Super Bowl Spread

Real quick, as I am on my way out to start drinking beer...and I'm not sure anyone who reads this blog would be the gambling type. Yeah right - ha!

Last I saw, it was Pats -12. The line opened a couple of weeks back a point or two higher. From what I've been reading, this spread is still a point or two too high - even folks in Vegas have admitted it.

People are still terrified to bet against the Pats since they opened the season covering every week - over the last half of the season though, including the playoffs, they have not covered once. Remember, never bet on a trend to end. Take the Giants with the points today.

Full disclosure: I am a long suffering Bills fan with an ingrained hatred of the Pats. Needless to say, I will be taking the Giants plus the points.

Weekly Positions Update - 02/03/08

Date	Position	Qty	Month/Yr	Contract	Strike	Call/Put	Entry Price	Last Price	Profit/Loss
01/30/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Cocoa			2284	2317	$330.00
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Cotton			66.45	68.16	$855.00
01/09/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Cotton			69.61	68.16	($725.00)
01/22/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Japanese Yen			0.9460	0.9422	($475.00)
02/01/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Rough Rice			15.010	15.170	$320.00
12/20/07	Long	1	MAR 08	Sugar #11			11.10	12.30	$1,344.00
06/04/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.05	12.98	$3,281.60
08/01/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			10.48	12.98	$2,800.00
12/20/07	Long	1	JUL 08	Sugar #11			11.37	12.98	$1,803.20
01/02/08	Long	1	MAR 08	Swiss Franc			0.899500	0.9193	$2,475.00
01/28/08	Long	1	APR 08	Mini Gold			935.0	913.1	($727.08)
Net Profit/Loss On Open Positions:									$11,281.72

Current Cash Balance	$72,373.72
Open Trade Equity	$11,281.72
Total Equity	$83,655.44
Long Option Value	$0.00
Short Option Value	$0.00
Net Liquidating Value	$83,655.44

Cashed out: $5,000.00
Total value: $88,655.44

Weekly return: 5.2%

GoldMoney: Flight From The Dollar

GoldMoney's James Turk suggests it may be time to party like it's 1974.

Jim Rogers: Avoid Platinum

Look at cotton, coffee, and sugar, he says.

This is interesting because I was really kicking myself for prematurely selling my platinum position after it took off last week due to the S Africa drama.

NY Times: Rethinking the Meat-Guzzler

Thanks to my boy Cincotta for sending this along (pounding my chest and pointing East right now).

Increased meat consumption will mean more meat production - which means more grain consumption. Which means higher grain prices. But meat production won't be able to keep up with consumption - so that means higher meat prices too. Brings a tear to my commodity trading eye - nothing like a bull market to tug at my emotions.

Plus don't forget the Fed is doing its best to flush the dollar down the porcelain throne - so everything will increase in dollar terms anyway.