Well, just bought my gold contracts back again. It's open season on the dollar - everyone take your shots!
For those just tuning in - the Fed cut rates another 0.25. Inflation, here we come!
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
The Outlook for Gold - and Why I Just Sold
The long term outlook for gold looks quite promising. First, from Agora Financial's 5 Min. Forecast:
Open interest in NYMEX’s (COMEX) gold futures contracts breached an all-time high of 500,000 this week. Never have so many traders been betting for — or against — gold than right now. 
1. The dollar is due for a pop.
2. I am not sure the Fed will cut rates. I thought about this over the weekend, then the WSJ confirmed that the Fed is debating whether or not to cut, not how much to cut. This could cause a pop.
Hey, the trend of the dollar is down. And the trend of gold is up. So if you are short the dollar and long gold, you'll be OK in the longer run. But I thought I'd try to make a cute short term trade out of this.
Open interest in NYMEX’s (COMEX) gold futures contracts breached an all-time high of 500,000 this week. Never have so many traders been betting for — or against — gold than right now.
So… you might ask… where’s the smart money, long or short?
“‘The funds’ are long about 46% of the market,” reports Ed Bugos from Vancouver, referring to investors who’re betting the price will go up. “‘The commercials’ are short about 63% of the market,” eyeballing banks. The funds and commercials are a good guide to where your money should be.
“Throughout the ’90s and all the way through 2006,” Ed says, “the funds were right in gold and the commercials were wrong — like clockwork.”
“Starting in October 2005, over a nine-month period that followed record “fund” longs, gold rallied almost $300, or over 70%.” Ed’s looking for a repeat this year. We’ll keep you posted…
Gold closed on Friday at $783.90, another 27-year high. Gold is therefore only $16.10 below $800, which has been my upside target for this year. The gold chart below suggests we may soon exceed that price.
1. The dollar is due for a pop.
2. I am not sure the Fed will cut rates. I thought about this over the weekend, then the WSJ confirmed that the Fed is debating whether or not to cut, not how much to cut. This could cause a pop.
Hey, the trend of the dollar is down. And the trend of gold is up. So if you are short the dollar and long gold, you'll be OK in the longer run. But I thought I'd try to make a cute short term trade out of this.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Weekly Positions Update - 10/28/07
Forgot to update over the weekend - quite a week last week! Most of the gains were thanks to the currency rallies.
I picked up an Aussie $ contract this morning so that I can track it - don't plan to add to it unless it drops.
Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $88,172.45
I picked up an Aussie $ contract this morning so that I can track it - don't plan to add to it unless it drops.
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Strike | Call/Put | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss | Market Value | Action |
| 10/29/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Australian Dlr | 0.9188 | 0.9211 | $230.00 |   | |||
| 09/24/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Cotton | 66.00 | 64.77 | ($615.00) | | |||
| 01/22/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 08 | Cotton | 63.00 | 75.85 | $6,425.00 | | |||
| 04/16/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 08 | Cotton | 64.50 | 75.85 | $5,675.00 | | |||
| 07/27/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Coffee 'C' | 115.30 | 122.25 | $2,606.25 | | |||
| 06/19/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Coffee 'C' | 120.50 | 122.25 | $656.25 | | |||
| 09/26/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Coffee 'C' | 129.50 | 122.25 | ($2,718.75) | | |||
| 03/29/07 | Long | 1 | NOV 09 | Soybeans | 828 | 942 | $5,700.00 | | |||
| 09/26/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Sugar #11 | 10.02 | 10.10 | $89.60 | | |||
| 08/11/06 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Sugar #11 | 14.50 | 10.10 | ($4,928.00) | | |||
| 06/04/07 | Long | 2 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 10.05 | 10.11 | $134.40 | | |||
| 08/01/07 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 10.48 | 10.11 | ($414.40) | | |||
| 10/18/06 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 12.08 | 10.11 | ($2,206.40) | | |||
| 09/24/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Mini Gold | 738.2 | 792.4 | $1,799.44 | | |||
| 09/24/07 | Long | 2 | DEC 07 | Mini Gold | 738.3 | 792.4 | $3,592.24 | | |||
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: | $16,025.63 | ||||||||||
| Current Cash Balance | $67,146.82 |
| Open Trade Equity | $16,025.63 |
| Total Equity | $83,172.45 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $83,172.45 |
Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $88,172.45
Sold Currency Positions
On Friday I sold all of my Euro and Aussie $ positions. Both ended the week in a flurry, with the Euro topping 1.44 and the Aussie $ topping 0.92.
