Nice Long Term Gold/Silver Charts

These nice long term log charts from GoldMoney.com help put the current bull market in perspective.

Some high level takeaways for me:

1. This is a tough market to play around on the short side of - long only for me
2. It's important that your entries and exits keep you in the game for these nice moves up

I'm still waiting for a 20-day high to get back in - haven't seen this yet, just some major seesaw action for the last month. Many people smarter than me advocate just buying now and accumulating at these 'cheap' prices - something to consider for sure.

Slowing Aussie Retail Sales

Hopes for a near term Aussie bounce are looking dimmer - from today's Daily Pfennig:

In Australia overnight... Retail Sales slowed for a second month only advancing .2% in October, although September's sales were revised upward to .7%, this October reading has put a lid on any rate increase before year-end... The Reserve Bank meets tonight to discuss rates, and at one time I held out hope for another rate hike before year-end... Unfortunately, this Retail Sales report probably put a damper on that rate hike, now, at least...

This won't help the sagging A$ either... With Carry Trades being unwound, the high yielders get taken to the woodshed and beaten like a rented mule... And with no support from the Central Bank, rate hike wise, the A$ will probably have to remain in the woodshed even longer...

If the Carry Trades are truly being unwound, and it's not another false dawn, look for yen and Swiss francs to become the last ones on the roster but number ONE in the hearts of the fans!

The Aussie chart does not look great either, but there does appear to be some support around the .8650 mark. As much as it hurts to take such a large bath on one position, it will likely be time to sell if it drops below the support levels. Contracts are trading at .8719 as I type this.

Stratfor: Oil Prices Will Plummet When Asia Cracks

I read an interesting counterpoint to the "oil is never going lower" argument this morning in my morning Stratfor brief (subscription required).

Here's a quick summary:

• In the '97 - '98 Asian financial crisis, crude fell as low as $8/barrel
• High oil prices today depends upon continued growth of Asian economies
• The questionable characteristics of Asian financing -- subsidized loans and the tendency to prioritize full employment and expansion of market share above rates of return, efficiency and profitability -- have not disappeared since 1998
• China escaped the carnage in 1998, but they have a very "Asian" economy today
• China - and Asia - could crack again, which would send oil prices plummeting

Whether you agree or disagree, it's important to at least recognize the possibility of a major pullback.

Pullback in Commodity Prices Hurts Aussie $

From Today's Daily Pfennig:

The Australian dollar fell over the weekend as a combination of the unwinding of the carry trade and reports of a widening trade deficit combined to work against the AUD$. The currency also weakened as the price of commodities that Australia exports stayed near the lowest in two months. The trade deficit expanded to just under A$ 3 million in October from a revised A$ 1.92 million a month earlier. Falling prices of commodities, which contribute about 17 percent to Australia's economy was the main reason for the rising deficit. We probably haven't seen the end of the volatility in the Australian dollar, but remain confident that the A$ will hold its value in the log run. Both China and India will continue to grow, and their demand for commodities will expand with the growth of their economies. This growing demand will keep a floor under the Aussie dollar.

Weekly Positions Update - 12/02/07

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Strike	Call/Put	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
11/12/07	Long	2	DEC 07	Australian Dlr			0.8795	0.8839	$880.00
11/16/07	Long	1	DEC 07	Australian Dlr			0.8850	0.8839	($110.00)
11/09/07	Long	1	DEC 07	Australian Dlr			0.9138	0.8839	($2,990.00)
11/09/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Coffee 'C'			126.05	128.65	$975.00
11/28/07	Long	1	JAN 08	Rough Rice			13.080	12.870	($420.00)
11/28/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Soybeans			1108	1097 1/2	($525.00)
06/04/07	Long	2	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.05	10.21	$358.40
08/01/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.48	10.21	($302.40)
10/18/06	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			12.08	10.21	($2,094.40)
10/31/07	Long	1	DEC 07	Swiss Franc			0.864500	0.8860	$2,687.50
11/21/07	Long	1	DEC 07	Swiss Franc			0.908100	0.8860	($2,762.50)
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:									($4,303.40)

Current Cash Balance	$62,395.10
Open Trade Equity	($4,303.40)
Total Equity	$58,091.70
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$58,091.70

Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $63,091.70