: -6.0%
YTD return: -5.2%

***"Cash out" mostly means taxes, but lately I've also been using it for living expenses, and also to finance a software startup I'm working on.

Friday, October 03, 2008

Financial Times: Wealthy Investors Demanding Unprecedented Levels of Physical Gold

Has the spot price of gold - or any commodity, for that matter - ever been this out of whack with physical demand?

Courtesy of the Financial Times:

"There is an enormous pick-up in investment demand. I have never seen a market like this in my 33-year career," said Jeremy Charles, chairman of the LBMA. "The gold refineries cannot produce enough bars."


Jim Rogers on Bloomberg: September 30, 2008

One more good recent video from Jim Rogers on Bloomberg.

Why are we taking advice from people like Bernanke and Paulson? Why are we taking advice from people who have been dead wrong over and over and over again for two years?

He said he's mostly sitting and watching the markets right now.

Thursday, October 02, 2008

Jim Rogers on CNBC: October 1, 2008

"Why would anyone listen to them (Paulson or Bernanke)?"

Rogers also started buying Chinese shares a few weeks ago. A short 4 minute interview, but he's quite feisty with the CNBC talking heads.

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Clayton Makepeace: A Conspiracy of Imbeciles

A really great article here by Clayton Makepeace on the current economic turmoil. Clayton is one of my favorite marketers - I read his blog religiously for marketing insights. At the end of his article, he encouraged people to link to the article or post in its entirety - so I am doing both. Enjoy, and prepare yourself to get riled up!

A Conspiracy of Imbeciles
by Clayton Makepeace


Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barney Frank, Chris Dodd

Washington is playing you for a sucker
— shamelessly robbing you blind —
and they’re not just getting away with it;
they’re actually being rewarded for it

Here’s what you must do now
to hit them where it hurts

and quite possibly, to save your financial future

Dear Business-Builder,

I sincerely hope that by now, you fully understand how deeply all of us here at The Total Package are committed to your success.

That’s why our team spends hundreds of hours every week and well over one-hundred thousand dollars each year to bring you all the business-building, response-boosting secrets this blog has become known for. All for free.

But this issue isn’t about any of that. Because the fact is, there’s an 800-pound gorilla in the room — a crisis that overshadows and dwarfs the importance of our individual careers and businesses.

I’ve avoided writing about this situation here for months. But now, it’s getting to the point where it could hurt you. I can’t, in all good conscience, stay silent and let that happen.

Now, I’m well aware that what I’m going to say will be controversial. The truths I’m about to present will be welcomed by many of my readers. Many others will be offended by these facts. For that, I can only apologize in advance — and humbly suggest that if the truth offends you, it just might be a hint that your point of view could benefit from an honest re-examination.

I’m also aware that a few readers will complain that this is another “political” article — and that I should shut the hell up and stick to what I know.

Fair enough: I know this stuff. True, I’m only a high-school drop-out; self-taught in the ways of the world. But had my first immersion in this very early in life.

At the age of 12, I could tell you all about the Hegelian dialectic, the foundations of Fabian socialism and the tenets of free market capitalism. Since then, I’ve devoured the works of Keynes, von Mises, Friedman and many other legendary economists.

Plus, to create the promotions I do every day for financial clients, I’ve spent my life studying and writing about how the economy and the financial markets work. I have to eat, sleep and breathe politics and economics just to do my job.

And although I have, by any measure, passed this 37-year long college-level course in politics and economics with flying colors, I don’t mind telling you that I spent several additional weeks researching and documenting the particulars in this article.

Nevertheless, if it helps, you might try not thinking of this as a political article or even an economic one. Think of it as an example of how a veteran copywriter tackles a complex subject and makes it simple enough and entertaining enough to engage the man on the street.

And no matter who you are, you would do well to heed the suggestions to help you through this at the end of this article.

