Monday, September 21, 2009

Dollar Up, Everything Else Down - Here We Go Again?

I saw a familiar sight on the charts today - green for the dollar, and red for just about everything else. This was a very common sight last fall and winter.


This currency picture, courtesy of Barchart.com, used to be an all-to-familiar one.

Then when the famous "March 6" lows held, and spring sprung, we saw just the opposite happen - the dollar went down, while stocks and commodities all partied like it was 1999.

Are we really out of the woods? When we see days like today, it reinforces my skepticism. Although stocks were barely off, look at how the currency and commodity markets reacted. Look at oil - which really took it on the chin!

The stock market sneezed, while oil caught a cold.
(Source: Barchart.com)

If oil and China were rip roaring to fresh highs, I might feel a little better about the fate of US equities. But the non-confirmation being displayed by both is a bit disconcerting...especially as both rolled over first during the last downturn.

Further reading: Why commodity and shipping weakness could be foreboding signs for stocks.

2 comments:

Brian said...

How is your Dollar Trade Going???

Brett Owens said...

Looking good today as you'd imagine with the markets down. Still not sure if we've found the bottom in the dollar, or top for the markets yet, so holding tight for now.

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