Wednesday, June 10, 2009

How to Time the Treasury Market

Surprisingly, Treasuries have been rallying in the middle of each month, while falling at the beginning and end of the month, according to some keen observations by Tom Dyson.

Why so? Tom says that for some reason, the market does not seem to be accounting for the fact that the government is issuing huge amounts of Treasuries at the beginning and end of the month.

In the middle of the month, when the Treasury is not issuing bonds, and the Fed is still buying, prices rally.

Thinking of shorting the long bonds? May want to wait until the end of the month.

Besides...we could have some serious resistance upcoming. I prefer to stay on the sidelines for now. If interest rates go as high as we think they will...easily to double digits...then there will be plenty of time to make money on this trade.

The 10-year bond is breaking down.

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