That said, let’s dive in …

They call this 800-pound gorilla the “Credit Crisis”
and whether you realize it yet or not,
it is the single greatest financial catastrophe
of your lifetime …

  • It has probably already cost you tens of thousands of dollars and crippled your retirement – whether you know it or not: Depending on where you live, this crisis has already slashed as much as 35% off the value of your home. And since home equity is the #1 source of retirement savings for most Americans, it is destroying the retirement dreams of millions.
  • It has cost investors and retirees and pension funds hundreds of billions more: Skyrocketing mortgage defaults have killed great American institutions like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Washington Mutual and more … caused Washington to take control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac … and gutted the share value of nearly every U.S. bank and brokerage. Millions of people who owned those stocks are now hundreds of billions; perhaps trillions of dollars poorer.
  • It has launched U.S federal deficits through the roof: The attempt to save our dying institutions has caused the U.S. government to spend $25 billion to rescue Bear Stearns … another $80 billion to save American Insurance Group (AIG) … $200 billion to save Fannie and Freddie … $165 billion on last spring’s stimulus package for consumers … and in the next few hours — a few days at the most — Washington will blow another $700 billion attempting to prevent a financial meltdown that could surpass the Great Depression.

    Altogether, that’s more than $1 trillion (one thousand billion dollars!) spent so far in an attempt to fight this crisis … an attempt that may — or may not — prevent, as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson phrased it recently, “The total meltdown of the entire U.S. financial system.”

  • It is crushing the dollar and killing jobs: A global loss of confidence in Washington’s ability to manage the U.S. economy combined with the tidal wave of paper dollars Washington has created to fight this crisis have contributed to the greatest crash in the value of the U.S. dollar in ages and raised the specter of hyper-inflation.

    Plus, as banks get stingier with borrowers out of sheer self-defense, this crisis is crushing corporate earnings and share prices. Private investors, retirees, pension funds and institutions have lost more than $3 trillion in the past 12 months alone.

    And it has stalled the U.S. economy in its tracks. America’s three largest automakers are now begging Congress for $25 billion to help them survive. Unemployment is careening higher; costing legions of Americans the ability to provide for their families.

  • It’s pushing the U.S. economy relentlessly towards what may well be a new Dark Age: With that $1 trillion plus, plus, PLUS being added to America’s skyrocketing budget deficits for 2008 and 2009, there’s a real danger this crisis will also crush the bond market … send interest rates exploding through the roof … and trigger yet another, more intense phase of business failures, stock market losses and soaring unemployment in the months ahead.

And make no mistake:
It’s not over yet. Not by a long shot.

Compared to the losses now being suffered in every part of America’s $13 trillion economy, the $700 billion bank bailout that’s being rammed through Congress is like putting a Band-Aid on a sucking chest wound.

And remember: That money is just to save the banks that have already suffered huge losses from past mortgage defaults. Not even Washington could print enough money to stop the massive NEW tidal wave of mortgage defaults that’s taking shape now.

The monthly payments on more than six million adjustable rate mortgages with an estimated face value of $1.2 trillion are poised to reset in the months ahead. Some of the payments on these loans are expected to more than double. And many of them on homes that are no longer worth anywhere near what buyers owe on them.

That means millions more mortgage defaults are dead ahead no matter what Congress does. Millions more repossessed homes will flood onto the market and homeowners will suffer even more dramatic losses of home equity as the glut of unsold properties hammers the value of our homes into the ground.

And it means even greater pain for those who had counted on that equity to see them through retirement.

It also means that lenders who are fighting for their companies’ lives will have no choice but to continue raising credit requirements … slashing credit limits … and denying loans to all but the most supremely qualified applicants.

And that, in turn, means that every manufacturer, wholesaler, retailer and service business in America is now facing the specter of plunging sales, profits, share prices and in all too many cases, bankruptcy.

As those companies slash jobs or vanish altogether, millions of family paychecks will vanish, too. Nearly every American family is now a candidate for having to live off their savings; many are sitting ducks for bankruptcy and poverty. And every American child and even the as-yet unborn will suffer the consequences and pay the price for decades to come.

But that’s not what really scares me …

What terrifies me … what wakes me in a cold sweat … is that the single most corrupt, inefficient, incompetent and idiotic institution on face of the planet is now trying to “fix” the problem.

And that especially frightens me because, the closer I examine the roots of this crisis, the clearer it becomes that it was engineered almost entirely by the very bumbling buffoons who are now charged with ending it: The U.S. government.

And yet nowhere in the media do I see anyone even trying to uncover the roots of this crisis. What caused it? How can we make sure it will never happen again?

Instead, they simply report that …

  • Banks and mortgage companies made loans to unqualified borrowers.
  • Banks then sold those loans to Fannie, Freddie and other financial institutions.
  • Fannie, Freddie and others then turned those loans into investment vehicles – and sold them to governments, banks and investors both here in the U.S. and worldwide.
  • When all those unqualified borrowers inevitably defaulted on their mortgages, these investments crashed in value.
  • And when their investments crashed, they pushed institutions and investors who had bought them to the brink – or in the case of Bear Stearns, Lehman, Fannie, Freddie, IndyMac, AIG and many other banks and investment banks, over the cliff.

