Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Huge Oil Inventories Just Reported

This morning, the US Department of Energy reported, well, HUGE inventories in oil. Oil's decline hastened on the news.

I'm wondering if oil has placed in its short term top, on it's way back down to the $40 range, or perhaps lower (maybe even $20 as predicted here?)

After rallying north of $140 last summer, oil will post a decidedly "lower high" if we have indeed already seen the short term top in the black goo. Whether or not it posts a lower low remains to be seen, but I wouldn't rule it out.

Many folks get outright pissed if you suggest that oil could fact a recent outraged commenter referred to me as a "moron."

Now that very well may be the case, but let me ask, who could have pictured $3 natural gas, when prices looked like they'd never dip below $10 again, and everyone was talking about Peak Drilling in North America?

Peak Oil is not as scary when demand evaporates faster than supply comes offline. Sure, things may get ugly again if and when the global economy actually recovers, but that won't help your portfolio in the interim. If you're thinking long term, I commend you, that's just not for me any longer.

And remember that the last time oil rolled over, the equity markets were soon to follow. It will be interesting to see if a top in oil again precedes a stock market collapse.

Hat tip to The Daily Crux for digging out this link.

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