This rally was thrilling, but ultimately made me too nervous to stay in the positions. Everyone today is bearish on the dollar - and when that happens, it's due for a rally. It may be hard to believe, but it wouldn't take much for it to pop.
Ultimately the trend is down, but it's rare for something to go straight down. For example, what if Bernanke surprised everyone and held rates? Surely the dollar would pop then. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's scary right now with everyone on the same side of the trade.
This rally was thrilling, but ultimately made me too nervous to stay in the positions. Everyone today is bearish on the dollar - and when that happens, it's due for a rally. It may be hard to believe, but it wouldn't take much for it to pop.
Ultimately the trend is down, but it's rare for something to go straight down. For example, what if Bernanke surprised everyone and held rates? Surely the dollar would pop then. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's scary right now with everyone on the same side of the trade.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Cotton Stocks Low, Acreage Down
As we expected, cotton is being ignored by farmers. Projected 2008 acreage is low.
One Day Dollar Rally Over
It was a nice buying opportunity for some currencies yesterday, but the window didn't stay open long. I'm glad I had time (and the guts - it wasn't an easy call) to pull the trigger.
From the Daily Pfennig's Chuck Butler:
"Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... I sure received a shock yesterday morning... After ranting about the euro, blah, blah, blah... I hit the send button, and then got ready for work... After arriving, and turning on my currency screens, I saw euros had fallen 2 whole euros! That was in less than an hour!
OK... Now my tail was between my legs, and I whimpered off to a company meeting. After an hour and a half, I returned to my desk to see that the euro had bounced off its low, but still much lower on the day from where it stood overnight! So, what caused this huge sell off? Well... Margin calls on stock losses was a reason... And so was a technical correction...
The margin calls on stock losses can also be blamed on the sell off of Gold too... As the day went on... Stock recovered, which meant risk was creeping back into the markets, and led to Carry Trades being put back on... Japanese yen, lost the luster of the 113 handle it held yesterday morning.
So... Does this change everything I said yesterday about the G-7 giving the markets the green light to sell dollars? NO! And I still believe that the euro will be trading up to 1.50 within the next 6 months..."
From the Daily Pfennig's Chuck Butler:
"Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well... I sure received a shock yesterday morning... After ranting about the euro, blah, blah, blah... I hit the send button, and then got ready for work... After arriving, and turning on my currency screens, I saw euros had fallen 2 whole euros! That was in less than an hour!
OK... Now my tail was between my legs, and I whimpered off to a company meeting. After an hour and a half, I returned to my desk to see that the euro had bounced off its low, but still much lower on the day from where it stood overnight! So, what caused this huge sell off? Well... Margin calls on stock losses was a reason... And so was a technical correction...
The margin calls on stock losses can also be blamed on the sell off of Gold too... As the day went on... Stock recovered, which meant risk was creeping back into the markets, and led to Carry Trades being put back on... Japanese yen, lost the luster of the 113 handle it held yesterday morning.
So... Does this change everything I said yesterday about the G-7 giving the markets the green light to sell dollars? NO! And I still believe that the euro will be trading up to 1.50 within the next 6 months..."
Monday, October 22, 2007
The Outlook for Gold
"There are just too many factors pushing gold higher," says James Turk of GoldMoney.
