Take the Steelers -7 in Super Bowl 43

To figure out where to place my Super Bowl bet (I'm sure you're stunned a commodity trader like me would ever gamble), I consider two factors:

1. Which team do the talking heads seem to be favoring
2. Where is the "public" placing it's bets

Last year, this technique worked well, as I took the Giants with the points, because I thought the spread was too high because everyone was scared to bet against the Pats.

This year, my highly inexact science of gauging the media (read: ESPN) has me thinking that there is a little too much "The Cardinals could keep this game really close" talk.

The spread seems to low to me - I thought it'd be double digits - maybe because everyone is fearing the underdog after last year.

As a backup, I also like to check the public betting percentage, as a contrarian indicator. The site I use is www.thespread.com - right now it's down, presumably from all the degenerates trying to check the latest line. When I had checked earlier in the week, 58% of the public was betting in favor of the Cards.

With both indicators lining up, we're talking the Steelers -7 of the Cardinals tomorrow in Super Bowl 43.

And, of course, can't wait for the halftime show - what if Bruce rocks all night like he's at MSG, and they never get to play the 2nd half?

Super Bowl Spread

Real quick, as I am on my way out to start drinking beer...and I'm not sure anyone who reads this blog would be the gambling type. Yeah right - ha!

Last I saw, it was Pats -12. The line opened a couple of weeks back a point or two higher. From what I've been reading, this spread is still a point or two too high - even folks in Vegas have admitted it.

People are still terrified to bet against the Pats since they opened the season covering every week - over the last half of the season though, including the playoffs, they have not covered once. Remember, never bet on a trend to end. Take the Giants with the points today.

Full disclosure: I am a long suffering Bills fan with an ingrained hatred of the Pats. Needless to say, I will be taking the Giants plus the points.