But nobody I know is asking the obvious question …

“Why did so many smart lenders
make so many stupid loans
to so many people who couldn’t pay?”

It’s clear that lenders granted mortgages to millions of people with no savings or down payment … no proof of income, too little income to qualify and even no income at all … with no assets and with a record for welching on every debt they’d ever incurred; who’d had flaked out on credit cards, auto loans and pretty much every other loan they had ever been granted.

But why?

Why did lenders begin saying “YES” to these abysmal credit risks instead of their standard, resounding “NO”?

Were the CEOs at the helm of these lending institutions merely overpaid idiots who had no idea that loaning money to unqualified borrowers — and worse; to borrowers who had proven time and time again that they would NOT repay — would come back to bite them on the arse?

Or were they simply financial masochists; intentionally bankrupting their institutions and destroying their shareholders’ wealth just to get a cheap thrill?

The answer, of course, is neither. They were simply doing what they were told to do: What Washington forced them to do — under penalty of law.

Here’s the simple, frank truth about this crisis
the mainstream media will never tell you

Here’s a quick timeline — all easily checkable online:

Jimmy Carter

Gee, thanks, Mr. Carter …

1977: Jimmy Carter rams the Community Reinvestment Act through Congress. It all began 31 years ago when Billy Carter’s brother Jimmy heard that some lenders were “discriminating” against low-income borrowers …

Now, nobody I know has ever accused Mr. Carter of being the sharpest crayon in the box … But he did know one thing: He was by-god incensed — incensed, I tell you — at discrimination of any kind!

Make no mistake here: Oprah was NOT having problems getting loans; nor were most of the millions of other hard-working, responsible minority wage-earners in America.

And it’s not like credit was available to low-income white people with no savings, no down payment and lousy credit histories.

But the facts, of course, didn’t matter to Carter. All that mattered was that someone had used the “D” word, so something had to be done. Political correctness demanded it.

And so, unfazed by the fact that lenders are supposed to be discriminating when deciding who’s a good credit risk — and blissfully unburdened by even the glimmer of an understanding of the catastrophic long-term impact of his actions — Mr. Carter sprang into action.

And in no time flat, Jimmy’s Community Reinvestment Act – “CRA” for short – had sailed through the Democratic Congress.

Suddenly, any lender caught denying mortgages and other loans to low-income people faced serious penalties — including denial of applications to open new branches, to do mergers and acquisitions and other draconian measures.

1992: The Fed drops a bombshell. In what was then heralded as a "landmark study,” the Boston branch of the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that, despite the many pounds of flesh the CRA exacted from lenders who turned down low-income loan applicants, mortgage discrimination was still pandemic in the financial system.

So in a matter of days, the Boston Fed produced a manual for mortgage lenders nation-wide stating, "Discrimination may be observed when a lender’s underwriting policies contain arbitrary or outdated criteria that effectively disqualify many urban or lower-income minority applicants."

What if we just gave the homeless houses?

“Hey buddy – forget the beer.
You want a HOUSE?”

So what were these "arbitrary” and “outdated" criteria?

“Oh, little things,” said the Fed. “Like the size of the mortgage payment relative to income. And the prospective borrower’s savings or credit history.

“And don’t even bother checking to see if the borrower has any income at all,” said the Fed. “If you do … and he doesn’t … and you deny the loan … you’re a dirty, no good discriminator!”

“In fact, come to think of it,” the Fed mused, “if the applicant has participated in a credit-counseling program, that means he’s now a responsible borrower. Better grant him the loan or you’re toast!”

“Oh. And also? Welfare payments and unemployment benefits are valid income so you’d better include them when qualifying loan applicants.”

And so lenders did what they were told under penalty of law and the surge of bad loans accelerated.

1995: Bill Clinton cranks it up a notch. Thirty-six months later, still alarmed at the “discrimination” the Fed had uncovered and eager to reward low-income voters for sending Bubba to the White House, Andrew Cuomo — Clinton’s secretary of Housing and Urban Development — investigated Fannie Mae for racial discrimination.

He “found” it of course — and quickly proposed that fully HALF of Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s portfolio be made up of loans to low-income borrowers by the year 2001.