Trade Alerts - Bought Australian $ and Euro
The Aussie $ and Euro are being sold off as a result of unwinding carry trades. With the Yen rallying, traders are rushing out of their carry trade positions.
I see this as a buying opportunity, and I'll gladly take the other side of the trade here.
I see this as a buying opportunity, and I'll gladly take the other side of the trade here.
| Ticket # | Reference # | Time Entered | Status |
| 7621771 | 10/22/07 09:43:15AM | FILLED | |
| BUY 1 DECEMBER 2007 EURO CURRENCY (GLOBEX) MARKET | |||
| BOUGHT 1 DECEMBER 2007 EURO CURRENCY (GLOBEX) AT 1.4147 (10/22/07 09:43:16AM) | |||
 | |||
| 7621746 | 10/22/07 09:40:59AM | FILLED | |
| BUY 1 DECEMBER 2007 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (GLOBEX) MARKET | |||
| BOUGHT 1 DECEMBER 2007 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (GLOBEX) AT 0.8759 (10/22/07 09:41:00AM) | |||
Sunday, October 21, 2007
What To Do About Coffee
Jurgens Bauer says hang on for now until the market bottoms.
I have to agree - they don't ring a bell at the bottom, but be careful before jumping in. However I believe the long side of this trade is the right one long term.
I have to agree - they don't ring a bell at the bottom, but be careful before jumping in. However I believe the long side of this trade is the right one long term.
Weekly Positions Update - 10/21/07
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Strike | Call/Put | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss | Market Value | Action |
| 10/03/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Australian Dlr | | | 0.8820 | 0.8923 | $1,030.00 | | |
| 10/16/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Australian Dlr | | | 0.8843 | 0.8923 | $800.00 | | |
| 10/15/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Australian Dlr | | | 0.8960 | 0.8923 | ($370.00) | | |
| 09/24/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Cotton | | | 66.00 | 65.40 | ($300.00) | | |
| 01/22/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 08 | Cotton | | | 63.00 | 75.68 | $6,340.00 | | |
| 04/16/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 08 | Cotton | | | 64.50 | 75.68 | $5,590.00 | | |
| 10/05/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Euro Currency | | | 1.4173 | 1.4311 | $1,725.00 | | |
| 07/27/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Coffee 'C' | | | 115.30 | 124.55 | $3,468.75 | | |
| 06/19/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Coffee 'C' | | | 120.50 | 124.55 | $1,518.75 | | |
| 09/26/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Coffee 'C' | | | 129.50 | 124.55 | ($1,856.25) | | |
| 03/29/07 | Long | 1 | NOV 09 | Soybeans | | | 828 | 934 | $5,300.00 | | |
| 09/26/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Sugar #11 | | | 10.02 | 10.23 | $235.20 | | |
| 08/11/06 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Sugar #11 | | | 14.50 | 10.23 | ($4,782.40) | | |
| 06/04/07 | Long | 2 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | | | 10.05 | 10.14 | $201.60 | | |
| 08/01/07 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | | | 10.48 | 10.14 | ($380.80) | | |
| 10/18/06 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | | | 12.08 | 10.14 | ($2,172.80) | | |
| 09/24/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Mini Gold | | | 738.2 | 768.6 | $1,009.28 | | |
| 09/24/07 | Long | 2 | DEC 07 | Mini Gold | | | 738.3 | 768.6 | $2,011.92 | | |
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: | $19,368.25 | ||||||||||
| Current Cash Balance | $49,560.22 |
| Open Trade Equity | $19,368.25 |
| Total Equity | $68,928.47 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $68,928.47 |
Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $73,928.47
Friday, October 19, 2007
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Buying Opp - Aussie $$$
We have an even nicer opportunity to buy some Aussie dollars.
From the Daily Pfennig's Chuck Butler:
The Bank of Canada (BOC) did leave rates unchanged yesterday, as expected... The Bank said that "against a backdrop of robust global economic expansion and strong commodity prices”, Canada’s “economy is now operating further above its production potential than had been previously expected." The went on to warn about the risks of a global slowdown.
