Chart: Gold vs. Stocks

This chart blew me away. Stocks, priced in gold, have been tanking for 8 years running.

Oil vs. Natural Gas

The ratio of the price of oil, in comparison to natural gas, is very high right now compared with historical standards. This article does a good job of explaining this (it's a few months old, but the ratio is still roughly the same).

The author is not a fan of going long nat gas and shorting oil - but I disagree. I think that is a logical 'hedge fund-esque' strategy, given the current price discrepancy. Oil could have trouble holding at current levels if the US does fall into recession (I think we're already in one). Sure, most of the growth in oil demand is from China - but will it continue at this pace if the US consumer stays in the fertile position?

Anyway a viable strategy to consider - though I am still partial to the grains and softs at this point in time.

The "Big Canadian Lumber Dump"

Very interesting opportunity ahead for us, perhaps, in the lumber market.

I have not traded lumber before, but that could change once this downtrend stops. We'll keep a close eye on the lumber charts here for you.

Weekly Positions Update - 01/27/08

My bad (thumping my chest with my palm). Tough week.

Good thing I made those "crash proof" trades Monday night - I think I managed to sell at the absolute bottom. Ah well, that's usually the way it works.

I thought about adding a YTD calculation to improve my mood - but I'll hold the gimmicks for now.

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Strike	Call/Put	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Cotton			66.45	67.89	$720.00
01/09/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Cotton			69.61	67.89	($860.00)
01/22/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Japanese Yen			0.9460	0.9380	($1,000.00)
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Sugar #11			11.10	11.90	$896.00
06/04/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.05	12.33	$2,553.60
08/01/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.48	12.33	$2,072.00
12/20/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			11.37	12.33	$1,075.20
01/02/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Swiss Franc			0.899500	0.9124	$1,612.50
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:									$7,069.30

Current Cash Balance	$72,417.54
Open Trade Equity	$7,069.30
Total Equity	$79,486.84
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$79,486.84

Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $84,486.84

Weekly return: -17.0%

Zimbabwe's $10 Million bill

Don't laugh too hard - we're not that far off ourselves at this rate.