Next, Clinton introduced significant revisions to the Community Reinvestment Act. In testimony prior to the new bill’s passage, Gene Ludwig — Clinton’s Comptroller of the Currency — explained why reform was so desperately needed:

“Fifteen years ago,” said Ludwig, “Congress passed the Community Reinvestment Act. But the CRA has never achieved its full promise.

“The proposed reform package will channel billions of dollars a year in new credit into America’s distressed communities.”

PLAIN ENGLISH TRANSLATION: Hey, lenders! You’re still not giving enough money to people who can’t — or won’t — pay it back. This law ensures that you will!

Bill Clinton

“Don’t want to give loans to lousy credit risks?

“I’ll fix you!”

Staggeringly idiotic. Right? But wait — the Clinton administration was only getting warmed up.

According to the Los Angeles Times, the president and his Democratic majority in Congress "… mandated that Fannie and Freddie increase their purchases of mortgages for low-income and medium-income borrowers. Operating under that requirement, Fannie Mae, in particular, has been aggressive and creative in stimulating minority gains."

Then, the Clinton administration added the final kicker: Fannie, Freddie and the nation’s lenders would be allowed to turn these subprime loans into securities and sell them to financial institutions and investors world-wide!

Given the fact that Clinton enjoyed a Democratic majority in Congress at the time, it should come no surprise that the revisions sailed through Congress in no time flat.

1999: It’s working! Four years later, with low-income borrowing skyrocketing, an enthusiastic Fannie Mae could be heard publicly bragging about “the end of discriminatory lending in America.”

It even singled out its most shining example: A lender, it said, that worked with community organizers and followed "the most flexible underwriting criteria permitted."

Previously, this lender had made only $1 billion in low-income loans. By 1992, under the provisions of the Community Reinvestment Act, it had loaned $80 billion to low-income borrowers. And thanks to Clinton’s “refinements,” that firm’s loans to low-income borrowers were well on their way to surging to over $600 billion.

Angelo Mozilo

“We just did what Congress told us to do. ”

– Angelo Mozilo, CEO Countrywide Financial

So, one might ask, “Who was this virtuous lender that had increased its loans to low-income people a whopping 59,900% in just over one decade?”

You guessed it: It was the very lender whose demise in 2007 turned out to be the first domino to fall in the subprime lending mess: Countrywide Financial.

2001: Bush administration warns of impending doom. In Bush’s first year in office, the White House’s chief economist, N. Gregory Mankiw, warned Fannie and Freddie’s loans to unqualified borrowers and other complications at the two institutions were creating a huge risk for the entire financial system.

Representative Barney Frank (D-MA) denounced Mankiw, accusing him of having no "concern about housing."

The New York Times fell into lockstep with its Democratic masters in Congress, reporting that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were "under heavy assault by the Republicans," but that it was O.K. — because these entities still had "important political allies" in the Democrats.

Congressional Democrats dug in their heels and made absolutely sure nothing was done to address the impending crisis.

2003: The Bush administration tries to avert catastrophe a second time. Alarmed by fraud and abuses that had been discovered at Fannie and Freddie, President Bush repeatedly urged Congress to pass a bill increasing oversight on the two companies.

The Bush administration had every reason to be worried: A report by outside investigators had concluded that Freddie Mac manipulated its accounting to mislead investors. Experts were warning that Fannie Mae was not adequately hedging against rising interest rates.

Barney Frank

“These two entities – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – are not facing any kind of financial crisis.”

Representative Barney Frank (D-MA)
Arguing against Republican attempts to reform the two corrupt mortgage lenders in 2003.

Bush’s Treasury Secretary, John Snow, told the House Financial Services Committee, ”There is a general recognition that the supervisory system for housing-related government-sponsored enterprises neither has the tools, nor the stature, to deal effectively with the current size, complexity and importance of these enterprises.”

After the hearing, two Republican congressmen — Representative Michael G. Oxley of Ohio, chairman of the Financial Services Committee, and Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee — announced their intention to draft legislation based on the administration’s proposal.

”We have seen in recent months that mismanagement and questionable accounting practices went largely unnoticed” by the independent agency that regulated Fannie and Freddie, said Oxley.

But once again, congressional Democrats and their lackeys in the media scoffed at the Bush plan to save Fannie and Freddie. Some went so far as to point at the plan as proof that Republicans hate minorities and poor people.