Makes you wonder why they kept the dust covers on interest rates, eh? Well... I think I explained all that yesterday, so I won't get into it again... But, the BOC is walking in tall cotton right now, and they had better be careful... Runaway inflation could hit their economy in a NY minute...
So... With the BOC warning about a global slowdown, the Commodity currencies got sold... So... One Monday, the high yielders got sold, and on Tuesday the Commodity currencies, many of which are also high yielders, got sold... One would expect a move similar to this given the strong upside move of the Commodity currencies recently. So... Hold on tight, use your seatbelt, and keep your arms and legs inside the vehicle at all times!
From the Daily Pfennig's Chuck Butler:
The Bank of Canada (BOC) did leave rates unchanged yesterday, as expected... The Bank said that "against a backdrop of robust global economic expansion and strong commodity prices”, Canada’s “economy is now operating further above its production potential than had been previously expected." The went on to warn about the risks of a global slowdown.
Makes you wonder why they kept the dust covers on interest rates, eh? Well... I think I explained all that yesterday, so I won't get into it again... But, the BOC is walking in tall cotton right now, and they had better be careful... Runaway inflation could hit their economy in a NY minute...
So... With the BOC warning about a global slowdown, the Commodity currencies got sold... So... One Monday, the high yielders got sold, and on Tuesday the Commodity currencies, many of which are also high yielders, got sold... One would expect a move similar to this given the strong upside move of the Commodity currencies recently. So... Hold on tight, use your seatbelt, and keep your arms and legs inside the vehicle at all times!
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
What's Tanking Coffee
From the DJ news wires:
On ICE Futures U.S., pit-traded Arabica coffee futures sank to 2 1/2-week lows as funds and small speculators liquidated and batches of sell stops were triggered during the retreat. Sellers were spurred by predictions from Brazilian meteorologist Somar and other forecasters that the nation's producing areas - where it's been too dry for spring blossoming - will get rain Thursday and Friday, followed by more showers next week. Pit December closed 9.25 cents lower at $1.3005 a pound.
When this shakeout is complete, I think we'll have a nice buying opportunity. As painful as this is (and it is hurting me big - I'm down over 15% overall in the last 2 days!) - you have to think all the speculators have ditched their positions, giving us a nice base for the next leg up.
Remember, the fundamentals are still strong. And nobody really knows if this crop is going to be damaged or not - the rain may be too little, too late.
On ICE Futures U.S., pit-traded Arabica coffee futures sank to 2 1/2-week lows as funds and small speculators liquidated and batches of sell stops were triggered during the retreat. Sellers were spurred by predictions from Brazilian meteorologist Somar and other forecasters that the nation's producing areas - where it's been too dry for spring blossoming - will get rain Thursday and Friday, followed by more showers next week. Pit December closed 9.25 cents lower at $1.3005 a pound.
When this shakeout is complete, I think we'll have a nice buying opportunity. As painful as this is (and it is hurting me big - I'm down over 15% overall in the last 2 days!) - you have to think all the speculators have ditched their positions, giving us a nice base for the next leg up.
Remember, the fundamentals are still strong. And nobody really knows if this crop is going to be damaged or not - the rain may be too little, too late.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Trade Alert - Bought More Australian $
I just put in an order for another Aussie $$$ contract - going to take advantage of today's pullback.
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Strike | Call/Put | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss | Market Value | Action |
| 10/15/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Australian Dlr | 0.8960 | 0.8957 | ($30.00) | | |||
Coffee Futures Off Big
Well my first morning back - and I see that all of my gains from last week were completely wiped out by a sharp drop in coffee this morning. I am guessing this is weather related. My December contracts closed today just above 130, after flirting with the 140 mark late last week.
It must be raining in Brazil, or at least rain is forecasted. The question now is what to do. The old saying is to buy on the rumor and sell on the news. Well, it looks like the news hit - at least some of it. Unfortunately I am not a very good trader - I just try to play the fundamentals long term.
