Quick Thoughts on The Latest Black Monday

• When stocks require a $700 billion infusion in order to tread water - is the risk/reward of being long stocks really worth it?

• Granted, there are a lot of quality stocks being thrown out like the proverbial baby with the bath water. If a rising tide lifts all boats, does it follow that a falling tide sinks them?

• If the government is reaction this way with the stock market only off ~20%, what will it do if stocks fall 50%? Stocks are still quite expensive by historical standards - it could be a slippery slope downhill.
  

• Remember, bull markets in stocks usually begin with P/E's in the single digits, after everyone has thrown in the towel on stocks. I still see everyone in the financial media trying to pick a bottom - not nearly enough desperation for my liking.

• While they rarely ring a bell at the top or bottom, desperation in mainstream publications are often a good start. Remember this BusinessWeek cover from 1979?

• It may not yet be a global recession, but global stock markets look like they are already pricing in a global recession. Stock market action usually precedes normal economic action by 6-9 months - by the time a recession hits the midway point, stocks have usually hit bottom.

• I sure love commodities coming out of this global recession. I have a long buying list, and we already have some very cheap prices staring us in the face. Exhibit A: Cotton futures fell below 60 cents today.