And Barney Frank (D-MA) now the Chairman of the powerful House Financial Services Committee — the sack of excrement in a suit you see grandstanding on TV as Congress mulls this newest bail-out — denied there was any crisis at all.

“These two entities — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,” declared Frank, “are not facing any kind of financial crisis.”

And so, yet another opportunity to avert the crisis that now is — according to Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson — threatening to “completely destroy the entire U.S. financial system” was lost.

The simple truth

Despite everything the Democrats in Congress are telling you now …

Despite all the mindless spin the mainstream media is trying to shove down your throat on the six-o’clock news …

Despite all the talk about how “greedy lenders and incompetent CEOs and lax government regulation” caused this crisis …

Despite the ridiculous claims that only increased government regulation and intensified congressional oversight can end the crisis (regardless of the fact that political regulation and oversight caused it) …

Yaron Brook

“The Government Did It”

“Through the stick of the CRA and the carrot of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Fed created the mortgage market debacle.”

– Economist Yaron Brook

And despite the lies congressional Democrats and their presidential candidate are telling in an unbelievably hypocritical attempt to hang this crisis on the Bush administration (and by extension, on John McCain) …

The simple truth is, this crisis was engineered and implemented almost entirely by Democrats.

The more frightening truth is, they once again control Congress — just like they did when the laws were passed that created this crisis.

And the terrifying truth to anyone who cares about his family’s financial security is that they will probably also control the White House, come next January.

Barack Obama

The CRA the idiotic law that created this crisis also made Obama who he is today.

“Why is that so terrifying?” you ask …

Consider this: According to his autobiography, Obama spent his years after college and before he ran for the Illinois Senate becoming an expert in real estate law and fair housing while working as a “community organizer.”

What he was really doing was blackmailing Chicago lenders into throwing money at his low-income constituents. And the club Obama used to bludgeon banks into submission — into granting loans to people with no down payment, no job, no income and lousy credit histories — was called … you guessed it … “The Community Reinvestment Act of 1977.”

Now, to anyone who has even the glimmer of an understanding of how Washington works, it should come as no surprise that Mr. Obama was well-rewarded for his untiring efforts to force banks to throw money at unqualified borrowers — and it should also come as no surprise that those rewards flowed from the two quasi-private companies that benefited most from the explosion in subprime mortgages: Fannie and Freddie.

Recently, we learned that of the hundreds of political contributions made by Fannie Mae over the last couple of years, Obama received the second highest amount — second only to the Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Christopher Dodd (D-CT).

Other Democrats were also well-rewarded for this catastrophic explosion in subprime lending with lucrative jobs at Fannie and Freddie. And four of these former Fannie and Freddie big shots — former CEOs and a board member of these corrupt institutions — have been on the Obama bandwagon since Day One:

Franklin Raines

1. Franklin Raines, former Clinton administration budget director who earned $90 million in his five years as Fannie Mae CEO, from 1999 to 2004 — has been called by the Obama campaign several times for advice on (believe it or not) housing and the economy according to The Washington Post …

2. James Johnson, former aide to Democratic Vice President Walter Mondale, who earned $21 million in his last year alone serving as Fannie Mae CEO from 1991 to 1998 — was appointed to head Obama’s vice presidential selection committee …

Jamie Gorelick

3. Jamie Gorelick, former Clinton administration deputy attorney general, who earned $26 million as vice chair of Fannie Mae from 1998 to 2003 — has been mentioned as a prime candidate for a possible cabinet position in an Obama administration by insiders, and …

Rahm Emanuel

4. Rahm Emanuel, former Senior Advisor in the Clinton White House served on the Board of Directors for Freddie Mac where he is said to have opposed every reform proposed by the Bush Administration. Emanuel is credited with being the one man responsible for rallying support for Obama early on among Congressional Democrats.

Take a good, long look at those names and faces: These, along with the aforementioned Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barney Frank and Christopher Dodd, are the eight people who created this crisis and who profited the most from it — both politically and financially.

Now, their abysmal economic ignorance, political ambition and mindless greed are killing great American companies … robbing millions of their home equity and their paychecks … driving the federal deficit through the roof … and pushing us to the brink of the greatest financial catastrophe in U.S. history.

Plenty more blame to go around

Now, I make it no secret that I’m no fan of either one of the major political parties.