So I am planning to hold. I may pickup another contract if I can find some news indicating this sell-off to be overdone. Long term coffee is a buy, so I will endure the swings and just bide time until we get the super spike that's coming.
Here's a good blog that I often read by Jurgens Bauer - he mentions how strong the demand picture is for coffee. It's plain and simple - the world is drinking more and more coffee.
My recommendation here: hold (if you are already leveraged) or buy (if you are looking for an entry point for a longer term position)
It must be raining in Brazil, or at least rain is forecasted. The question now is what to do. The old saying is to buy on the rumor and sell on the news. Well, it looks like the news hit - at least some of it. Unfortunately I am not a very good trader - I just try to play the fundamentals long term.
So I am planning to hold. I may pickup another contract if I can find some news indicating this sell-off to be overdone. Long term coffee is a buy, so I will endure the swings and just bide time until we get the super spike that's coming.
Here's a good blog that I often read by Jurgens Bauer - he mentions how strong the demand picture is for coffee. It's plain and simple - the world is drinking more and more coffee.
My recommendation here: hold (if you are already leveraged) or buy (if you are looking for an entry point for a longer term position)
Friday, October 05, 2007
2 Good Videos for the Next Week
I have two good video clips to leave you with for the next week. I'm heading to Costa Rica for my honeymoon - hopefully the hotel room will have CNBC so that I can still follow the markets. And maybe I can convince the wifey to swing by a coffee or sugar plantation to get a bird's eye view.
Anyway here are two good clips of Agora's Kevin Kerr on Bloomberg and CNBC. Kevin also believes that cotton will be the next ag commodity to skyrocket.
Enjoy - and good trading next week!
Anyway here are two good clips of Agora's Kevin Kerr on Bloomberg and CNBC. Kevin also believes that cotton will be the next ag commodity to skyrocket.
Enjoy - and good trading next week!
Weekly Positions Update - 10/07/07
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Strike | Call/Put | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss | Market Value | Action |
| 10/03/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Australian Dlr | 0.8820 | 0.8945 | $1,250.00 | | |||
| 09/24/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Cotton | 66.00 | 63.25 | ($1,375.00) | | |||
| 01/22/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 08 | Cotton | 63.00 | 72.21 | $4,605.00 | | |||
| 04/16/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 08 | Cotton | 64.50 | 72.21 | $3,855.00 | | |||
| 10/05/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Euro Currency | 1.4173 | 1.4158 | ($187.50) | | |||
| 07/27/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Coffee 'C' | 115.30 | 137.00 | $8,137.50 | | |||
| 06/19/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Coffee 'C' | 120.50 | 137.00 | $6,187.50 | | |||
| 09/26/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Coffee 'C' | 129.50 | 137.00 | $2,812.50 | | |||
| 03/29/07 | Long | 1 | NOV 09 | Soybeans | 828 | 895 | $3,350.00 | | |||
| 09/26/07 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Sugar #11 | 10.02 | 9.79 | ($257.60) | | |||
| 08/11/06 | Long | 1 | MAR 08 | Sugar #11 | 14.50 | 9.79 | ($5,275.20) | | |||
| 06/04/07 | Long | 2 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 10.05 | 9.79 | ($582.40) | | |||
| 08/01/07 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 10.48 | 9.79 | ($772.80) | | |||
| 10/18/06 | Long | 1 | JUL 08 | Sugar #11 | 12.08 | 9.79 | ($2,564.80) | | |||
| 09/24/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Mini Gold | 738.2 | 747.4 | $305.44 | | |||
| 09/24/07 | Long | 2 | DEC 07 | Mini Gold | 738.3 | 747.4 | $604.24 | | |||
| Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions: | $20,091.88 | ||||||||||
| Current Cash Balance | $49,593.37 |
| Open Trade Equity | $20,091.88 |
| Total Equity | $69,685.25 |
| Long Option Value | $0.00 |
| Short Option Value | $0.00 |
| Net Liquidating Value | $69,685.25 |
Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $74,685.25
Trade Alert - Bought Euro
Looks like the dollar rally has finally fizzled - so I'm going to hop aboard the Euro train on the way to 1.45.
