tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21569063.post6697877763073519430..comments2024-02-08T02:16:54.318-08:00Comments on Commodity Bull Market: Why Commodity/Shipping Weakness Could Predict Next Leg Down in StocksBrett Owenshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04741732770011620478noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21569063.post-72994089130838732022009-09-02T09:16:37.411-07:002009-09-02T09:16:37.411-07:00I actually think Prechter's deflationary argum...I actually think Prechter's deflationary argument is more short term than commonly believed as well. I think he's looking for a total destruction of credit by 2012 or so...at which point he admits hyperinflation could take over, as the little money left over is inflated away.<br /><br />Prechter and the EWI guys expect "Wave 3 down" to happen really soon...as soon as right now...and their case is that tens of trillions in credit will go "poof!" - and even Ben can't print that much (in the short term).Brett Owenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04741732770011620478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21569063.post-34590820492950975742009-09-01T16:44:16.223-07:002009-09-01T16:44:16.223-07:00Newcomer to the site, but some very interesting co...Newcomer to the site, but some very interesting comments and links. Just some quick thoughts if I may . . .<br />I think Prechter's central argument for a deflationary scenario is that 'despite' governmental(i.e. the central banks) efforts at increasing the money supply they will be unable to do so. <br />In other words, despite the fed/government's 1. monetizing debt/increasing the deficit 2. buying assets (stock,homes) directly from the banks and 3.essentially nationalizing banks (forcing them to extend credit on favorable terms) the money supply will contract. I find this argument may hold true for the short term, but 'helicopter Ben' does have just a little more power than Prechter gives him credit for. I'm no Elliot wave theorist, but I'm finding it harder and harder to reconcile myself to a deflationary scenario (longterm). <br />p.s. check out this sweet article from M. Farber--> Inflation breeds more inflation, Thorstein Polleit.The Speculator: One Year to 2 Million $$ in the Futures Marketshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02382996673889243602noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21569063.post-50979708142304365402009-08-17T15:18:37.832-07:002009-08-17T15:18:37.832-07:00Well I guess we'll just have to agree to disag...Well I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree :)<br /><br />Though I have to concede one key point - that of me being delusional!Brett Owenshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04741732770011620478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21569063.post-44847448054523905102009-08-16T20:55:03.203-07:002009-08-16T20:55:03.203-07:00If you think for a moment the market can take out ...If you think for a moment the market can take out the lows, you are delusion. All the stocks that made the lows were taken out of the index. The only way we make new lows is if CSCO, IBM and other tech stocks make new lows. The last time I check, these companies are making money and guided higher...<br /><br />Giving credence for the deflation argument is a waste of breath. How can printing more money make it more valuable?? Are you saying all the losers living off social security will have their buying power increased several fold!??<br /><br />The whole credit contraction argument is bs also. People don't buy food, water, and refuel their gas tanks on credit. They buy cars/houses/jewelry on credit! So yes, people are going to downgrade what they purchase, but the necessities to stay alive are going to continue to inflate as it also has.Hubrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16641421235418037908noreply@blogger.com