Like Reagan, I believe that government isn’t the solution; it’s the problem. And by studying history, I’ve learned that whenever Washington attempts to solve any problem, it’s a slam-dunk it will only wind up creating two, three or even more far more serious ones.

Even the most casual observer would conclude that as a class, politicians in both parties are notorious for their inability to locate their own arses — even if allowed to use both hands. Until now, we have tolerated them because they — and the massive, bloated, abusive, oppressive government they have created — have been merely a dead weight on us.

Not now. Now, there’s a very real risk that their lust for power, political ambition, corruption and cowardice will cost you your job, your home, and any prospects for a prosperous life.

The ONLY way to limit the damage they do to you, to me and to every other American is to keep Washington on a short leash … prohibit them from dabbling in matters they have no business fooling with … and to strictly limit the size and scope of the government.

“A pox on both their houses,” is my studied philosophy.

So I don’t mind telling you that plenty of Republicans bear guilt for this crisis as well.

Many are guilty of not having the guts to scream bloody murder while these mindless laws were being passed …

Of not taking a stand when Bush tried not once but twice to head off this crisis at the pass …

Or worse; voting with the Democratic majority for laws that elevated populism and political correctness above financial prudence.

And sure: Many CEOs at our distressed or defunct financial institutions are guilty of the same things.

And of extending the same courtesies the government demanded for low-income borrowers to the middle class; luring millions of others into more house than they could afford with no-down-payment loans and adjustable rate mortgages with irresistibly low interest rates.

Plus, the way I see it, there’s no reason why anyone with an IQ larger than my shoe size (11) would invest a penny in mortgages signed by people who had no means or no intent of repaying them.

And of course, millions of Americans are also complicit for allowing themselves to be seduced into taking on more debt than they could ever repay.

But make no mistake: It took two Democratic presidents working with Democratic majorities in Congress to engineer this crisis. Without the disastrous “fair housing” legislation imposed on this country by Carter, Clinton, Frank, Dodd and other Democratic lawmakers, this crisis would never have happened.

And never forget; it was the Democratic Party that killed not one but two attempts by the Bush administration to stop this credit catastrophe before the first subprime lender bit the dust.

This is what happens when hysterical race-baiting and populist politics are allowed to subvert prudent business practices.

This is what happens when despicable politicians are allowed to buy votes from low-income people with laws that endanger your financial survival.

This is what happens when imbeciles — most of whom have never held a real job or have had to make payroll in a company of their own — are allowed to tamper with the economy.

And now, these same clowns
are about to make matters worse
AGAIN!

Unbelievably, these same drooling morons — the very people who caused this mess in the first place — are now charged with saving our economic system from certain destruction.

Because they are the majority party in Congress, the very Democrats who engineered this crisis — most notably Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (Fannie Mae’s fair-haired boy and #1 beneficiary of its political contributions) and House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (who blocked every early attempt to avoid this crisis) — are running the show.

Joe Biden

And if the current state of the presidential polls are any indication, our next vice president — Obama’s running mate, Joe Biden, a loyal Democrat while this disaster was being created in Congress — will be available to break any ties on future Senate votes.

And of course, Obama himself — the self-proclaimed “Candidate of Change” — who has never attempted to change or reform one, blessed thing in his entire life …

Who, much to the contrary, shamelessly exploited Chicago’s notoriously corrupt “pay-to-play” political system for all it’s worth and also built his entire political base on the very law that created this crisis …

Barack Obama

… Will soon be lighting up his beloved Marlboros in the Oval Office.

So …

  • The next time you hear that your home equity has vanished into thin air and that your house is now worth less than you paid for it; maybe even less than you OWE on it …
  • Or find that your credit limit has just been slashed or you get rejected when you apply for a loan …
  • Or check your stock portfolio or retirement plan only to find that it’s a mere shadow of what it once was …
  • Or discover to your horror that our massive federal deficit has gutted your buying power and driven the price you pay at the supermarket or gas station sky high …
  • The next time you hear that a friend or family member has been laid-off, is teetering on the brink of bankruptcy and in danger of losing everything he or she has ever worked for …
  • The next time you want to kick the dog because your newly nationalized mortgage or insurance company is suddenly exhibiting all the competence of the U.S. Post Office and the sensitivity of an IRS collection agent …
  • And the next time Barney Frank or Charlie Rangel or Joe Biden or any other one of these unrepentant, hypocritical scoundrels tells you he’s raising your taxes because you’re not shouldering “your fair share” of the $1 trillion burden his blundering has saddled you with …

You know who to thank.