BOUGHT 1 DECEMBER 2007 EURO CURRENCY (GLOBEX) AT 1.4173 (10/05/07 09:09:43AM)
BOUGHT 1 DECEMBER 2007 EURO CURRENCY (GLOBEX) AT 1.4173 (10/05/07 09:09:43AM)
Coffee Still Strong - No Rain in Brazil
Coffee in Brazil needs significant rain in October to help the crop flower. However it has been quite dry for a while, and there is no significant rain in the forecast for the next 7 days.
Thus, coffee prices remain strong. Could we see a super-spike coming if this harvest is trashed?
The article goes onto state that India's coffee crop is disappointing as well. Though Brazil is far and away the largest coffee exporter.
Thus, coffee prices remain strong. Could we see a super-spike coming if this harvest is trashed?
The article goes onto state that India's coffee crop is disappointing as well. Though Brazil is far and away the largest coffee exporter.
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Trade Alert - Bought Australian $
Huh? OK, OK I know - it's not a commodity. But it is a commodity currency, and one that the folks over at the Daily Pfennig are bullish on. Chris Gaffney believes it could soon achieve parity with the US dollar.
And I love the statement by Treasurer Peter Costello (courtesy of the Daily Pfennig) that the government won't take any steps to limit the currency's rise because it trades in an open market.
Amen!
And I love the statement by Treasurer Peter Costello (courtesy of the Daily Pfennig) that the government won't take any steps to limit the currency's rise because it trades in an open market.
Amen!
| Date | Position | Qty | Month/Yr | Contract | Strike | Call/Put | Entry Price | Last Price | Profit/Loss | Market Value |
| 10/03/07 | Long | 1 | DEC 07 | Australian Dlr | 0.8820 | 0.8820 | $0.00 |
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Tantalum Anyone?
Anyone out there ever trade Tantalum? Agora's Kevin Kerr is bullish on this obscure metal.
My brokerage account doesn't have contracts available to trade - just curious if anyone out there has experience.
My brokerage account doesn't have contracts available to trade - just curious if anyone out there has experience.
Buying Opportunity
Commodities (and foreign currencies) are down across the board, as the dollar has bounced sharply up the last 2 days. I think this was overdue - there are always corrections after such sharp moves, and the dollar has been taken to the woodshed hard since Bernanke caved.
If you invest in commodities on fundamentals, nothing has changed. Buy more if you can, but don't over-leverage. If you're more technically oriented, you may want to wait for the end of this dollar upswing, whenever that may be, to add more.
I'm holding pat for the moment - don't feel comfortable adding more leverage, but definitely not looking to sell either. If you're looking to add, take a hard look at coffee and sugar - both held up strong today while crude, gold, cotton, etc. were getting slaughtered.
Here's a great column I often read about the currency markets, The Daily Pfennig. Chris Gaffney mentions this is a good buying opportunity for those who were kicking themselves about missing the dollar's latest move down - I think the same is true for commodities.
If you invest in commodities on fundamentals, nothing has changed. Buy more if you can, but don't over-leverage. If you're more technically oriented, you may want to wait for the end of this dollar upswing, whenever that may be, to add more.
I'm holding pat for the moment - don't feel comfortable adding more leverage, but definitely not looking to sell either. If you're looking to add, take a hard look at coffee and sugar - both held up strong today while crude, gold, cotton, etc. were getting slaughtered.
Here's a great column I often read about the currency markets, The Daily Pfennig. Chris Gaffney mentions this is a good buying opportunity for those who were kicking themselves about missing the dollar's latest move down - I think the same is true for commodities.
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