The moral of the story:
If you trust Washington to save you; you’re screwed.

If this crisis proves anything, it’s that these people don’t give a good goldarn about you. You’re not rich enough to bail out or poor enough to be given a hand-out.

So you, my friend, are on your own.

There are certain things you can do to protect yourself, though. And with this crisis unraveling at a breakneck pace, there’s no time to waste.

Here’s a checklist I hope will come in handy …

1. Rake in every dollar you can. First and foremost, it is absolutely critical that you do everything in your power to increase your income while you still can. Pull out all the stops in your business. If you work for someone else, work overtime or even multiple jobs if you have to. Sell stuff you don’t need or don’t use. Scrape together all the dollars you can.

2. Save every dollar you can. Guard every one of them like a junkyard dog. You’re going to need them. Go through your family budget with a fine-toothed comb and ruthlessly, unapologetically slash every unnecessary expense. The more you save now, the more you’ll have to see you through when the ca-ca hits the air conditioner.

You might also want to check with a financial advisor to explore ways to cut every payment you have to the bone. Because when the trillions of counterfeit paper dollars Washington’s now creating out of thin air begin working their way through the economy, you’ll probably be able to repay every debt you owe with dollars that are worth a fraction of what they’re worth today.

Also — whether you realize it or not, your single largest monthly expense is NOT your mortgage or your car or your health insurance or anything else. Your largest financial burden by far is the government — the federal, state and local taxes you pay dwarf every other expense you have.

So seeing a qualified tax advisor about ways to make absolutely sure you’re paying the absolute minimum required by law would be a stellar idea. Be sure not to forget your property taxes. If your home is declining in value, you may be able to appeal for a downward adjustment that could save you thousands.

3. Watch your bank accounts like a hawk. Whatever you do, do NOT assume that your bank is safe just because this most recent bail-out proposal is likely to become law.

Most banks have already suffered massive losses. Many are wounded; bleeding; struggling to survive. And many still have huge amounts of toxic loans in their portfolios that are steadily eroding their asset bases even further.

The bail-out is NOT going to replace the money they originally paid to buy those investments — and that means they’ll be booking even more losses as they dump those investments into the U.S. Treasury in the months ahead.

If you have more than $100,000 in a bank, make absolutely sure that no single account at any one bank contains even a single dollar more than the limit that’s insured by the FDIC. If you’re not clear on the rules, check out the FDIC website at WWW.FDIC.GOV

4. Program your business for success in this tough environment. If you are starting a business or are considering expanding your business’ product line, carefully consider this new economic environment when setting your strategy.

Think especially hard about recession-proof products and services — the things people can’t live without. Seriously consider products and services that cater to the very wealthy who are likely to be least affected as this crisis unfolds. Also consider things that might help beleaguered wage-earners, consumers, taxpayers, and other business owners get through this alive.

5. Expect stocks and mutual funds to plunge. If you own stocks — either directly, in a mutual fund or ETF or through a retirement or pension plan — you should seriously consider the risk you’re taking with that money.

Some analysts, including the ones who have been the most accurate in their warnings about this crisis from the get-go, are warning that, with the economy and stock market now as nervous as a hooker at a snake-handler convention, the next chunk of bad news that hits the wires could be the straw that breaks the market’s back.

And please for all our sakes:
HELP US GET THE WORD OUT!

Send this article — in its entirety — to everyone you know. Post it or link to it on every blog, every forum you can think of. Send more links to everyone on your Contacts List and to reporters at the newspapers you read and the TV networks you watch.

Write letters to both of your Senators and Congressperson and urge everyone you know to do the same.

Demand that they repeal the Community Reinvestment Act that caused this crisis (yes, it’s still on the books and still being enforced!).

Tell them you know what they did to cause this crisis.

Demand that criminals in Congress who actually DID cause this crisis suffer at least as distressing a fate as the corporate CEOs they’re scapegoating.

The sooner Washington gets the message that we’re on to them and that we’re not going to take it any more, the sooner things can begin to change.

This is YOUR financial future we’re talking about here. If Washington’s power brokers have proven anything, it’s that they can NOT be trusted to do the right thing until millions of us rise as one and shout “Enough!”

Yours for Bigger Winners, More Often,
Clayton Makepeace Signature
Clayton Makepeace
Publisher & Editor
THE TOTAL PACKAGE™